Hot Seat Answers #70 - NYgiantsFan5689

[NYgiantsfan5689]

You weren't put on LJ's list

But you're clearly the caretaker of the 50 year old Zito, who infact is relegated to a wheelchair, and you have to wipe her ass and change her granny diapers every day.

[cjkalt]

Someone forgot what happens to stoners here:

Notre Dame's McAlarney suspended after arrest - Men's College Basketball - ESPN

[NYgiantsfan5689]

No one said you got caught

[General]

Zito, re: GM power rankings.

RELEASE THE FILES.

[NYgiantsfan5689]

Zito, re: GM power rankings.

RELEASE THE FILES.

^ what he said

[Dry1313]

Someone forgot what happens to stoners here:

Notre Dame's McAlarney suspended after arrest - Men's College Basketball - ESPN

Way to answer my post about Lester.

Guess you missed it.


Or ignored its brilliance

[Porter]

Zito, re: GM power rankings.

RELEASE THE FILES.

Or forever be called Kingdom_of_Selig.

[Kingdom]

I ....yeah. I guess now's a good time since Nick keeps going MIA and it would bring back attention to the TPSL section.

Aiiight, I'll do it.

But I'm completely revamping things.

[HollywoodLeo]

NYGF, pick somebody.

I'm hesitant to put Trendy Bastard on as he only has 6 posts on these forums and hasn't been participating in these hot seats.

If I can have your and his word that he'd answer his questions I'll put him on.

Otherwise, pick someone else.

[NYgiantsfan5689]

I nominate Hammer. Does that work? If not you can just pick someone yourself, no one has expressed specific interest

[cjkalt]

Tom Verducci pointed out that an increase of over 30 innings leads to a dramatic drop in production the year following.

Let's check out 07's violators:
Ian Kennedy: Lat strain/Dramatic rise in WHIP/ERA (+61 IP)
Fausto Carmona: DL for Hip/Rises in ERA and WHIP (+56.1)
Ubaldo Jimenez: 4-9/4.22/1.54 Pre-All Star Break (+41.2)
Tom Gorzelanny: Time on DL and in AAA finished with a 6.66 ERA (+40.1)
Dustin McGowan: 6-7 Record before shoulder surgery (+38.2)
Chad Gaudin: 90 innings in mostly relief (+36)
Yovanni Gallardo Two knee surgeries (+33)

Bring up Verlander? Fine.

Increase in 77.2 IP from 05-06...seemed fine. Went 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA last year.

And for the record, Lester's professional high was 163.0, and he went way up to 237.0, an increase of 74 innings, not 41.2.

I'm not saying that he's going to be terrible, but I bet he spends at least two terms on the DL and will be lucky to win 15 games.

I'd also expect drop offs from Nolasco (+50), Kershaw (+49), Pelfrey/Danks/Jurrens as well.

The only guy who may be exempt from the rule is Tim Lincecum because of his odd delivery and his freak status.

None of the guys you mentioned are as talented as Lester, who has already won a WS game (which btw I forgot his postseason innings which puts it closer to 200) to clinch a WS. Hell none of those guys are proven starters in the pros like Lester is, each of the guys you listed came on the scene 1 year and was gone the next, this is Lester's 4th MLB season, he's not going to have a sophomore slump since he's more experienced than that

Jon Lester is a top 3-5 LHP in the game, and to think of him as any less is being a Yankee homer. He has pitched 36 playoff innings with a ERA of 2.25. His regular season ERA has gone down every year.

[Dry1313]

Tom Verducci pointed out that an increase of over 30 innings leads to a dramatic drop in production the year following.

Let's check out 07's violators:
Ian Kennedy: Lat strain/Dramatic rise in WHIP/ERA (+61 IP)
Fausto Carmona: DL for Hip/Rises in ERA and WHIP (+56.1)
Ubaldo Jimenez: 4-9/4.22/1.54 Pre-All Star Break (+41.2)
Tom Gorzelanny: Time on DL and in AAA finished with a 6.66 ERA (+40.1)
Dustin McGowan: 6-7 Record before shoulder surgery (+38.2)
Chad Gaudin: 90 innings in mostly relief (+36)
Yovanni Gallardo Two knee surgeries (+33)

Bring up Verlander? Fine.

Increase in 77.2 IP from 05-06...seemed fine. Went 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA last year.

And for the record, Lester's professional high was 163.0, and he went way up to 237.0, an increase of 74 innings, not 41.2.

I'm not saying that he's going to be terrible, but I bet he spends at least two terms on the DL and will be lucky to win 15 games.

I'd also expect drop offs from Nolasco (+50), Kershaw (+49), Pelfrey/Danks/Jurrens as well.

The only guy who may be exempt from the rule is Tim Lincecum because of his odd delivery and his freak status.



Expecting Lester to have the season from last year is ridiculous. Expecting Beckett to be as bad as last year is also ridiculous. I'd say you'll pick up a few wins, but mark my words, Lester won't be the same.

He might be; I can't say for sure. But stats don't lie, and I'd side with them 9/10 over any assumptions any fan, no matter how devout, will make.

Huge Drop-off Predicted:
Jon Lester has gone >7IP 2x and has only 3 QS on the year. He's 3-4 with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP and a .311 BAA. He's also allowed 35 ER in 53.1 IP.

Ricky Nolasco is 2-4 with a 7.78 ERA and has yet to eclipse 6 IP and has 1 QS. He has a 1.68 WHIP and a .328 BAA

Clayton Kershaw is 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA. He's gone for 7 IP 3x and and has 3 QS on the year. He has a 1.24 WHIP and a .205 BAA

Moderate Drop-off Predicted
Jair Jurrjens is 4-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 6 QS. He's gone for >6 IP 5x and has a 1.13 WHIP and a .216 BAA.

John Danks is 3-3 with a 4.60 ERA and 4 QS. He's gone >6 IP 1x and has a 1.37 WHIP and a .269 BAA.

Mike Pelfrey is 4-1 witha 4.61 ERA and his last 3 consecutive outings were quality starts. He's gone >6 IP 2x and has a 1.54 WHIP and a .291 BAA





Looks like I nailed 'em so far except for Jurrjens, huh CJ

[Providence A's]

Looks like I nailed 'em so far except for Jurrjens, huh CJ

dude, you know you can argue with a Red Sox fan. c'mon now

[ljshorty89]

Huge Drop-off Predicted:
Jon Lester has gone >7IP 2x and has only 3 QS on the year. He's 3-4 with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP and a .311 BAA. He's also allowed 35 ER in 53.1 IP.

Ricky Nolasco is 2-4 with a 7.78 ERA and has yet to eclipse 6 IP and has 1 QS. He has a 1.68 WHIP and a .328 BAA

Clayton Kershaw is 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA. He's gone for 7 IP 3x and and has 3 QS on the year. He has a 1.24 WHIP and a .205 BAA

Moderate Drop-off Predicted
Jair Jurrjens is 4-2 with a 1.96 ERA and 6 QS. He's gone for >6 IP 5x and has a 1.13 WHIP and a .216 BAA.

John Danks is 3-3 with a 4.60 ERA and 4 QS. He's gone >6 IP 1x and has a 1.37 WHIP and a .269 BAA.

Mike Pelfrey is 4-1 witha 4.61 ERA and his last 3 consecutive outings were quality starts. He's gone >6 IP 2x and has a 1.54 WHIP and a .291 BAA





Looks like I nailed 'em so far except for Jurrjens, huh CJ

Danks and Pelfrey haven't done poorly either. Pelfrey has rebounded nicely from a dead arm period, and Danks doesn't have awful numbers. We'll have to see how the rest of the season works out, but they may have beaten the Verducci Effect.

[realmofotalk]

Clayton Kershaw is 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA. He's gone for 7 IP 3x and and has 3 QS on the year. He has a 1.24 WHIP and a .205 BAA

still better than Phillip Hughes. Funny how Prince Phillip's stats have gotten worse each year even though his innings pitched have been fewer each year.