STL 2009: Same Story ; Great Pitching / Average Offense

[Providence A's]

Gone
2B/SS 3.5 Jorge Cantu
C 2.0 Ramon Castro
SP 1.5 Jeff Suppan
1B 2.5 Richie Sexson
SP 2.5 Jeff Weaver
SP 4.5 spec Chris Mason
SP 5.0 spec James Houser
SS/2B 3.5 spec Cliff Pennington
RF 4.0 spec Cody Johnson
SP 3.5 spec Lawrence Mickey
2B 2.0 spec Omer Dole
2009 1st round pick (20th)

Additions
SP 4.0 Carlos Zambrano
SP 3.0 Jeff Francis
MR 3.5 Dan Wheeler
MR 2.5 Julio Mateo
1B 4.0 spec Stephen Head
2B/SS/3B 4.0-4.5 spec Tomas Carbajal
C 1.0 Bradley Davis
OF 1.5 Tim Raines Jr.
LF/RF 3.5 spec Michael Alber

The only loss that will hurt this season is Cantu, but I'm hoping Carbajal's strengths will balance out Cantu's. Carbajal plays better defense, has better speed, has a better eye, and avoids strikeouts more. Cantu hits for more power and more contact.

Pitching

rotation
1. Harden 4.0
2. Zambrano 4.0
3. Haren 3.0
4. Francis 3.0
5. Chen 2.5

bullpen
LR/MR TJ Tucker 2.5
LR/MR Julio Mateo 2.5
MR Brad Thompson 3.0
MR Jose Capellan 3.0
SU Dan Wheeler 3.5
SU JJ Putz 3.5
CL Huston Street 4.5

injury replacements in AAA
SP Joe Saunders 1.5
MR Josh Hancock 1.5
MR Mike Lincoln 1.0
MR Thomas Hottovy 1.0

Position Players

starters
C 3.0 Yadier Molina RHP / C 1.0 Bradley Davis LHP
1B 4.0 spec Stephen Head RHP / 1B 1.0 Jayson Vargo LHP
2B 4.0 spec Tomas Carbajal
SS 4.5 spec Sergio Santos
3B 3.0 Chone Figgins
LF 3.0 Melvin Mora
CF 3.0 Jeremy Reed
RF 3.0 Craig Wilson

bench / role players
2B/SS/3B 2.5 Travis Hanson
LF/RF 2.5 Nelson Cruz
OF 2.5 Juan Encarnacion

injury replacements in AAA
OF 2.0 Larry Bigbie
SS 1.5 David Eckstein
OF 1.5 Tim Raines Jr.

My overall pitching should be even better than last season, which was 4th in ERA IIRC. Zambrano and Francis are solid additions with Haren having room to move into the same class as Harden and Zambrano. He is 7,7,9 out 9,8,10 and gained ratings toward the end of last season. Chen may be moved and if he is, I'll go to a 4 man like I did in the 2nd half of last season. The bullpen is much improved and better able to handle an injury or two this time around. We have Putz for the entire year, added Wheeler and Mateo to the already solid core of Street, Thompson, and Capellan. Tucker is a wild card as he either has a good season or a terrible one...he has alternated and should be due for a good one this year.

I'm hoping my offense scores just enough runs to put us in a position to win because I'll take my pitching staff against anyone's. We lost a little power, but improved team speed and defense. A lot will depend on how rookies Carbajal and Head do and how much Santos continues to fill out (his power went from 5 to 7 after being called up...hopefully it reaches his 9). We need solid years from Mora, Wilson, and Figgins again. Molina still has room to improve his ratings and needs to have a solid year offensively this year. I'm hoping Reed has a true breakout season. He has room to finish developing. He was on pace for his best season last year before an injury that cost him a month. He still set a career high for homers and should easily top 20 this year and hopefully closer to 30 or so.

prediction
I think we'll have a fight in the tight NL Central with the Cubs and Brewers again...it will probably come down to the last week or two, but neither of those teams did much this off-season, which puts the Cardinals in a better position IMHO. Either we'll just barely make the playoffs or just barely miss it, but we're on pace to make over $20 mil and look defend our 2 year reign of having the highest total attendance.

[DMBZeppelin]

The Cubs got some good development from Hirsh, Hodges, and Pena over last season. If the Cubs pitching staff fills out it's the best in the Central. The Cubs also have $55M in FA money and have almost $30M coming off the books next year. So if need be they can look to make a move. Zambrano is an awesome addition for you though. If he develops I like your chances more then the 90 wins I predicted for you. I think Cantu being gone will hurt you though. It's never good to lose contact and power.

[Providence A's]

sorry, I'll take my rotation over your's or anyone's:

Starting Rotation

#	L/R	Name	Age	Ratings
1	R	Jason Hirsh	26	9-8-10, 9 Endurance, 52% Ground (9-8-9 Talent)
2	R	Lance Broadway	25	6-8-9, 9 Endurance, 65% Ground (5-9-9 Talent)
3	L	Joe Kennedy	29	6-7-8, 8 Endurance, 52% Ground (6-7-9 Talent)
4	R	Dallas Buck	23	7-6-8, 9 Endurance, 63% Ground (8-8-9 Talent)
5	R	Edwin Jackson	25	8-6-8, 9 Endurance, 59% Ground (9-8-9 Talent)

Starting Rotation

#	L/R	Name	Age	Ratings
1	R	Rich Harden	27	10-8-9, 9 Endurance, 47% Ground (10-9-10 Talent)
2	R	Carlos Zambrano	27	9-7-8, 9 Endurance, 56% Ground (10-7-9 Talent)
3	R	Dan Haren	28	7-7-9, 7 Endurance, 46% Ground (9-8-10 Talent)
4	L	Jeff Francis	28	7-8-8, 8 Endurance, 47% Ground (6-8-8 Talent)
5	L	Bruce Chen	31	6-7-8, 8 Endurance, 70% Ground (7-8-9 Talent)

Harden > Hirsch due to past performance and talent
Zambrano > Broadway due to past performance and talent
Haren > Kennedy due to ratings, talent, and he had better numbers last season
Francis = Buck for now, but if Buck develops, then your #4 is better than mine...
Jackson has better talent than Chen, but hasn't done much at the major league level...Chen had a solid year last year. Where is Jackson? The DL? I can't find him on your roster. I'd say equal for now, but if Jackson develops and performs, yea, he'd be better...

[DMBZeppelin]

sorry, I'll take my rotation over your's or anyone's:

Starting Rotation

#	L/R	Name	Age	Ratings
1	R	Jason Hirsh	26	9-8-10, 9 Endurance, 52% Ground (9-8-9 Talent)
2	R	Lance Broadway	25	6-8-9, 9 Endurance, 65% Ground (5-9-9 Talent)
3	L	Joe Kennedy	29	6-7-8, 8 Endurance, 52% Ground (6-7-9 Talent)
4	R	Dallas Buck	23	7-6-8, 9 Endurance, 63% Ground (8-8-9 Talent)
5	R	Edwin Jackson	25	8-6-8, 9 Endurance, 59% Ground (9-8-9 Talent)

Starting Rotation

#	L/R	Name	Age	Ratings
1	R	Rich Harden	27	10-8-9, 9 Endurance, 47% Ground (10-9-10 Talent)
2	R	Carlos Zambrano	27	9-7-8, 9 Endurance, 56% Ground (10-7-9 Talent)
3	R	Dan Haren	28	7-7-9, 7 Endurance, 46% Ground (9-8-10 Talent)
4	L	Jeff Francis	28	7-8-8, 8 Endurance, 47% Ground (6-8-8 Talent)
5	L	Bruce Chen	31	6-7-8, 8 Endurance, 70% Ground (7-8-9 Talent)

Harden > Hirsch due to past performance and talent
Zambrano > Broadway due to past performance and talent
Haren > Kennedy due to ratings, talent, and he had better numbers last season
Francis = Buck for now, but if Buck develops, then your #4 is better than mine...
Jackson has better talent than Chen, but hasn't done much at the major league level...Chen had a solid year last year. Where is Jackson? The DL? I can't find him on your roster. I'd say equal for now, but if Jackson develops and performs, yea, he'd be better...

You are better 1-3 even if my guys develop. I just think I'd be slightly deeper. Because I think Kennedy > Chen (not by much) but like Broadway over Francis. Truth be told we don't know how Hirsh will do. He was only 9-7-7 against RHB last season. Not 9-8-10. If Haren fills out though your rotation goes to another level that I won't compete with unless Hughes develops.

Jackson was on the 15-Day DL going into the post season. I haven't had a chance to activate him. You need to go to salary report to find him, or wait until ST tonight.

[Providence A's]

even if you think Kennedy is slightly better than Chen, Chen is my #5 while Kennedy is your #3. Also, Broadway is your #2 while Francis is my #4...that says it all right there as far as who is deeper.

Yea, I found Jackson in the players section...just wondering why he wasn't on your MLB or AAA teams...figured he must have been hurt, but his profile didn't mention an injury.

Regardless, I finished 2 games behind you last year and 6 games behind Milwaukee...it will be close. Of the 3 of us, I think Milwaukee did the least and will be hurt by that. You're relying more heavily on development as your team is the youngest. My team age is under 30 and we sort of have a balance. I improved my pitching, which was hard to do considering we had the 4th ERA. But I am relying on a few offensive parts to produce like they have in the past, a few to improve, and a few prospects to produce.

I can see it going any possible way to be honest, but if I had to guess I'd say Milwaukee will be left out in the cold with you or me winning the division and the other possibly winning the wild card. I expect Florida/Philadelphia to compete for the division and wild card, too.

[DMBZeppelin]

I can see it going any possible way to be honest, but if I had to guess I'd say Milwaukee will be left out in the cold with you or me winning the division and the other possibly winning the wild card. I expect Florida/Philadelphia to compete for the division and wild card, too.

Ya when making my prediction I wasn't sure what to think. I mean obviously I know all three of us will be good. I picked all three to have 90+ wins. While even in the predictions thread. I've said I'm not the hugest fan of your offense. That's just on paper. It wouldn't surprise me at all if you won the title. I think the races will come down to head to head matches though. I mean at one point last year I thought I had the division locked up. Then the Brewers got hot and the Cubs got ice cold. You also had a bad start last year. Who knows how things might have turned out otherwise. This should be a fun division for the next few seasons.