Originally Posted by CrazyEights
*sigh* Then if you go back to ERA, on average, Carpenter would allow (if you could allow fractional runs) around 2.3 earned runs per 9 and Clemens a fair amount below 2 earned runs per 9 innings.
I've done the math before on the effect of the bullpen. Even with the worst pen in baseball, the difference between the two ERAs was enough to still give Clemens more value with the ERAs merged.
The difference between Carpenter and Clemens out-wise is about 2 to 3 outs (2/3 to an inning) a game. In that 2/3-1 difference, the bullpen would need to allow enough runs to boost Clemens ERA about 7/10 of a point, which means about 2 runs every 3 innings, maybe a 6 ERA. If the Astros pen does not have a 6 ERA, logically, the difference does not hurt enough to justify ignoring the ERA difference.
QS are a not a precise stat. A 6 IP/3 ER game, a game that if a pitcher had it over a season would be average (4.5 ERA), is a QS. Likewise, a game with 9 IP/0 ER is also a QS. For Clemens sake, here are some games he didn't get wins in (IP and ER), his team may have won but he didn't.
7/0
7/0
7/0
7/3
7/2
6/2
5/0 (I wonder if he got injured there, only 70 pitches or so)
8/2
7/1
7/1
7/2
7/1
8/0
8/2
6/0
That's 15 QS (and one that was too short) in which he did not get a win. In comparison, Carpenter has had 6 quality starts in which he did not receive a win. The difference is 9 QS. Oddly enough, that difference is the same difference between their win totals. I don't like QS since it is not precise, it counts a 7/2 the same as a 6/3 or 9/1. But if you want to give some significance, there it is.
Carpenter isn't getting cheap wins at all (I think he had one or two max this year) and this is a superb pitching season only matched by the likes of Randy Johnson, Jason Schmidt, and only a select few others over the past years, and if he won, it wouldn't be bad. They are close pitchers, closer than the ERA suggests, but Clemens is having the best season since Pedro Martinez (arguably Bob Gibson purely on ERA, but 1999-2000 were huge offensive years with Pedro in an offensively superior AL).
The Run Support does matter although alone it isn't worth a whole lot, you have to transfer a whole team to make it significant, as even if you swapped their RS, you need to swap at least bullpens to make it a fair cross-team comparison since the Stros seem to choke when Clemens leaves the game.
They are both pitching fantastically...just Clemens has been more fantastic than Carpenter.