Hurricane Rita

[Kingdom]

Or LaToya

[Kingdom]

I still don't see why they bother to name them. At that, the names are usually homofied. Ernesto? Eesh. Poor kid(s) with that name.

[Hmark6]

Name it Hurricane Getthef*ckouttamyway!

[Kingdom]

Americans are too sensitive for F words, homey.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I might be imagining, but I seem to see a very SLIGHT turn to the Northwest happening right now. Sometimes jogs in one direction or another occur before the final turn, which is what this could be. I think the center will end up coming ashore a little further North/Northeast than most of the models are indicating. One model shows it actually coming shore EAST of Galveston, and I don't buy that outlier, but I do think it will come onshore a little bit closer to Galveston(and not quite as close to Corpus Christi) than some of the projections are indicating it will. It still might be a little closer to Corpus Christi or in between Corpus Christi and Galveston, but I do think it will be a bit further North. Just my guess, but that's how I see it as of right now.

[CincyRedsFan30]

000
Wtnt63 Knhc 211955
Tcuat3
Hurricane Rita Tropical Cyclone Update
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
255 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 21 2005

Data From Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate That Rita Has Reached
Category Five Intensity With Estimated Maximum Sustained Surface
Winds Of 165 Mph. This Will Be Reflected In The 4 Pm Cdt Advisory.

Forecaster Avila

$$

[ghettochild]

Let It Rain Let It Pour

[RockSports17]

I still don't see why they bother to name them. At that, the names are usually homofied. Ernesto? Eesh. Poor kid(s) with that name.

Had to laugh when I came across this while looking at my S3SL team.

http://tmfsl.biz/League/p534.html

[Kingdom]

Tell mission to nickname him Hurricane!

[RockSports17]

Take a look at this idiot. A category 5 hurricane is coming, and he's standing out there trying to get hit by a wave.

Link

[CincyRedsFan30]

000
Wtnt33 Knhc 220000
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 17a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
7 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 21 2005

...category Five Hurricane Rita Continuing To Deepen...
...now The Third Most Intense Hurricane In The Atlantic Basin
On Record...

A Hurricane Watch Has Been Issued For Gulf Of Mexico Coast From Port
Mansfield Texas To Cameron Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued For East Of Cameron To Grand
Isle Louisiana And From South Of Port
Mansfield To Brownsville.

The Government Of Mexico Has Issued A Tropical Storm Watch For The
Northeast Coast Of Mexico From Rio San Fernando Northward.

A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours. A Tropical Storm
Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The
Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

Interests In The Northwestern Gulf Of Mexico Should Monitor The
Progress Of Dangerous Hurricane Rita.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 7 Pm Cdt...0000z...the Eye Of Hurricane Rita Was Located Near
Latitude 24.5 North...longitude 86.8 West Or About 580 Miles
East-southeast Of Galveston Texas And About 680 Miles East-southeast
Of Corpus Christi Texas.

Rita Is Moving Toward The West Near 13 Mph And This Motion Is
Expected To Continue During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 165 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Rita
Is An Extremely Dangerous Category Five Hurricane On The
Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Intensity Are Likely
During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles From The
Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 175
Miles.

Pressure Has Been Falling Rapidly During The Day And The Latest
Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force
Reconnaissance Plane Was 898 Mb...26.55 Inches. This Makes Rita The
Third Most Intense Hurricane In Terms Of Pressure In The Atlantic
Basin.

Tides Are Currently Running Near Normal Along The Mississippi And
Louisiana Coasts In The Areas Affected By Katrina. Tides In Those
Areas Will Increase Up To 3 To 4 Feet Over The Next 24 Hours With
Large Waves On Top And Residents There Could Experience Flooding.

Repeating The 7 Pm Cdt Position...24.5 N... 86.8 W. Movement
Toward...west Near 13 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...165 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...898 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center
At 10 Pm Cdt.

Forecaster Stewart/landsea


$$

[rockin500]

I still don't see why they bother to name them. At that, the names are usually homofied. Ernesto? Eesh. Poor kid(s) with that name.

because its a lot easier than just saying "the new orleans hurricane" or the florida keys hurricane (part nine thousand). or just calling them hurricane 1-whatever.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Not to toot my own horn, but I did say this earlier about where the system could come in at:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 220249
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA

...CATEGORY FIVE RITA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA... FROM EAST OF CAMERON TO GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA... AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE RITA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES...
915 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 670 MILES...
1080 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES.
THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. AFTER RITA MOVES
INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N... 87.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...175 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 897 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[CincyRedsFan30]

000
Wtnt43 Knhc 220311
Tcdat3
Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 18
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Pm Edt Wed Sep 21 2005

Rita Has Continued To Strengthen Since The Last Advisory. A
Dropsonde In The Eye Of Rita Around 21/2309z Recorded A Pressure Of
899 Mb With A Surface Wind Of 32 Kt. Anything Below 10 Kt Is
Usually Considered A Valid Pressure. However...the General Thumb
Rule Is To Decrease The Pressure 1 Mb For Every 10 Kt Above That
Wind Speed. In This Case... Rita's Central Pressure Is Estimated To
Be 897 Mb...making It The Third Most Intense Hurricane In Terms Of
Pressure For The Atlantic Basin. The Last Recon Pass Only Indicated
2 Reports Of 700 Mb Flight-level Winds Of 157 Kt In The Northeast
Quadrant. However... Odt Values Over The Past 2 Hours Have Averaged
Between T7.3/149 Kt And T7.4/152 Kt... So The Initial Intensity Has
Been Increased To 150 Kt. The Pressure-wind Relationship For An 897
Mb Pressure Is 160 Kt.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 280/08. Rita Has Actually Made A
Large Wobble And Slowed To A 285/06 Kt Motion The Past 6 Hours.
However...such Motion Changes...which Are Not Unusual For
Explosively Deepening Tropical Cyclones As The Inner Core Wind
Field And Convective Pattern Reorganizes...are Considered Temporary
And Rita Is Expected To Shortly Resume A More Westward MotionThe
18z Nhc Model Guidance Is A Little More Convergent Than Previous
Model Runs... With The Gfs And Gfdl Models Doing Their Usual
Afternoon Eastward Shift. Those Models Now Bring Rita Across The
Houston-galveston Area In About 72 Hours. However...the Other
Models Seem To Have Stabilized Their Forecast Tracks Farther West
With The Consensus Having Shifted A Little More To The Right. The
Official Forecast Track Was Also Shifted To The Right...but Not As
Far As The Gfs/gfdl Models...since It Now Appears That The Global
Models Have A Reasonable Handle On Weakening The Mid-level Ridge
Across Texas And The Gulf Coast Based 22/00z Upper-air Data
Indicating 40 Meter Height Falls Across This Region During The Past
24 Hours.

The Intensity Forecast Is Somewhat Problematic. The Upper-level
Outflow Pattern Is Perfect With A Poleward Outflow Channel
Converging Into An Upper-low Northeast Of The Lesser Antilles... An
Equatorward Outflow Channel Converging Into An Upper-low Over The
Bay Of Campeche...and A Third Weak Outflow Channel Developing To
The Northwest. This Extremely Favorable Pattern...combined With
30-31c Ssts...has Allowed Rita's Explosive Deepening To Occur. The
Eye Will Be Passing Over The Warm Gulf Loop Current During The Next
12 Hours...so Some Additional Strengthening Is Possible... If An
Eyewall Replacement Cycle Does Not Inhibit The Intensification
Process. By 36-48 Hours...the Global Models Are In Good Agreement
That The Current Three Outflow Channel Pattern Will Be Replaced By
Mainly A Large Poleward Outflow Pattern. This Should Induce Some
Steady Weakening...but That Type Of Outflow Pattern...coupled With
Expected Low Vertical Shear Conditions...is Still Sufficient To
Support A Category 4 Hurricane Until Landfall Occurs. Of Course...
Internal Dynamics Also Play A Role In What The Intensity Of A
Hurricane Will Be... And We Have No Skill In Forecasting Eyewall
Replacement Cycles Beyond About 6-12 Hours...at Best. The Intensity
Forecast Is Similar To The Trend Of The Ships Model...only Slightly
Higher After 24 Hours Due To Lower Vertical Shear Indicated By The
Nogaps...canadian...ukmet...and Ecmwf Models.

Forecaster Stewart

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 22/0300z 24.6n 87.2w 150 Kt
12hr Vt 22/1200z 24.9n 88.7w 155 Kt
24hr Vt 23/0000z 25.5n 90.5w 150 Kt
36hr Vt 23/1200z 26.3n 92.4w 145 Kt
48hr Vt 24/0000z 27.5n 94.2w 135 Kt
72hr Vt 25/0000z 31.0n 96.4w 65 Kt...inland
96hr Vt 26/0000z 33.5n 96.5w 30 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 27/0000z 35.0n 96.5w 25 Kt...dissiapting Inland

$$

[CincyRedsFan30]

"18z Nhc Model Guidance Is A Little More Convergent Than Previous
Model Runs... With The Gfs And Gfdl Models Doing Their Usual
Afternoon Eastward Shift. Those Models Now Bring Rita Across The
Houston-galveston Area In About 72 Hours. However...the Other
Models Seem To Have Stabilized Their Forecast Tracks Farther West
With The Consensus Having Shifted A Little More To The Right. The
Official Forecast Track Was Also Shifted To The Right...but Not As
Far As The Gfs/gfdl Models...since It Now Appears That The Global
Models Have A Reasonable Handle On Weakening The Mid-level Ridge
Across Texas And The Gulf Coast Based 22/00z Upper-air Data
Indicating 40 Meter Height Falls Across This Region During The Past
24 Hours."

"I might be imagining, but I seem to see a very SLIGHT turn to the Northwest happening right now. Sometimes jogs in one direction or another occur before the final turn, which is what this could be. I think the center will end up coming ashore a little further North/Northeast than most of the models are indicating. One model shows it actually coming shore EAST of Galveston, and I don't buy that outlier, but I do think it will come onshore a little bit closer to Galveston(and not quite as close to Corpus Christi) than some of the projections are indicating it will. It still might be a little closer to Corpus Christi or in between Corpus Christi and Galveston, but I do think it will be a bit further North. Just my guess, but that's how I see it as of right now."