Q: What are the chances the M's wind up with Morrow?
A: Gotta figure Morrow, Scherzer or Hochevar. I can't believe that Miller, Lincoln, OR Lincecum would slip to five.
It's like figuring on ARod and Pujols being gone at the #5 in your roto draft…
Morrow is my guess for the one pitcher most likely to be a Mariner. Just a guess. (Say, Morrow 30% compared to Hochevar's 25%, compared to Scherzer's 20%, Lincoln's 10%, Lincecum's 5%, Miller's 5%, others' 5%, maybe. Of course Bob Fontaine could tell ya, but I'm guessing he'd rather not.)
.
Q: Morrow is the guy with the true, upper-90's fastball?
A: Yes. All the other guys except Lincecum, you'll hear they "touch" 96-99, then hear excuses that they are consistently at 91-95 with command and "reach back when they need it." (In the majors, when don't you need it?! Siggghhhhhh…)
Not Brandon Morrow. 97 is a normal fastball for him. 97 is normal for Morrow the way 92 is normal for Gil Meche. Morrow will throw the majority of his fastballs from 96 to 99; he'll hit 99 not once, but many times in a game. He has true Randy Johnson velocity.
“I never really struggled with control until I started throwing a lot harder,” Morrow said.
A velocity spike was inevitable for the long, skinny righthander. He has put on weight since he arrived at Cal from Rancho Cotate High in Rohnert Park, Calif., but still has room to fill out his 6-foot-3, 190-pound frame. That spike occurred just before the start of his 2005 sophomore season. Up until that point, Morrow’s fastball consistently sat in the high 80s and low 90s, sporadically touching 94. Then he hit 96 as the season began. He hit 97 during the second weekend of the year. He hit 99 by the third weekend against Long Beach State, and from then on his velocity sat in the 96-98 range and touched 99 fairly often.
“He’s starting to physically mature, getting stronger,” Cal pitching coach Dan Hubbs said. “We thought he’d throw harder. Did we think he’d throw 99? I don’t think anyone ever thinks someone’s going to throw 99.”
Or,
"Before this year, I would have said he would be a closer," Hubbs said. "But now he is holding his velocity. If a team wanted to bring him up to the majors in a hurry, I still think it would be as a closer. He could pitch in the big leagues right now on certain days because he could overpower people. He would be one of the hardest throwing pitchers in the majors right now."
.
Q: Wow. A better arm than Miller or Scherzer or Lincoln? He must have an 0.48 ERA.
A: That's the funny thing - Morrow's results are good but not great. Like he has 99 K's in 96 innings, considerably fewer than Scherzer or Lincecum get at their best. He has a 1+ ERA but, weirdly, 12 homers allowed — almost "gopheritis" territory, and this throwing 97 mph against low-minors players at best.
.
Q: How can college hitters deal with 96-99 heat? (Less than) half of the Pac-12 players are low-minors players, and half are no prospects at all.
A: Three things:
1. Let it sink deep into your ears …. even a summer-league ballplayer can hit 97 if he can sit there and time it several pitches in a row. I have friends who can hit 90-95 in the cage.
Low-minors hitters have no problem hitting 96 mph fastballs. Neither do college players. Not if they are sitting dead-red and have the location right. They'll square you up, pard. From Wisconsin on up.
2. The aluminum bats are a huge factor. College players almost all have slow bats, the drag the pinger across the strike zone in maddeningly lazy fashion, will take a 96 mph inside pitch off the wall in left. For example, check out this quote from his pitching coach:
“I think a big part of it was him getting the ball consistently over the strike zone, and the Cape played a part in that,” Hubbs said. “I think at times he fell into the trap of pitching away from contact with aluminum, but on the Cape there’s no fear of that. It doesn’t matter how good the hitters are–if you’re throwing 99 mph, let’s go get ‘em. He took that mentality to aluminum.”
3. But especially, Morrow's fastball is straight and he shows it very, very early.
.
Q: Why do you say he shows the ball early?
A: calleaguers.com has two outstanding videos of Morrow. Check out the guys muttering "97 mph" on the tape in the background on each pitch…
February calleaguers.com Morrow video
March calleaguers.com Morrow video
As you can see, Brandon Morrow shows his fastball as early as it is possible to show it. That is a 0.00 on the deception scale. You remember the old Iron Mike pitching machines, that threw the ball with a mechanical sling arm? I've never seen a pitcher look more like an Iron Mike than this amigo.
There's nothing that can ever be done to make Morrow's release more deceptive; he'll always show the ball real early. But some MLB stars, notably Johnson, do the same thing.
=================
By all accounts, the heater is also straight as a string. No movement whatsoever.
After writing that, we found this quote:
“Early in the year, his stuff was off the charts, but deception is an issue because he lacks it,” one opposing pitching coach said. “He’s a closer for me (in pro ball), but does he have the moxie to close?”
.
Q: You like his motion that much, huh?
A: LOVE it.
Watch the kid's cap against the background in the March video. That is a surgeon-steady head and eyes. Whew. Major leaguers should have still eyes like that.
Also the kid comes down the centerline with EXCEPTIONAL grace and ease. In fact, watch the one pitch where he backs up a base (LOL), watch how light on his feet he is. He practically minces — in an athletic sense that is a great thing.
Morrow has fabulous body control and balance. That combined with the still head and consistent mechanics, means that his command inside the strike zone is going to get better and better.
The combo of the grace and electric arm and long body create just about the ideal no-injury zone.
===========
Morrow jerks the head a bit in February; that's totally gone in the March video. He bangs his arm against his body a bit; he chicken-wings a little bit, which can be tough on the shoulder.
But with those minor health concerns, Morrow has a delivery that could bring tears to your eyes. Go back to the Andrew Miller POTD, or to calleaguers.com for Ian Kennedy's video. They look like Little Leaguers compared to Morrow.
Morrow was *lousy* just one year ago, in 2005. Now he's picturesque. In 2007, what will he be?
An MLB scout agreed with me, if you can imagine such a thing, as to his motion:
“The thing about Brandon, if you were watching him on the side you’d think he was throwing 86, then on the gun it’s 98. That’s a good compliment that he can be that fluid and easy–the ball comes out of his hand that well.”
Rather than "fluid and easy," an aikido sensei would talk about relaxed but strong acceleration. Which means complete command of one's movements, and explosive power without strain.
.
Q: So exactly where does that leave him? Randy Johnson velocity … but horrible deception. What is the result of that?
A: The result is that Morrow will need one of two things:
1) Location with the FB … in on the hands, right at the knees (like the Unit) or on the black outside … -OR-
2) A strikeout breaking pitch.
Notice the difference between the word "and", compared to the word "or," kiddies. Scouts will use the word "AND." The right word to use is "OR."
In the majors, Morrow will not need BOTH location AND a plus breaking pitch (unless he needs to be the greatest pitcher who ever lived). Either one will do him just fine.
The young Curt Schilling just had a 97 fastball and command of it. That was plenty. The other pitches become "show" pitches.
Randy Johnson always had an arrow-true fastball and he showed it very early, and well away from his body. He had a strikeout breaking pitch, and a predictable 97 fastball, and he was the 2nd-best LHP in the history of baseball (Lefty Grove).
But remember what happened to Randy early on, when hitters sat on the fastball?
In the majors, they use wood bats, and if a 98 fastball is on the hands it doesn't matter if you're ready for it or not. A 98 heater will saw you off, if it's anywhere inside the sweet spot of the bat– which is only about 4-6 inches of the barrel. An inside 98 fastball is impossible to hit, unless you cheat and lean back, or tuck your elbows way in, or whatever. (And that leaves every part of the zone vulnerable *except* the jam pitch.)
Also if you keep the 97 heater at the knees, it doesn't matter how straight it is.
(After we wrote that, we found this quote, so don't believe me, believe the "experts", LOL
As for the common criticism that Morrow’s high three-quarters arm slot lacks deception and his fastball lacks movement, Hubbs dismisses it.
“He gets a lot of swing and misses, even with aluminum,” Hubbs said. “If it’s people thinking he needs the ball to move anywhere–if he’s down in the zone and it’s 99, it doesn’t really matter.
.
Q: Do you expect Morrow to be able to gain that pinpoint location, or a second K pitch?
A: His chances are good of doing at least one of them, and he may do both.
His mechanics are smooth as Duke Ellington, and he's already starting to show a nice breaking pitch. Looks like he indeed will develop nicely, if he stays healthy.
.
Q: Does he need a third pitch?
A: Did Randy Johnson?
Get two good ones going. (Of course, every scout alive will disagree with me, no matter how many Randy Johnsons and 1997 Kerry Woods and Barry Zitos they watch.)
But Morrow claims to have four:
Before this season, Morrow said he was essentially a fastball-splitter pitcher. The split was a devastating pitch when it was on, but hitters knew it was not going to be a strike so they could sit on his fastball. So in the offseason he focused on developing his 84 mph changeup and his hard breaking ball (“I don’t know what people are calling it, I just throw it hard,” Morrow said). He learned to throw both offspeed pitches for strikes and entered the season as a confident pitcher with four average or better pitches.
And:
Hubbs said Morrow is always asking what the coaches know about opposing hitters.
“I tell him, ‘What we hear on these guys doesn’t necessarily apply to you. There’s no scouting report for how hitters respond to your stuff,’ ” Hubbs said. “Nobody throws like him.”
.
Q: Any info as to his curve and change?
A: Kevin Goldstein at BP interviewed him … a few sentences from that:
Morrow felt a change was in order, not just for the rest of his season, but for the rest of his career. "I was thinking to myself that I needed a better breaking ball to succeed at the next level," said Morrow. "So I started gripping a curve and working on it with [pitching coach Dan] Hubbs." The curveball came very quickly to Morrow, and it's one of the reasons, beyond his performance, that has elevated Morrow's stock. "It's 1-to-7 without a lot of tilt–more of a hard downer," as Morrow describes it. "I'm throwing it for strikes and people are missing it."
Morrow also continues to work on his changeup, a process that is difficult for most pitchers. "It's definitely the hardest pitch to learn," said Morrow. "I've always gotten good movement on it, and it comes in at about 86-88 mph. I'm working on getting [the velocity] down further and getting more hitters ahead of it. But I like how it runs and dips."
Q: He's a fast learner, too? WHEW.
A: He was nowhere in 2005 — 9.36 ERA in college. He was growing into his arm strength. Seriously, that's what they'll all tell you, that he had a sudden jump in velocity and his shoulder couldn't handle it for a while.
He adjusted amazingly fast.
Notice that in the March 06 vid, he is slowed-down and smoothed-out, compared to Feb 06. The kid is making visible progress. He could easily hit the minors, and continue to progress, start-to-start. In a year you could have a kid who threw 97 mph into a teacup, like the younger Curt Schilling.
.
Q: He's frail, though, right.
A: Lots of stuff … type I diabetes, pitches with a pump hooked to his skin, keeps an asthma inhaler on the bench, had growing pains and was sure it was a labrum, etc.
No offense amigo — there are nice guys, and there are tough players. I see Morrow as a nice guy, a sensitive type. He'd make a better friend than a Game 7 starter…
.
Q: OK, so why do you say he's your least fave choice for the M's?
A: Objectively speaking, Brandon Morrow is a #1 overall in this, or in many drafts.
From a judgment standpoint, I just see "tease" written all over the guy.
I see a pitcher who will get confused and discouraged, a guy who beats up on weak opposition but who will back down from challenges, a guy who if he loses even a tick off his fastball is right where Gil Meche is. In fact Morrow reminds me of the young Gil Meche, in lots of ways.
Now I could easily be wrong. It so happens the "baloney alarm" is going off for D-O-V, for no particular reason. But if you don't buy Dr. D's (or your own) intuition, by all means go with the toolbox. Morrow's arm and mechanics are a 70 if not a 75 or even an 80 on the 20-80 scale.
We'll see what Fontaine thinks, maybe …
Enjoy,
Dr D
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
Houston Astros
LA Angels
Oakland Athleticss
Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
Register To Reply
Originally Posted by Porter99
