Hurricane Rita

[CincyRedsFan30]

I figured I'd start a thread on this monster. Here are the lastest 11 PM readings. This thing could be very serious:

WTNT33 KNHC 210248
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS...
...CHANGES MADE TO FLORIDA WARNINGS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
KEY WEST AND DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EAST AND NORTH TO OCEAN REEF...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

AT 11 PM EDT...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE HABANA...AND LA HABANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE
OF PINAR DEL RIO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70
KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM...
NORTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL
TAKE RITA AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WEDNESDAY
MORNING... AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 61 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 51 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN ALL AREAS.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN CUBA
AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.1 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[CincyRedsFan30]

I'm waiting on the updated discussion, but this thing especially hits home for me since I have a couple of family members in Houston...

000
WTNT43 KNHC 210311
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECON AIRCRAFT AT 21/0020Z IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT INDICATED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103
KT...ROUGHLY 93 KT SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES FROM KEY
WEST HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 113 KT AT 9500 FEET IN SPOTS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE 105-107 KT RANGE...WHICH
EQUALS ABOUT 95 KT SURFACE WINDS. A RECON PASS THROUGH THE 28 NMI
DIAMETER EYE AT 0204Z INDICATED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 965 MB...
WHICH ROUGHLY EQUALS 95 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT...OR JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. RITA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING A
LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE STRONG
RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 18Z GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD TO NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER. HOWEVER
...BOTH MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE 21/00Z 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS
TEXAS TO DECREASE BY 20 METERS...WHEN IN FACT... 21/00Z UPPER-AIR
DATA INDICATE THE HEIGHTS DID NOT CHANGE AND THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS HAS REMAINED QUITE STRONG WITH HEIGHTS NEAR
6000 METERS. AS A RESULT...LESS WEIGHT WAS PALCED ON THE GFS MODEL
...SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOO
QUICKLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND
EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2
DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL
TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST
THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW
ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL
THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL.
THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE
SHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE
PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT
IN 60 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 24.1N 83.2W 95 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 24.2N 85.2W 105 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 24.4N 87.5W 120 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 24.6N 89.4W 125 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 25.1N 91.4W 125 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 27.1N 94.7W 120 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 30.5N 96.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0000Z 34.5N 96.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$

[ghettochild]

its supposed to hit galveston and then head straight up here to dallas/ft worth

LET IT RAIN LET IT POUR!!

[Hmark6]

its supposed to hit galveston and then head straight up here to dallas/ft worth LET IT RAIN LET IT POUR!!

Are you rooting for the Hurricane?

[HuskerFan2002]

By looking at the latest path projections, it looks like Rita's tremoundous rainfall may curve through most of the midwest. We could use the rain.

[Kingdom]

Why do they name the hurricanes? And why do they name them, what they name them? I've always hated that. We're going to gracefully give something that tears apart cities a name. It's not like a child being born.

[RockSports17]

Why do they name the hurricanes? And why do they name them, what they name them? I've always hated that. We're going to gracefully give something that tears apart cities a name. It's not like a child being born.

Best guess is that they're easier to keep track of and such. That's just my two cents.

As for this hurricane, I haven't been able to hear tons about it. Would anybody enlighten me and tell me if this thing is going to hit New Orleans. That'd be just horrible.

[Kingdom]

http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/arti...00010000000001

[CincyRedsFan30]

It won't hit New Orleans. Corpus Christi and Houston/Galveston could be in trouble though(the latter two especially if the wind field starts expanding as it looks like it is right now).

I expect this thing to be a Category Five when the next update comes out, as the minimum central pressure has went down 10 MB in the last hour and fifteen minutes, which is an extreme drop. I would guess the winds will be up to at least 150, and probably 155 or 160 MPH.

Here is the updated forecast and discussion:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 211444
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...WINDS NOW
ESTIMATED 140 MPH WINDS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE MARQUESAS KEYS WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.3 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[CincyRedsFan30]

000
Wtnt43 Knhc 211447
Tcdat3
Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 16
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Am Edt Wed Sep 21 2005

The Reconnaissance Plane Will Not Be In The Area Of Rita Until Later
This Morning. However...satellite Images Indicate That The Cloud
Pattern Is Typical Of An Intense Hurricane With A Clear Eye
Surrounded By Very Deep Convection. Initial Intensity Is Adjusted
Upward To 120 Knots At This Time. However...objective T-numbers From
Both Tafb And The University Of Wisconsin Cimss Are Peaking Near
7.0 On The Dvorak Scale...suggesting Winds Of Near 140 Knots. I
Will Wait For The Plane To Reach Rita To Increase The Winds
Further...if Necessary. The Environment Is Conducive For
Strengthening And Rita...as Katrina Did...will Be Crossing The Loop
Current Or An Area Of High Heat Content Within The Next 12 Hours Or
So. This Would Aid The Intensification Process. Thereafter...the
Intensity Will Be Controlled By Changes In The Eyewall Which Are
Difficult To Predict. The Heat Content In The Western Gulf Of
Mexico Is Not As Favorable As In The Area Of The Loop Current So
Slight Weakening Is Anticipated....but Rita Is Expected To Make
Landfall As A Major Hurricane...at Least Category Three.

There Has Been No Change In The Steering Pattern. Rita Is Moving
Westward At 11 Knots South Of A Strong High. As The High Moves
Eastward...rita Will Gradually Begin To Move Toward The West-
Northwest And Northwest Basically Toward The Texas Coast. The
Official Forecast Is Very Close To The Model Consensus And Has Not
Changed From The Previous Forecast.

Both The Gfs And The Gfdl Suggest That The Wind Field Will Expand.
Therefore The Forecast Wind Radii Have Been Adjusted Accordinly. On
This Track And Due To The Large Wind Field Associated With Rita...a
Hurricane Watch Will Likely Be Issued Later This Afternoon Or
Tonight.

Forecaster Avila


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 21/1500z 24.3n 85.9w 120 Kt
12hr Vt 22/0000z 24.5n 87.9w 135 Kt
24hr Vt 22/1200z 25.0n 90.0w 130 Kt
36hr Vt 23/0000z 25.7n 92.0w 125 Kt
48hr Vt 23/1200z 26.6n 94.0w 120 Kt
72hr Vt 24/1200z 29.0n 96.5w 100 Kt...inland
96hr Vt 25/1200z 32.5n 97.5w 40 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 26/1200z 35.5n 97.0w 25 Kt...inland


$$

[DirtyKash]

Why do they name the hurricanes? And why do they name them, what they name them? I've always hated that. We're going to gracefully give something that tears apart cities a name. It's not like a child being born.

List of hurricane names used, which are recycled every 6 years unless a name is retired (like a jersey number in baseball):

http://www.fema.gov/kids/hunames3.htm

I can barely contain myself. We'll have Hurricane Ernesto next year.

All hurricanes are given names. Why is that? To help us identify storms and track them as they move across the ocean. Remember, there can be more than one hurricane at a time and without naming them, we could get confused and which storm we're talking about. For hundreds of years, hurricanes in the West Indies were named after the particular saint's day on which the hurricane occurred. An Australian meteorologist began giving women's names to tropical storms before the end of the 19th century. In 1953, the U.S. National Weather Service, which is the federal agency that tracks hurricanes and issues warnings and watches, began using female names for storms.

In 1979, both women and men's names were used. One name for each letter of the alphabet is selected, except for Q, U and Z. For Atlantic Ocean hurricanes, the names may be French, Spanish or English, since these are the major languages bordering the Atlantic Ocean where the storm occur.

So who decides what names are used each year? The World Meteorological Organization uses six lists in rotation. The same lists are reused every six years. The only time a new name is added is if a hurricane is very deadly or costly. Then the name is retired and a new name is chosen.

[HuskerFan2002]

There was a guest on Leno last month and she was a stand-up comedian. She wanted to know why there weren't any African American names for hurricanes.

[CincyRedsFan30]

The latest minimum central pressure is being reported as 923 MB. I expect winds to be at least 150 MPH when the 5 PM EDT advisory is issued. This thing is an absolute monster right now.

[Kingdom]

Shaniqua the Hurricane.

Stephon the Hurricane.

Shaquille the Hurricane.

[DirtyKash]

Hurricane Jamal. Hurricane LaTonya. Heh.