BS Tackles the Trades from 2010 (Part 1)

[Kingdom]

Every year, BS aka S3F, gets together to form a team to breakdown the important (or not so important) trades that have gone down. The likes of Browntown, Fishercat, etc. have walked down the path of trade analysis, and now, we bring 2010 to the masses. But due to one of the more active, grandiose deadlines we've seen in years, things are being broken down into tiers. We've been able to assess things from afar with more data than usual. And it's been nothing short of a memorable 2010.



Tiers of the Arm


Texas acquires: Cliff Lee and Mark Lowe
Seattle acquires: Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke, and Matt Lawson

[CJKalt] In a deal that happened within a hour, Cliff Lee had his bags packed for NYY until the Rangers finally were willing to part with Justin Smoak. For the Rangers, getting that legit ace solidified their chances in the AL postseason because they weren’t going to beat a NYY/TB/BOS without a legit ace when these teams have at least 3 #1 starters in their rotations, sometimes you have to overpay to get your man and the price wasn’t completely outrageous. I do wonder what Seattle was thinking though, getting a power hitting 1B who has to hit into Safeco’s right field 81 games a year is very intriguing, when you look at past successful Seattle teams they didn’t have the mashers in the lineup, they had high average guys, that hit in the clutch (think John Olerud) and I’m not sure that Justin Smoak is a good fit for the Seattle organization, I don’t think he has the upside that was required to make this deal. Don’t get me wrong this is more than they gave up but I think they would have been better off with the 2 1st round picks they woulda gotten as compensation
Winners: Texas, got an ace and 2 1st round picks for no sure stud specs
Losers: Seattle, for not maximizing Lee return

[Kingdom] I believe there's three things we can take from this trade: 1) It prevented the Evil Empire from being the clear cut favorites this season, 2) Cliff Lee is one of the greatest journeymen ever, and 3) The last 4-5 years have proven that Seattle really has no idea what it's doing and how to do it. And it's a shame. Acquiring Lee in the first place was certainly not a questionable move, not at all. They managed to get some return value, whether it's as good as what they might have wound up with if they had kept Lee and let him walk at the end of the year, I don't know. But what I do know is that any realistic baseball fan would have known Seattle was not a contender before the season began. They ultimately did not have much talent, and apparently, didn't have a manager anyone liked. What we know at this very point in time, Lee is not healthy and he hasn't been pitching well. Maybe that's for the best, so he can be rested for the post season. We know he can beat anyone on the biggest stages, but if he can't go, the Empire is walking back to the World Series.
Winner: Fans of Texas
Loser: Fans of Seattle


Philadelphia acquires: Roy Oswalt and Cash
Houston acquires: J.A. Happ, Jonathan Villar, and Anthony Gose (who was then dealt to Toronto for Brett Wallace)

[realmofotalk] In the middle of the 2001 baseball season, Roy Oswalt burst onto the scene for the Houston Astros as a relatively unheralded pitching prospect and finished his rookie year with a 14-3 record and showed the pitching command and poise of a 10-year veteran while he and Wade Miller carried the Astros into the playoffs. Fast forward to this year and Oswalt is very much the accomplished 10-year veteran, a workhorse who has pitched 200+ innings six times and was twice a 20-game winner. The Phillies now feature Oswalt as part of three-headed monster atop the Phillies' rotation that already includes former Cy Young award winner Roy Halladay and 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels. Pitching his home games at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park should not be a challenge for Oswalt, who previously spent his MLB career pitching his home games at Minute Maid Park whose short outfield dimensions favor hitters. The only visible part of the deal for the Astros is young left-handed starter J.A. Happ. Similar to Oswalt in 2001, Happ finished second in his campaign for NL Rookie of the Year, when he went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA and emerged as a front of the rotation starter for the Phillies during their playoff run last year. This year, however, an elbow injury that limited Happ to 3 starts for the Phillies prompted the team to include him in this trade. Anthony Gose, 19, is the prototypical "toolsy" outfielder, as he has the range and arm to play center field at the major league level and led all minor leaguers with 76 stolen bases in 2009, but is far from a disciplined hitter at this stage as he is hitting .262/.332/.393 with a 45/132 BB/K ratio at the High-A level this year. Dominican shortstop Jonathan Villar, 19, has plus defensive skills and speed, but like Gose, is raw with the bat. He is currently hitting .262/.323/.361 in combined games at the Low-A and High-A levels.
Winners: Phillies, who establish themselves as the team to beat in the National League as their starting rotation for the postseason should they get there finally features three ace pitchers, which should appease Phillies fans who have been lamenting the departure of Cliff Lee in the trade for Halladay.

[Missionhockey21] After a month of will he or won’t he and optionmania, Roy Oswalt finally accepted a deal to go to a team with his brother in first name only, the Phillies. With the Roy Duo Supreme, the Phillies top of the rotation looked very similar to what it should have… if they kept Cliff Lee. That aside, Oswalt has continued his stellar 2010 season with a 2.18 ERA in Philly, a BAA of .218, and a solid K/9. Oswalt is a great pitcher, he made the Phillies better and he will help to the very end, the only question is if this move could have been avoided had the Phillies kept Lee. The Phillies also get $11 million dollars to help with Oswalt’s established way of life (oops, confusing this with the McCourts.) The Astros finally decided it was time to give up the dream and started to let go of the pieces that once defined their franchise. In return they get J.A. “I wasn’t as good as my numbers showed last season, but I’m probably better than what they show now” Happ. Worst nickname ever. Happ is striking out and walking more, with the right tweaks though, he definitely is a solid starter for the Astros to keep part of their plans, but ace he is not. The Astros also got OF Anthony Gose, who they turned into former 1st rounder 1B Brett Wallace in another trade made with the Blue Jays. Wallace cruised through AAA, but once he received the starting spot with Berkman’s departure, his numbers look so embarrassing that I will spare him the pain and omit them here. Still, he has potential to be a middle of the order presence for the Astros. The Astros also got speedy SS Jonathan Villar who I don’t know a ton about so let’s skip him.
Advantage: Phillies. Had the Astros got the same haul without picking up any of Oswalt’s salary, it might be flipped. The Phillies got their 1B ace and did it without giving up a ton. Happ should improve as he is coming back from an injury and Wallace, who they didn’t directly give, should be an impact player… but neither are Oswalt. Still, they needed to move on and this at least puts them in the right direction.



Los Angeles (A) acquires: Dan Haren
Arizona acquires: Joe Saunders, Rafael Rodriguez, Patrick Corbin, and Tyler Skaggs

[Foster] In 2009 Dan Haren was listed as #33 on the Sporting News’ list of the 50 greatest current major league players. So any team picking him up this season would have to be considered the winner. Let’s review. LA picks up another pitcher at the deadline. Last season it was Scott Kazmir, well this season they pick up an arguably better pitcher in Haren. LA looking for a spark to help them run down the Rangers in the west picked up Haren who had gone 7-8 with a 4.60 era in Arizona this season. Since making the move Haren has gone 2-4, but lowered the era to 4.02. Arizona picked up a replacement pitcher in Saunders, who between 2008-2009 picked up 38 wins for the Angels. Corbin has won 13 games this season between various Class A leagues as a starter. Skaggs the “PTBNL”, was a 1st round pick in 2009, and has won 8 games this season in class A.
Advantage: Draw. Haren is a great pitcher, there is no doubt about it. His numbers throughput his major league career are of the highest regard. What forces this trade into the win-win situation is the inclusion of Saunders. Saunders is a proven winner in the majors and was a member of the 2008 All-Star team. Saunders isn’t that old, and still has some arbitration time left on his contract. Good players like Haren, and Saunders don’t get moved that often. In the end bothe teams receive some “goods”.

[Missionhockey21] Dan Haren really has not had that instant turnaround many were expecting with his arrival in LA. He has been better, giving up less hits, less homers than he did in Arizona with an ERA about .60 points lower, but his K/9 has been down significantly so its been mixed. He has only had two quality starts in five games. I don’t watch Haren enough to know what the problem really is, and in the long run I think this could pay off for the Angels, its just hasn’t happened yet. Also, Haren’s ESPN player photo looks like a mugshot, just sayin’. Saunders has been hittable, hasn’t struck out many, and has a bloated ERA as a result, anything new? The real score for the D-Backs is getting pitching prospect Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs is a lanky left-hander who is still some ways away, but he has a big dropping curve with a fastball that could be pretty nice as he fills out. At this stage he isn’t an ace in the making, but as we all know, a lefthander who develops a couple big out pitches can go from a potential 3rd starter to an ace pretty fast.
Advantage: I like Skaggs, but I like Haren more. Maybe Haren gets praise from people like me too much because of past achievements, but given his age and his ability to still throw a gem occasionally, I believe he will bounce back.


Arizona acquires: Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg
Chicago (A) acquires: Edwin Jackson*

[Missionhockey21] With an ERA over 5.00, a WHIP at 1.50, and a big step back from his 2009 All-star effort, Jackson wasn’t exactly a solid bet for the White Sox to trade for. But clearly Kenny Williams, shockingly enough, made a good deal. In 28 innings since coming to Chi-Town, Jackson has posted a 0.96 ERA, with a 10.93 K/9, and quality starts in each of his four starts with a maximum of one allowed ER in any start. Compare that 0.96 ERA in August to his 7.24 ERA in July (his June wasn’t bad either, so inconsistency is a problem for Mr. Jackson.)
As for Daniel Hudson, the D-Backs aren’t regretting their haul either. Hudson is 6 for 6 in quality starts, going at least 7 deep in each game, scattering 30 hits over 42 innings, and a 8.66 K/9. At only 23 years old, Hudson looks to be a mainstay at the top of the D-Backs rotation for years to come.
Advantage: Arizona with the slight edge. Both pitchers are young and can have electric stuff, but Jackson has had consistency problems and is not going to be locked up cheaply for several years like Hudson. If Jackson has rebounded to his 2009 pitching, he may be the better pitcher though.

[Kingdom] There's a point in time when you have to laugh at yourself for ever thinking of such wild ideas. For example, it's funny to consider including this trade in this tier with the 3 aces we saw moved during the 2010 season. I agree, and it's absurd. Edwin Jackson has lived a young career filled with many adventures and failures, with every stop ending with unresolved headaches. Jackson is a clear example of an athlete, who has all-world talent and gifts, but mentally he is unable to obtain and maintain the high level of greatness he flashes every season. He's an all-star, he's pitched a bizarre no hitter, he's been dealt for Danys Baez, he's been dealt for Matt Joyce (who competes with Dan Johnson for DH at bats), and he was born in Germany. We do not know what is going on in his head, and perhaps that's for the best. But is it possible Jackson has finally realized what he needs to be in order to stop being dealt from team to team despite being only 27. Here is what I do know, he has been vicious since being traded to Chicago. He has looked the best he's ever been in his entire professional career. You combine that with Dan Hudson essentially being every bit as dominant since the trade, for Arizona, you have a deal that for now, has to been mentioned with these other pitchers. It is not often you see a Major League trade in which both teams immediately see dividends.
Winner: Both teams for now
Loser: The Nationals, since they didn't want either arm




*editors note: this was posted in the team leader's forum earlier in the day before Edwin Jackson was summarily waxed. It's not BS without a jinx.

[Saber]

I think Smoak is a stud, but Lueke is a disaster. They traded for a rapist. I'm not exaggerating.

[love_that_reefer]

I think Smoak is another one of those AAAA players. His approach at the plate is pure shit and he will always strike out a ton. The M's really ****ed up with the Lee trade. They didn't do a very good job of shopping him and just every GM agrees they could have gotten a much better package for Lee. The M's continue to drop the ball.

I liked the Oswalt deal for both teams. Astros got back a solid MLB ready lefty who has been better than they hoped since the trade and I also like how they got Brett Wallace because of this trade. Wallace, from all accounts, is a smart baseball player and will figure out how to hit at the highest level. I put a lot more faith in him than I do Smoak.

The Angels getting Haren was a great deal for the Angels because now they have a #2 type for at least two more seasons and possibly three if they pickup his option.

I hate the Hudson deal because now my Giants have to face him more and more and so far he has owned us. This was a great pickup for the Dbacks.

[realmofotalk]

Smoak's BB/K numbers in the minor leagues were respectable. What I didn't know is that he can't hit breaking balls a la Billy Ashley.

[missionhockey21]

Smoak is young enough still that I think it is too soon to call him a AAAA, but he really does need to work on his pitch recognition and approach if he wants to put up numbers like he has through the minors.

The Hudson for Jackson deal was great all around. Of course Hudson could have put up those numbers for Chicago if he was given the time, but the White Sox do have someone a bit more tested for the stretch run (not that it seems like it will do them much good now, despite Jackson's efforts.)

[love_that_reefer]

Smoak's BB/K numbers in the minor leagues were respectable. What I didn't know is that he can't hit breaking balls a la Billy Ashley.

I felt the same for Bowker but it was clear he was lost at the MLB level. Minor league numbers just don't always translate to MLB talent. I think Smoak is that type.

[realmofotalk]

A true fan pays tribute to guys like Greg Brock and Billy Ashley as much as they do for the heroes with the retired numbers.

[missionhockey21]

And you sir have been tweeted. +1 rep.

[cjkalt]

I'm excited for part 2!!!

[realmofotalk]

A true fan pays tribute to guys like Greg Brock and Billy Ashley as much as they do for the heroes with the retired numbers.

Memories of Dodgers legend Kal Daniels: