The 100% Dirty Dozen (Part 2 - Pitchers)

[missionhockey21]

Universally Loved… and Regretted

As with Part 1 featuring position players, these are six pitchers who are 100% owned in ESPN fantasy leagues. Unlike the hitters though, really none on this list has been truly bad, but their performance hasn't quite lived up to their names. This is not to point out droppables or anything like that, but rather to take another look at those owned fully to better understand where their season has not gone according to planned.

Dan Haren SP - Arizona Diamondbacks
5 W, 4 L, 82.0 IP, 93 H, 44 ER, 16 HR, 15 BB, 83 SO

Haren is the one 100% owned pitcher bordering on a bad season. While some of his peripherals are still solid, he is falling short of the 2007-2009 Dan Haren level of performance we have come to expect from him in fantasy. With a 4.8+ ERA and his highest WHIP at this number of innings pitched, Haren is only 5-4. Much of that can be explained by the fact that it seems hitters have his number thus far this season. His BAA has gone from .224 last season to .283 this season, and he has given up 16 homers in only 82 IP. He can still be counted on to deliver the K's as he is averaging a +9 K/9.

Verdict: Haren's value is much lower than normal and the chances are that he will find his way back. Since he was probably drafted around the 3rd round, you should keep him and ride the storm out.

CC Sabathia SP - New York Yankees
5 W, 3 L, 78.1 IP, 68 H, 36 ER, 12 HR, 24 BB, 61 SO

Sabathia is hot off his first win in a month (yay), but it was against the Orioles (oh.) Playing with a lineup like he has behind him, I am sure most who drafted him around the 2nd round were hoping for more than 5 wins at this point. Like Dan Haren though, he is another top-tier fantasy pitcher struggling with longballitis as he has allowed 12 homers in 78 IP, versus the 18 he allowed 230 IP last season. Other than an ERA nearly 1 run higher than last year and the VERY increased homerun total, little is different about CC and in fact, his GB/FB ratio is over 1.00 again, which would be a very nice positive trend to see continue over the season. His K/9 continues to decline which is worrisome, but it is very close to what he produced last season and he had a great year then.

Verdict: It's 80 innings, he's a good pitcher, and the W's will come. Keep him.

AJ Burnett SP - New York Yankees
6 W, 3 L, 77.1 IP, 75 H, 32 ER, 7 HR, 28 BB, 55 SO

Burnett was drafted much later than the other SP's on this list so the expectations placed on him were less too. And in fact, he seems on pace to produce above what he did last season. His ERA, WHIP, and HR pace are down with only his BAA slightly up. Like Sabathia, he has also had a noticeable spike in inducing groundballs with a +1.00 GB/FB ratio. The reason he made this list largely is due to his K/9 decline. Many owners, myself included, drafted Burnett to fill out the middle of our rotation and to get some needed punchouts. His K/9 has been on the decline since 2007, when it was nearly 9.6, and now it is at 6.4.

Verdict: The new Burnett is not all bad. At 6-3, for where he was drafted, he is helping your team in most leagues, but if you drafted him for strikeouts, you may want to look elsewhere. He did have two outings in May with 8 strikeouts, but they were against the Orioles and the Indians.

Cole Hamels SP - Philadelphia Phillies
5 W, 4 L, 64.1 IP, 71 H, 30 ER, 11 HR, 23 BB, 64 SO

At only 26, most were hoping they were getting a fantasy steal with Hamels. 2009 was not his best effort, not bad, but certainly not what you expected from him. Many had hoped this was the exception and not the rule with Hamels, but it is looking to be more true. Nearly everything with Hamels is in line with what he did last season, minus very insignificant small differences. His allowed HR pace is up, as he has given up 11 homers in only 64 IP. His K/9 is up too, sitting at 8.95 K/9, but he is giving up more walks too.

Verdict: Given his average draft position and the Phillies sometimes anemic offense, if you can find someone who is a believer in Hamels, he could be worth the gamble to trade. At any moment he could find "it" again, but at the same time he could continue on this path and not deliver in any one category exceptionally well.

Zack Greinke SP - Kansas City Royals
1 W, 7 L, 75.0 IP, 77 H, 30 ER, 9 HR, 17 BB, 60 SO

Zack is becoming a very active member on FMyLife.com

Verdict: Thanks to his pen, his lineup, Greinke's W-L looks much worse than it should be. He himself has been a little inconsistent this year, but unless you are in a league that doesn't count W-L, don't even think about trading him when his value would be this low.

Francisco Cordero RP - Cincinnati Reds
16 SV, 3 BSV, 1 W, 3 L, 27.0 IP, 28 H, 10 ER, 3 HR, 11 BB, 22 SO

Cordero is second in the NL in saves to only Capps, but he has been a rollercoaster to both watch and have. With 3 BSV already, one shy of his total from last season, his 9th innings have been anything but guaranteed. He has already exceeded his HR total from last season, and his K/9 is slightly down. The Reds are giving him plenty of chances and this is likely to continue throughout the season.

Verdict: If you don't mind following a gamecast and seeing CoCo allow two or three on before barely closing it out, you should be fine. If he stays healthy, he should finish with over 40 saves. Cordero is among the bottom tier of 100% top closers so it would be hard to trade him up unless you were trading something else down.

[realmofotalk]

If you don't mind following a gamecast and seeing CoCo allow two or three on before barely closing it out, you should be fine.

I know where you're coming from. It's like every time a Dodger reliever is pitching, I see those two or three dots on the infield map light up.