NL Cy Young: Is it really even a question who is the leading candidate?

[missionhockey21]

NL Cy Young: Is it really even a question who is the leading candidate?
by missionhockey21

As we move closer to the end of the season, the talk and the hype for player awards begins to build. And the discussion by the national media for one award, the National League Cy Young, is really frustrating me. Most so called “experts” seem to feel that at this point there are three legitimate candidates for the Cy Young; Chris Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals, Roger Clemens of the Houston Astros and Dontrelle Willis of the Florida Marlins. But the two being focused on, and understandably so, are Carpenter and Clemens. From analyzing the stats and understanding the situations, to me the winner is clear, at this point The Rocket deserves to win the CY Young without question.

Let’s take into consideration Clemens’ most dazzling statistic, his ERA, which currently stands at 1.53. Clemens is a 43 year old pitcher dominating the National League and leading his team to a potential wildcard position. I can’t think of many pitchers in recent memory (past 15 years or so) to be able to retain a sub 2.00 ERA in 200+IP. Kevin Brown had a 1.89 ERA with Marlins in 1996, Greg Maddux posted a 1.56 ERA in 1994 and a 1.63 ERA in 1995 both with the Braves, and Pedro Martinez had a 1.90 ERA in 1997 with the Expos and 1.74 ERA in 2000 with the Red Sox. And Clemens himself has achieved this before in his career, with his 1.93 ERA in 1990 with the Red Sox. As you can see from the pitchers who have done this recently, it’s not something that can be achieved in a fluke season and it’s rare at that. The fact that Clemens is on a pace for pitching over 200 innings at age 43 alone is amazing and is a testament to his work ethic. But all the pitchers listed who have achieved a sub 2.00 ERA in 200+IP all accomplished that during their prime, not as a middle aged man like Clemens has.

Let’s compare Carpenter to Clemens though and see if we can determine who has been the more dominant pitcher.

(Italicized teal text indicates who has the advantage for the particular category.)
Carpenter
ERA: 2.29
W-L: 17-4 (RS: 5.02)
IP: 188.1 IP
CG: 6
AVG: .215
K/9: 8.32
WHIP: .98
XBH: 46
OBP: .258
SLG: .326
OPS: .583

Clemens
ERA: 1.53
W-L: 11-5 (RS: 3.91)
IP: 170.1 IP
CG: 0
AVG: 1.87
K/9: 8.19
WHIP: .93
XBH: 30
OBP: .246
SLG: .261
OPS: .504

Key: ERA: Earned Run Average. W-L: Win Loss Record. RS: Run Support While Pitching. IP: Innings pitched. AVG: Opponents batting average against. K/9: Strikeouts per 9 Innings. WHIP: Walks+Hits/Innings Pitched. XBH: Extra base hits allowed. OBP: On Base Percentage Against. SLG: Slugging Percentage Allowed. OPS: On-Base Percentage+Slugging Percentage Against.

Carpenter has had a fantastic season but at this point, it’s a clear winner in terms of who has been the most dominant pitcher in the National League. Most of the categories that Carpenter leads in really are not so important that they would trump Clemens’ 1.53 ERA. He does have a better W-L record but then again his run support has been over 1 run higher. Not to mention the fact that I value W-L records to a near non-existent degree since it’s more a reflection of a dominant offense than a dominant pitcher, in other words I believe they are overrated. His 6 complete games and 4 shutouts are very impressive, but no so much so that would override all the other categories Clemens leads him in. As the stats show, Clemens has simply had nearly all batters look like fools. His stats show how dominant he has been this season and if a batter has done damage against him, he just got lucky.

This is history in the making, Clemens’ continues to show that neither injury (his back pain) nor his age can slow him down. I sincerely encourage any fan who has yet to watch Clemens pitch this season to make sure you catch at least one game to watch of his. He is a true competitor, one of the hardest working players in baseball and who all young pitchers should model their work ethic after. This is an extraordinary season which will hopefully land him his 8th Cy Young award. The Rocket doesn’t fail to impress and this season at age 43 is no exception.

Note: 2005 Statistics of Clemens and Carpenter are accurate as of 8/20. For the sub 2.00 ERA and 200+IP pitchers, there is a chance I missed one or two since I was searching through a 20 page list for those stats.

[Geki Ace]

Awesome article. If Clemens doesn't win, it'll be much worse than last year when he did win over Johnson, who's in the same situation Clemens is now.

[Providence A's]

I don't think Clemens will get it unless Carpenter starts sucking and Clemens gets more wins.

WHIP (.98 vs. .93) and OBP (.258 vs. .246) are not significantly different, so you can't really say Clemens is better in those 2 categories.

Carpenter has more wins, less losses, more complete games (6 vs. 0!!), more CG shutouts (4 vs. 0!!) and more innings (due to more CGs).

He also has more K's and less walks than Clemens (174:39 vs. 155:46).

Plus Carpenter is on a team that will win their division, while the Astros may not even make the playoffs (some voters look at playoffs vs. not making the playoffs).

It will be close, but unless Clemens can get some more wins or Carpenter falls apart, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Carpenter wins it.

[Fishercat]

Carpenter will only get it because a majority of writers who vote are ****ing idiots. They voted for Clemens over the clearly superior Johnson last year and they will vote for Carpenter (Trinity High School pride!) over a clearly superior Clemens this year, simply because it's clear that wins = best.

When it comes down to it, at this point, 18 innings pitched more doesn't make up for being 2/3 of an ER worse than Clemens.

[missionhockey21]

(It appeared from your post that you were arguing why you think the voters will give the nod to Carpenter versus Clemens. I am just arguing the points for the sake of giving Clemens rep. Just FYI.)

WHIP (.98 vs. .93) and OBP (.258 vs. .246) are not significantly different, so you can't really say Clemens is better in those 2 categories.

Well, he is better technically. But the difference is extremely small as you point out.

Carpenter has more wins, less losses, more complete games (6 vs. 0!!), more CG shutouts (4 vs. 0!!) and more innings (due to more CGs).

I really could care less about W-L record as I said earlier, sadly the writers do and they look at it in a very traditional manner. The Cardinals are a top offensive team (#5 in baseball versus #24 like the Astros) so Carpenter has had more leeway in giving up runs while still picking up a win. The Astros offense early this season was minimal to say the least. If Clemens had the same run support I am willing to bet that the W-L records would be similar. I do give Carpenter credit for his CG's and shutouts and thats what makes it somewhat close to me.

He also has more K's and less walks than Clemens (174:39 vs. 155:46).

Carpenter has shown tremendous control but it's unfair to look at the raw strikeout totals considering that Clemens is about 18 IP behind him. Their K/9 are very similar and only a strikeout or two more for Clemens would put them equal at K/9.

[777rak]

What about D-Train?

[General]

[missionhockey21]

What about D-Train?

Higher ERA, lower K/9, higher AVG just to name a few. He's having a great year, don't get me wrong. But I think at this point it's down to Carpenter and Clemens. Although if one of those guys have struggles, Willis could jump back in the race with strong numbers I suppose.

[CrazyEights]

I really could care less about W-L record as I said earlier, sadly the writers do and they look at it in a very traditional manner. The Cardinals are a top offensive team (#5 in baseball versus #24 like the Astros) so Carpenter has had more leeway in giving up runs while still picking up a win. The Astros offense early this season was minimal to say the least. If Clemens had the same run support I am willing to bet that the W-L records would be similar.

That's probably true! If you look at their quality starts (if you view over 50 a quality start) Carpenter is 22-2 and Clemens is 23-2. Both Carpenter and Clemens have an average game score of 66. Willis' average game score is 59.

[CrazyEights]

Higher ERA, lower K/9, higher AVG just to name a few. He's having a great year, don't get me wrong. But I think at this point it's down to Carpenter and Clemens. Although if one of those guys have struggles, Willis could jump back in the race with strong numbers I suppose.

Willis has gotten a lot more press than Carpenter, but he's not having as good of a season.

[joek]

The single most important thing a pitcher can do is WIN. Winning helps his team achieve the team goal (to WIN games). Personal stats and achievements are secondary to WINNING. Without doubt Carpenter receives the meaningless Cy Young Award. But I bet he doesn't care one way or the other if he helps his team WIN the World Series.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Nice article, mission!

And Clemens clearly deserves the award at this point. He has just been better than Carpenter.

I also wanted to point out that Clemens has really had fewer opportunities for CG than Carpenter, mainly because he has had smaller leads with which to work later in the games, which leads to more tension from the Manager about how long to leave him in. The Cards have often been ahead by several Runs before the 9th.

[Providence A's]

Clemens has had less opportunity for CGs? Every time a starter starts, he has a chance for a CG. What difference does it make if the score is close? If Clemens has been so dominant, then he should be able to finish it, no? Don't you want the most dominant pitcher in MLB pitching in a crucial situation?

And what difference does it make how many runs a team scores in this situation? 5 runs is slightly above average run support...Clemens is getting below average run support. Boo hoo! Too bad for him. If Clemens doesn't win it, then it's payback for the year he did win with the Yanks (20-3) when he got almost 7.5 runs of support with an ERA of 3.51 (he also had no CGs that year either with bigger leads)! Actually, Clemens only has 1 CG in the last 6 years! 3 in the last 8. If Carpenter was getting 7 runs, then fine, but he's getting 5 runs, that's not as big as it seems. And if Clemens threw some CG shutouts, then he'd have more wins. Take away Carpenter's CG shutouts, then recordwise they're about even.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Clemens has often been out after less than 100 pitches. It's not his fault that his Manager isn't very good.

And he has had fewer opportunities for CG. Managers often take pitchers out(even when pitching well) in very close games, which the Astros have been involved in when he's pitched. He's left several games this year with a 1-0 lead or 2-0 deficit, etc. There is less of a margin for error in his case than in Carpenter's case.

Regardless of that, Clemens has had the superior year based on the stats. and should win the Cy Young.

[CrazyEights]

The Astros bullpen isn't anything special besides Lidge. The Astros would have a better chance of winning a close game by keeping Clemens in the game unless he has run out of gas. I'd take a pitcher that is dominant for 8-9 innings over a pitcher that is only dominant for 6-7 innings anyday.