How Much Will Ludwick Regress?

[love_that_reefer]

Last year was the break out year for Ryan Ludwick after playing for his fifth organization and finally getting a starting job out of spring training. Ludwick hit 37 HRs and drove in 113 while batting .299/.375/.591. It was a truly amazing season for him and helped get the Cards to 86 wins last year. This spring is suggesting a major regression for Ludwick. Ludwick with essentially no competition for the RF job is batting an anemic .135/.273/.189. Just look at that slugging percentage!! In 37 ABs, Ryan only has two extra base hits and five RBI. He looks lost in the batter's box. This is not the Ryan Ludwick we saw last year. Will Ludwick duplicate his '08 season? Probably not but just how far will Ludwick fall?

[CrazyEights]

Ludwick is scaring me this Spring, but then I remember that you can't put much stock in ST numbers. Luckily the Cards do have a surplus of outfielders in case he does have a down year. I can see Duncan having a good year with the bat if he can find a spot to play.

[love_that_reefer]

LF seems to be Duncan's to lose. With Schumaker playing second, Mather at third and Rasmus battling injuries, Duncan seems to have LF locked down at this point.

[CrazyEights]

Rasmus battling injuries? This year? Did I miss something?

If your talking about last year, then you are right. I haven't heard anything about him being hurt this year though. He's played as much as anyone else this season. He's in better shape than he's ever been. Over the winter he strengthened his legs and gained 10 pounds of muscle. I don't know if he will make the team this year, but he has a good shot. It wouldn't do him any good to make the team, and just sit on the bench though. If he does make the team, then he needs to play.

[love_that_reefer]

Rasmus had a sore hamstring for a couple of days and last year he had his knee problems. I don't want Rasmus to make the team and sit either. He would be better off in AAA and being called up later. Rasmus isn't exactly pounding the baseball this spring which makes me think he won't be on the Opening Day roster.

[love_that_reefer]

Ludwick hit his first homerun of the spring yesterday.

[missionhockey21]

His spring training has made me a bit leery of him in fantasy leagues, but if he was on my team I really wouldn't take his poor spring as too much of an indicator. I think at worst, it means he might start off slow and have to make some adjustments to find his groove again. His August and September splits were really solid last year. If he started to slow down in those months, this poor spring would be heightened on the importance scale. Of course his late season stats weren't quite as dynamic as his red hot start in the season, but he posted a .994 OPS in July, 1.036 OPS in August, and a .941 OPS in September.

I don't think we'll see 37 homers again this season, but I think he is a solid bet for 30+ still with a good average and a plus OBP. This season though is a make it or break it though for him, if he follows it up with another +.900 OPS season he'll put himself among the elite class of NL outfielders and not just a flash in the pan.

[love_that_reefer]

Ludwick has 4 HRs so far and is having a ball.

[CrazyEights]

I don't see any regression so far.

[love_that_reefer]

Nope, not one bit! Its about time LaRussa hit Ludwick directly behind Pujols.

[bcshorts]

For whatever it's worth, I'm still on the Ludwick bandwagon (way before his two homers today). I don't know that he's going to hit 37 this year, but I see a .280/30/90 season coming from him, potentially a little higher.

[CrazyEights]

According to Ludwick, he expects himself to do at least .300, 25 HRs, and 100 RBI's