The Long Term Look: 2004's Carlos Beltran and other guys who are kinda centerfielders

[Saber]

We all know who was a free agent coming into this year, and where they signed. We also now how these players are doing as of now. But so what? What can we expect in the future from these men on which so much is riding? Vinny Castilla is hitting now, but what can we reasonably expect him to do through his contract? Carlos Beltran? Carl Pavano? I will analyze these men, and their reasonable futures in this, an ongoing column.

The key word is reasonable folks, so no, I won't say your team's big signing will be a Hall-of-Famer unless I think he is. Of course, I reserve the right to be wrong and completely change my mind later. On to it:

Steve Finley

Anaheim Angels
Contract- $6 million in 2005, $8 million in 2006
What he is- An old slugging centerfielder, Steve Finley had been the slowly rusting anchor of the Diamondbacks for years. He's never walked much, but he's hit plenty of bombs to make himself a valuable player.
What he will be- At 40, it's his bat speed to watch. When that goes, he loses everything. His batting averages through last year don't portend a major decline soon. His defense has deteriorated along the lines of Bernie Williams, although he isn't Bernie bad out there. Maybe he will be by the end of this contract.
Mitigating Circumstances- Playing with an injured shoulder all year, Finley finally went to the DL for it, explaining his .225/.287/.408 line. The power is still there. We'll see if the average comes back when Finley does. He's struggles mightily at home. Maybe it's the high fence in right field at Angels Stadium?


Alex Sanchez

San Francisco Giants, I think
Contract- Who the hell knows at this point?
What he is- A slap-and-dash hitter, with a lot of speed he doesn't use effectively, in the field or on the basepaths. Guys like this live and die on wildly varying batting averages. Add to that his steroid suspension (which is inexplicable, not only because he has zero power, but as I said before, he can't even use his speed properly), and you have a screwed up Tony Womack with a centerfielder's glove. There wasn't an emptier .322 average last year's than Alex's.
What he will be- A drain on the Giants offense. Even if he hits .320 again.
Mitigating Circumstances-He hit .354 for the DRays, who were smart enought to lock in their gains and cut him quickly. Joining the Giants, he's done nothing you'd want to read about. That's the life of guys like this. The steroids are really a secondary issue. This just isn't a good player.


Carlos Beltran

New York Mets
Contract- $11,571,429 in 2005, $119 million through 2011
What he is- Beltran has shown that he is an elite-level CF, and had been one of the most underated players in the game. With great defense, efficiency on the basepaths, and emerging great power last year, he has a .282/.352/.486 career line through age 28. That's a Hall of Famer so far.
What he will be- With a huge contract for a very long time, there's always a measure of risk of injury or sudden decline. Even with that, this a man in his prime, who has excelled in all aspects of the game and consolidated them, unlike, say, and Andruw Jones, who people still expect to have a breakout year (he is already). There hasn't been a $100 million this relatively safe since Alex Rodriguez.
Mitigating Circumstances- A .266/.323/.431 line in 2005 isn't great, but there are some things to remember. Beltran has gone from big hitter's parks in Kansas City and Houston to the cavernous spaces of Shea, so there's bound to be some dropoff. The rest is batting average, which should bounce back over time. What does concern me are his lack of steals (only 4 for 6 this year). Either Willie Randolph forgets who he has, or the most succesful base-stealer ever has lost his speed.

[Witlon]

On Alex Sanchez:

Are you really saying that a team is smart for cutting someone who was hitting .350+ with the 2nd best OPS on their team?

His steroid suspension, you know nothing about. This guy's got a character problem, sure, but if he said it was OTC medication, there is no reason that he shouldn't be believed.

Heh, I still can't believe you said a team should cut their losses on their second best hitter until he was cut...That still, heh, blows my mind.

[Saber]

Do you really expect Alex Sanchez to hit .350 going forward? Do you ever think he'll draw walks or hit for any power? Do you really think he'll steal bases efficiently enough to have it be an asset to his game?

Alex Sanchez is the Neifi Perez of the outfield.

[love_that_reefer]

Steve Finley still play great defense. He won a GG last year and this year he has battled injuries. I expect his bat to pick up. Why was Alex Sanchez even brought up? He is a utility outfielder now. Beltran has been somewhat of a bust so far for the Mets. He won't live up to this contract. .266 with just 44 RBI isn't gonna cut it.

[Saber]

I brought up Alex Sanchez to pad the article. It also shows what some teams choose to start in center, compared to what we consider top-tier guys like Finley or Beltran. Well, Beltran.

[love_that_reefer]

Sanchez has looked like absolute crap in RF for the Giants tonight. I still don't see why we picked him up but before July 31st, he will be on another team.

[realmofotalk]

Reefer, look at my reply in "Giants claim Sanchez off waivers?" in your team forum to answer your question.

[General]

Well, so much for Beltran being nurtured by the media. The FAN is tearing him a new one every minute.

[Witlon]

Do you really expect Alex Sanchez to hit .350 going forward? Do you ever think he'll draw walks or hit for any power? Do you really think he'll steal bases efficiently enough to have it be an asset to his game?

Alex Sanchez is the Neifi Perez of the outfield.

No, he's not a great bet to hit .300, or .290 for that matter, he's a liability on D and his speed disappeared.

But it's still absurd to say a team is cutting their losses by releasing the 2nd best hitter in OPS at the time of his release.

[Wally Mo Pena]

this article does a great job of glossing over Beltran's terrible season. Why? Haven't the mets shown you that they can make a bad signing out of just about anybody by this point?

Craig Monroe, David DeJesus, Vernon Wells, Brady Clark, Brad Wilkerson, and Grady Sizemore combined make 3 million less than Beltran. What those players have in common is that they are all centerfielders hitting better than Carlos. For a last place team that is signing Danny graves off of waivers to try to help their pen, it seems like they might have put their money in the wrong place, especially with cameron and floyd having great years and victor diaz waiting in the wings.

[Couglas Donley]

Wally Mo has generally given me what I consider to be an insider's view on some of baseball's more finely tuned aspects. His perceptions and humor--gotta love the Vests piece---about many of the games more salient and often unbelievably ignornant moves by the entitity known as mangagement (SEE REDS front office) and their on-going boondogles are to be commneded. As a long time Red Sox and Reds fan this year has put parts of my anatomy in the perverbial vice. The Sox have made moves which I really detest ('hey why even try to maintain any semblance of a "team"') while the Reds are painful (and that's putting in mildly) to watch. Wally Mo has given me a chance to get some perspective and helped restore my sense of humor on what has been hard to swallow season thus far. I can only say thanks and that I look forward to more good writing and insightful comments. In the end, it really is just a game.

[Saber]

Gee, thanks.

[Kingdom]

Good news!

Brad Wilkerson isn't better than Beltran now!