NL Cy Young: Is it really even a question who is the leading candidate?

[DirtyKash]

Don't forget about losses, joek.

[CrazyEights]

The problem with that is, Carpenter STILL gets about 1.6-1.7 more runs per game than Clemens does. If Clemens got 3.57 runs every game, he'd have more wins then he has now since he has lost a lot of games where his team gave him no runs. Even if Rodriguez, Mabry, etc. aren't good, they are still around 1.6 runs better every game. Among the Top 40 ERA leaders, Clemens has the third worst run support on the list, only bettering Jarrod Washburn and Esteban Loaiza. Chris Carpenter, if I counted correctly, is 12th on the list of 40. Considering the difference in run support between the two is approximately twice as large as the ERA difference, it's logical Carpenter will have more wins. It's somewhat luck that Carpenter has so many more wins, bad for Clemens and good for Carpenter, but the RS helps.

That's a very skewed stat. For example, if Clemens and Carpenter both last 9 innings in a game, and both allow no runs to score. The Astros score 1 run, and the Cardinals score 8 runs. It appears that Carpenter benefited by the Cardinals offense, but it didn't matter, because he would have won the game even if his team only scored one run. The additional 7 runs just pad the stat. Last time I had checked, both pitchers had an equal ratio of quality starts. It's not like Clemens is dominating every game, and Carpenter is getting a lot of cheap wins. I haven't followed each pitcher that closely, but by looking at Carpenter's stats, I don't see many (if any) cheap wins.

[Slyder]

Tell that to the teams who only go to the second season soley based on WINS. Tell that to the pitchers who try to WIN every game they start so that their team can WIN. Tell that to the pitchers who bust their butts, and have had and are having 20+ WIN seasons. tell that to all the 300+ WIN pitchers in the HOF.

WINS ARE THE ONLY STAT THAT COUNT!

So your saying it doesnt matter if a guy gets 8 runs of support every start and has a 5 era as long as he gets more support than he chokes away?

In which case you would LOVE these 2 guys in your rotation rotation:
Jimmy Haynes won 15 games in 02 with an 4.12 ERA, immediately followed that up with a 6 ERA the following year, and a 9.60 ERA before getting his release in Cincy.
Eric Milton- went 14-6 4.75 ERA followed that up with a 6.43 ERA (But thats down from a high of about oh 9).

Give me Roger Clemens any day of the week.

[joek]

Don't forget about losses, joek.

I agree. 20 WINS means little with 20 losses.

[joek]

So your saying it doesnt matter if a guy gets 8 runs of support every start and has a 5 era as long as he gets more support than he chokes away?

I never said that. As pointed out in this thread by CrazyEights, run support is just another misleading stat. You are assuming that if a pitcher gets 8 run support and gives up 5 runs, he 'choked it away'. In a pitchers 30+ starts his team may very well score anywhere from 10 to 20 runs in a few of those games. And they very well may score just 1 to 4 runs in a few of those games. If the pitcher gives up 7 to 9 runs when his team scores in double figures and also gives up 0 to 3 runs when his team scores 1 to 4 runs, he may very well finish the season with many more WINS than losses. With the WINS being the ultimate goal of the pitcher and the team, while his meaningless ERA is higher than some other pitchers.

[CrazyEights]

So your saying it doesnt matter if a guy gets 8 runs of support every start and has a 5 era as long as he gets more support than he chokes away?

In which case you would LOVE these 2 guys in your rotation rotation:
Jimmy Haynes won 15 games in 02 with an 4.12 ERA, immediately followed that up with a 6 ERA the following year, and a 9.60 ERA before getting his release in Cincy.
Eric Milton- went 14-6 4.75 ERA followed that up with a 6.43 ERA (But thats down from a high of about oh 9).

Give me Roger Clemens any day of the week.

Slyder,

For years, most peoaple have overated the wins/losses stat. If a player had a lot of wins, then he was a great pitcher. Now, too many people are underrating the wins and loss stat to where they view it as a meaningless stat. I view it as somewhere in the middle. If you have two great pitchers, then win/loss records do mean something. Win/Loss recors is just one stat that has to be viewed with others to evaluate a pitcher's performance. You can't just use one stat such as wins or era to say that a pitcher is great. There are many factors that make a pitcher better than another pitcher. Obviously if a pitcher has 3 full earned runs than another pitcher, he isn't as good even if he has more wins. If their ERA is within one run per 9 innings, then there are other factors that you have to consider.

[Slyder]

Wins in a pitchers case is can be miss leading because from first hand experience Haynes BEST performances were usually worse than Rogers worst starts this year. Give me a guy who goes out there and shuts down opponent's lineups. ANd you can keep your inflated win totals from pitchers cause the O bails them out and they pitch below average ball.

[Providence A's]

Everyone acts like Carpenter is getting 7 runs a game like Clemens did in 2001 when he won the Cy with a 3.51 ERA. Carpenter is getting less than that and has better overall numbers than that including ERA.

Let's just see how significantly different Carpenter's 5 runs or so of support per game are compared to the league average. MLB teams have combined for a total of 18,852 runs as of this morning. Divided by 30 (# of teams) and you get an average team score of 628.4. Divide that by the number of games player so far (approximately 136 for most teams) and that gives you 4.62. The Cardinals have score 690 in 137 games for 5.04 runs per game as a team. The means a + .42 against the league average. The Astros have scored 574 in 136 for an average of 4.22 for a difference of -.4.

The Cardinals are scoring 5 runs a game for all of their pitchers. Are all their pitchers 20 - 4? No. Do all of them have an ERA of 2.2? No. So you can say all you want about his huge run support (.4 higher than the league average and equal to his team's runs per game total), but the fact remains the guy has dominated the National League just as much as Clemens...he just has more wins to show for it and Clemens has had 2 chances to beat Carpenter and both times he failed.

[CrazyEights]

Give me a guy who goes out there and shuts down opponent's lineups.

I give you that guy, and his name is Chris Carpenter!

You can't compare Jimmy Haynes to Chris Carpenter. That boat don't float! Chris Carpenter dominates every team he's faced. Jimmy Haynes couldn't even dominate a little league team. I've read articles on prosportsdaily after almost every one of Carpenter's starts where the player he faced have stated that Carpenter was the toughest pitcher they faced all year. This isn't a Jimmy Haynes situation we're talking about.

[Slyder]

I give you that guy, and his name is Chris Carpenter!

You can't compare Jimmy Haynes to Chris Carpenter. That boat don't float! Chris Carpenter dominates every team he's faced. Jimmy Haynes couldn't even dominate a little league team. I've read articles on prosportsdaily after almost every one of Carpenter's starts where the player he faced have stated that Carpenter was the toughest pitcher they faced all year. This isn't a Jimmy Haynes situation we're talking about.

I was trying to show how W's could be bloated, since JoeK said "WINS ARE THE ONLY STAT THAT MATTERS"

[CrazyEights]

I was trying to show how W's could be bloated, since JoeK said "WINS ARE THE ONLY STAT THAT MATTERS"

I don't agree that wins as a statistic for a pitcher is all that matters. I also don't agree that wins mean nothing like many of the posts in this thread support. Wins for a pitcher do mean something, but it has to be balanced with the rest of the stats. A pitcher like Clemens may not get a lot of run support, but he also may not stay in the games long enough to get the win either. The more innings you hand over to your bullpen, the less chance you have at getting that win. Carpenter doesn't give his bullpen much of a chance to lose games for him, but Clemens does. The job of a Starting Pitcher is to give his team the best chance to win, and Carpenter's 19 wins is an indicator that he'd done a good job of that.

[Providence A's]

Carpenter has 20 wins now Crazy

[CrazyEights]

Carpenter has 20 wins now Crazy

Oppps! lol

[Saber]

Either guy can get it, and I'm fine with it. There have been worse choices, like relievers. And still, you guys waste too much space debating joek.

[realmofotalk]

Gagne getting the Cy over Jason Schmidt was sweet, although I thought Schmidt should've won it.