Is PetCo really a pitcher's park?

[HollywoodLeo]

Petco was shown not to be a pitchers park this season when opposing teams came in and had ZERO problem hitting the ball out.

Did you ever come up with those stats on opposing team's HRs in PetCo as opposed to opposing team's HRs in other parks? Or are you just basing this remark on Nevin's failure to hit the long ball for the Rangers?

For the record, I do agree with you to some extent that the Padres are lacking in the power department...it's rather obvious. But I wouldn't go as far as to say that PetCo has proven to not be a pitcher's park either.

[padrefanforever]

No.......I wasn't able to find them, however those exact stats were given on the radio one day........not long after we started discussing it in here........it was completely lopsided.........opposing teams mash in Petco.......Padres just have NO power, and haven't for years......this is clear to all now........I should have written it down.....but still would have no link......sorry.......

[love_that_reefer]

When your team leader has only 18 homers, you need some power in that lineup.

[padrefanforever]

Yah think........lol........

[love_that_reefer]

I know, our team leader has 20

[HollywoodLeo]

No.......I wasn't able to find them, however those exact stats were given on the radio one day........not long after we started discussing it in here........it was completely lopsided.........opposing teams mash in Petco.......Padres just have NO power, and haven't for years......this is clear to all now........I should have written it down.....but still would have no link......sorry.......

Did they say the opposing team HRs in PetCo as opposed to the opposing team HRs in other parks, or did they say the opposing team's HRs in PetCo as compared to Padre HRs in PetCo? (cuz that's what everyone always likes to focus on)

I've never denied the fact that the Padres need more power...I even stated that in my last post. I'm merely debating the statement that "PetCo has proven to not be a pitcher's park" despite the fact that any sportscaster you ask will state that PetCo is probably the biggest pitcher's park in the majors, or at least one of the biggest.

When your team leader has only 18 homers, you need some power in that lineup.

Again, I never said the Padres don't need more power.

I posted a thread in another Padres forum asking for the same stat numbers I've asked for when we previously debated this. The one post I saw before the page decided to stop loading didn't fully answer my question, but he did give some information that helps prove my side of the debate.

Since Petco Park opened, 162 games on the road the Padres have given up 191 Home Runs. In 156 games at Petco the Padres have given up 141 home runs. That is similar to the difference the Padres have: 158 Road and 110 at Petco. So saying Oppenents have no trouble is wrong.

Padres Opponents have hit 76.66% less home runs at PetCo.
Padres have hit 72.23% less home runs at PetCo.

[HollywoodLeo]

ah, here we go. Numbers for last season, NL parks.

someone linked a thread where she had the same thought process and she looked up the stats herself (which I would've done, if not for my restrictions. I could do it, but I choose to limit how many pages I wait for to open, lol)

This post was made on 11/13/2004 in reference to the 2004 season

Ok, Padre Homer got me to thinking so I did a little stat work and ranked all NL stadiums by percent of HR's/AB for the visiting team. I used only visiting team numbers so that the "it's in their heads" argument that gets blamed on our Padres could be removed from the equation. To make sure to keep the comparison fair, I used the visiting teams data for all of the other stadiums also. Well gang, Petco didn't come in last place but out of 16 NL stadiums we were 13th in the fewest HR's per AB's.

Petco's percentage for the season was .0267. This was based on 2803 visitor AB's and 75 HR's. Now carrying this idea a bit further (and a hell of a lot more work) I broke out the 1st 40 games from the rest of the season. I wanted to see what influence the April, May, June and 1st week of July weather/marine layer had. We all noticed that post All-Star break showed improvement. Some attributed this to the players learning to deal with the new park and making adjustments. Some cited change in weather. Since our opponents did not have the label of head cases.........if the stats for 1st half differed from 2nd half it should be attributable to conditions other than mental. First 40 games(April, May, June 1st week July) our visitors had 1367 AB's we allowed them 28 HR's for a percentage of .0204. Next 42 games ( 2-4 week July Aug, Sept) our visitors had 1436 AB's and we allowed them 47 HR's for a percentage of .0327. If I had ranked Petco on 1st half percentage of HR's/AB (remember this is our opponents not our guys hitting) we would have been last on the list of Stadiums. If I had ranked Petco only on the 2nd half it would have been between 7th and 8th (between Minute Maid and Olympic stadium). Season totals as I mentioned rank Petco #13th



Since the Park factor data is calculated by PF=(home RS + homeRA)/(home G))/ (road RS+road RA)/(roadG)) There has been the argument that our players (RS Home vs RS Away) mental approach contributed to a lower Park Factor. I would argue that using only visitor stats eliminates this being attributed to the Padre hitters. It appears clear to me that Petco is one of the most difficult parks to go long in especially early in the season. It will be interesting to watch 05 and see if this same data holds true. Low percentage of HR's early in the season and improvement from mid July on. Either way, the early half of Petco's season sure affected the season total.



Our power hitters especially Nevin, Klesko, & Giles have been raked across the coals for voicing their concerns about Petco playing tough and suppressing long ball numbers and they were/are absolutely correct. Even with the improvement as the season progressed, season totals were lower than in all but 3 other NL stadiums. So gang, can we remove the crybaby, head case, it's all in their heads label off of our guys? That is unless you think that through some big conspiracy our guys "got" to the opposition and convinced them to lay off the long balls at Petco just so they could be proven correct in their concerns about the way Petco would play.





Stadium
AB's
HR's
Percent

#1Great America
2879
128
0.0444


#2Citizens
2887
115
0.0398


#4BOB
2847
109
0.0382


#4Coors
2947
110
0.0373


#5Wrigley
2855
96
0.0336


#6Dodger
2779
92
0.0331


#7Minute Maid
2782
91
0.0327


#8Olympic
2784
86
0.0308


#9Pro Player
2761
83
0.0301


#10Turner
2843
84
0.0295


#11Miller
2868
83
0.0289


#12Busch
2783
77
0.0276


#13Petco
2803
75
0.0267


#14SBC
2884
77
0.0266


#15Shea
2863
67
0.0234


#16PNC
2750
57
0.0207

The same poster is currently working on the stats for this year. I can get back with it when she posts it.

Feel free to draw your own conclusions.

And, again, I do agree that the Padres are really lacking in the power department...but that doesn't mean that PetCo isn't helping to supress the power.

[padrefanforever]

I'll be very interested in this years HR totals..........I believe them to be higher than last year.......... we played better ball last year, and I don't think we gave up as many as this year.........I could be wrong, but that's just a feeling I get !

[love_that_reefer]

I never said that you said that Hollywood.

[HollywoodLeo]

I'll be very interested in this years HR totals..........I believe them to be higher than last year.......... we played better ball last year, and I don't think we gave up as many as this year.........I could be wrong, but that's just a feeling I get !

Well, looking at AztecBill's post, and knowing that we gave up 75 HRs in PetCo last season, that tells me the opposition has hit 66 HRs with 5 home games remaining.

They have to give up 9 HRs in those 5 games to match last season

[padrefanforever]

Originally Posted by AztecBill
Since Petco Park opened, 162 games on the road the Padres have given up 191 Home Runs. In 156 games at Petco the Padres have given up 141 home runs. That is similar to the difference the Padres have: 158 Road and 110 at Petco. So saying Oppenents have no trouble is wrong.

Padres Opponents have hit 76.66% less home runs at PetCo.
Padres have hit 72.23% less home runs at PetCo.


I'm not interested in %'s.........I want the number of HR's by opponents in Petco to compare with HR's the Padres have hit there......... if that # is less, we're having more trouble than opponents.......and since our HR leader doesn't even have 20.......I'm going to say we're having MAJOR issues with power !

FYI........I never said it was a bandbox...........just said that true power hitters have had no problem hitting it out........and Dave Roberts hasn't either and he's no power threat.

[HollywoodLeo]

I'm not interested in %'s.........I want the number of HR's by opponents in Petco to compare with HR's the Padres have hit there......... if that # is less, we're having more trouble than opponents.......and since our HR leader doesn't even have 20.......I'm going to say we're having MAJOR issues with power !

You're trying to have a completely different debate with me here. I have already stated that the Padres are indeed lacking in the power department. That's rather obvious, they don't exactly hit them out on the road all that much either. But you're making two false, IMO, claims. 1. The opposition has "zero" problem hitting it out of PetCo (as compared to elsewhere) and 2. That PetCo has "proven" to not be a pitcher's park because of so.

here you're telling me that by showing how many HRs the opposition has hit in PetCo as compared to how many the Padres have hit proves your point. That is false, all that tells me is that the Padres are lacking in the power department, as they can't hit as many HRs as others in the same park. (BTW, Bill does give those numbers, and the Padres, predictably, have less than the opposition)

I don't want to look at opposition HRs as compared to Padres home runs, as i'm not debating your claim that the Padres are really lacking in power. I'm debating your claims that PetCo isn't a pitchers park and that the opposition has zero problem hitting it out. Just because some scrub who's not normally a HR hitter hits it out of PetCo once or twice (Ishii, Roberts, etc) doesn't mean it's not a pitcher's park. It simply means the aformentioned "scrub" got a good swing on a pitch and hit a HR.

The numbers I want to look at are opposition's HRs in PetCo as compared to Opposition's HRs in other parks. Why? Because this gives me a rough comparison of a large variety of players coming into the same park hitting X amount of HRs. It's not the same group of players for all 81 games, so you can't blame it on lack of power/talent. So all that leaves you is a rough estimate on how well the park itself factors into the long ball.

As shown by the statistics in my 2nd post, PetCo was 13 out of 16 last season for the NL. I don't know how well it was this season, however. Nor do I know how it compared to ALL major league parks. Both of which i'd like to know. (of course, for AL parks you'd have to take into consideration the DH)

What Bill's stats show us is that the Padres gave up more HRs on the road than they did at home, by a considerable margin. They also hit more HRs on the road than they did at home, by a similar margin than that they gave up. Coincidence? Doesn't this tell us that the park does indeed supress home runs? Even if the Padres lack of talent in the power department does make it even that much worse than it otherwise would be?

[padrefanforever]

I believe you're more of less echoing my words months ago when I first asked for those #'s........ I wanted opposing teams totals, for the same reasons your now giving.........but I also wanted to know how many we hit there during the great debate of whether or not we should get rid of guys like Nevin etc..... I think you're mixing up two different conversations in this forum.......and that would be easy to do............I don't care about day vs. night......... DH vs. pitcher....... I want raw #'s........if I could find them myself.......I would, but I failed to do this, and put it out there for someone that is more savy with regards to stats than I........

I know I don't know the totals........THAT'S WHY I HAVE BEEN ASKING FOR THEM....... I also know that we've been completely out HR'd here and on the road........I simply wanted totals to know just how bad we are at the power positions.........is that more clear ?

We have no 20 HR guys........not one........ if we blame the ballpark on that......we're just putting blinders on...........fact is if we had a true power hitter he'd probably have splits that were damn near equal no matter where he played and that would mean 20 road 20 home......or damn close to it.........for instance our "POWER HITTER" Klesko has more HR's this year at home vs. away............ lending weight to my theory that it's not the ballpark it's the talent.......a true power threat here for 81 games might hit 40+HRs on the year and have more at home than away......... If it were not for Greene owning Coors field, he'd have the same # of HR's at home vs. away.......once again lending weight to my theory..........and yes it's just an opinion......I DON'T THINK PETCO IS JUST A PITCHERS PARK...... I think it plays very fair.....if you hit it.......it goes out.......if you don't.......no cheap HR's here....that's not a pitchers park.....That's a baseball park condusive to baseball......not hitters nor pitchers.......the assumption that it must be a hitters park if it's not a pitchers park is where YOU went wrong with regards to what I was saying........ I never said it was a hitters park ) nor did I elude to that........Petco is also only two years old.......for all we know it could end up a hitters park once everyone figures it out.....lol.......sheesh.......

GO PADRES !!!!!!

[HollywoodLeo]

I believe you're more of less echoing my words months ago when I first asked for those #'s........ I wanted opposing teams totals, for the same reasons your now giving.........but I also wanted to know how many we hit there during the great debate of whether or not we should get rid of guys like Nevin etc..... I think you're mixing up two different conversations in this forum.......and that would be easy to do............I don't care about day vs. night......... DH vs. pitcher....... I want raw #'s........if I could find them myself.......I would, but I failed to do this, and put it out there for someone that is more savy with regards to stats than I........

I know I don't know the totals........THAT'S WHY I HAVE BEEN ASKING FOR THEM....... I also know that we've been completely out HR'd here and on the road........I simply wanted totals to know just how bad we are at the power positions.........is that more clear ?

We have no 20 HR guys........not one........ if we blame the ballpark on that......we're just putting blinders on...........fact is if we had a true power hitter he'd probably have splits that were damn near equal no matter where he played and that would mean 20 road 20 home......or damn close to it.........for instance our "POWER HITTER" Klesko has more HR's this year at home vs. away............ lending weight to my theory that it's not the ballpark it's the talent.......a true power threat here for 81 games might hit 40+HRs on the year and have more at home than away......... If it were not for Greene owning Coors field, he'd have the same # of HR's at home vs. away.......once again lending weight to my theory..........and yes it's just an opinion......I DON'T THINK PETCO IS JUST A PITCHERS PARK...... I think it plays very fair.....if you hit it.......it goes out.......if you don't.......no cheap HR's here....that's not a pitchers park.....That's a baseball park condusive to baseball......not hitters nor pitchers.......the assumption that it must be a hitters park if it's not a pitchers park is where YOU went wrong with regards to what I was saying........ I never said it was a hitters park ) nor did I elude to that........Petco is also only two years old.......for all we know it could end up a hitters park once everyone figures it out.....lol.......sheesh.......

GO PADRES !!!!!!

You've got me wrong when you say that I think you're calling it a hitter's park. I realize what you're saying, and i'm trying to argue that it is a pitcher's park...while still admitting I don't have the numbers to fully back up my opinion. Right now i'm just stating what numbers I want and why I feel they'd back me up if they were what I think them to be.

Furthermore you keep spending half your responses trying to convince me that the Padres are in dire need of talent with power, no matter how many times I respond that I agree with you in that regard.

For the record, i'm no longer asking you to find the numbers, I don't expect you to spend all day looking them up if you're not too inclined to do so. I just asked for them back then.

What numbers I do have tend to back me up, though. Furthermore, just because I'm trying to state an opinion, one shared by many sportscasters, that PetCo is a pitcher's park, and trying to use stats to back my opinion up, doesn't mean i'm making excuses for Klesko's 18 home runs. I'm simply trying to debate that PetCo, despite your opinion, is indeed a pitcher's park.

I do agree that "true" power talent should be able to hit it out of anywhere...but that doesn't mean the dynamics of the park doesn't play a factor in it. There's a reason so many balls fly out of Coors, and it's not because Colorado is chock full of power hitters every year.

The main clutch in people's minds whenever someone tries to point out PetCo's supression of HRs is "Why are you making excuses for our hitters?!" I'm not making excuses, i'm simply arguing a point.

Numbers don't lie. You point out the HR differential between home and away of two players, one of which you dismiss HRs in Coors because it's OK to give credit to that stadium in how it helps or doesn't help HRs) Wheras I relay (via AztecBill and others) number differentials for 1. The entire team and 2. The entire National League.

Numbers can be skewed when focusing on an individual. Nobody ever says it's impossible to hit it out of PetCo, (well, maybe Phil Nevin does) People will hit HRs at PetCo, and certain individuals may even hit more there than elsewhere. Perhaps the individual simply found the sweet pitch in PetCo more often than elsewhere. But when you look at a larger sample size, say the entire team, the numbers become more valid. And the entire Padres team has given up more home runs on the road than they have at PetCo, by a considerable margin. The entire Padres team has hit more home runs on the road than they have at PetCo, again by a considerable margin. Is this just some crazy coincidence, or is it because PetCo is a pitcher's park that supresses the long ball?

Furthermore, how do you explain Ismael Valdez's crazy splits last season? How do you explain Pedro Astacio suddenly becoming good in San Diego? (Ok, Darren Balsley has a say in that)

I can't really back up the pitcher's side of it, as i'm using individual performances there. I guess to further call it a "pitcher's park" I can also find some pitching stats related to the ball park. I'll look into this when I get a chance and start a new thread.

I may just make a new thread now and move some of these posts over, if that's cool with you. I am kinda hijacking your thread, as this debate really isn't in direct reference to what we should do for next season.

As far as your last statement goes, you may be right...of course it could end up becoming a hitters park mereley due to the fact that there's talk of moving the fences in.

[padrefanforever]

lol....that's cool........move it over it you'd like........that's fine........here are the HR splits for our "power" guys......

who..........home.............away......... ( minus coors factor )
Klesko.........10..................8........... ( 1 in coors ) lopsided in Petco's favor
Giles............6...................9........... ( 3 in coors ) dead even split
Greene.........6...................9.......... ( 3 in coors ) dead even split
Randa..........2...................2.......... ( 0 in coors ) as a padre, even split
Nady............5...................8......... ( 3 in coors ) dead even split
Hernandez.....5...................7......... ( 1 in coors ) one different for away

The reason I used Greene and Klesko was that they are two of the only power guys with more than 400 AB's.......but there are the rest.....as you can see.....Coors played a large part in two of our power guys HR totals, which is all I was trying to get across....... subtract coors canaveral, and you have some pretty even splits...........which backs up my arguement that Petco isn't a launchpad, nor a pitchers park.....it simply plays fair !

Do you see my point now? I know you're not arguing the need for better power guys.....I'm not saying you are.......lol........