If Burnett is seeking the most dollars in his next deal, he’ll probably be a Ranger or a Blue Jay. If he wants to win and is willing to sign a budget-friendly contract with dollars back-loaded at the end, then he could come to St. Louis.
Ultimately, we figure a more desperate franchise will outbid the Cards, by a lot, for a guy with a 49-50 career record. This is an unusually poor free-agent market for pitchers, so, by default, Burnett will command all-star dollars.
(Remember when Burnett’s old teammate Carl Pavano hit the market after last season? It was the same thing. Pavano was a hot commodity by default. He got $39.5 million over four years from the Yankees, about double his value. We saw how that worked out for Joe Torre.)
The Cards will want to keep Carpenter and Mark Mulder for the long term, and both will command eight-digit salaries on their next contracts, health permitting. So Jocketty can’t get carried away in the current marketplace.