Bronson Arroyo: Post-ASG Warrior

[missionhockey21]

Ah, Bronson Arroyo. What do you think of? A #4 starter paid like a #2 starter? His exquisite mane? His singing career? Well, much like his musical ability, I am sure Mr. Arroyo is a party of one when thinking he deserves his contract. And in a way, he is right. His last 70 innings, or since his name was kicked around in the trade rumor mill, he has been virtually unstoppable.

For several seasons now I have argued about my theory of a divided Bronson Arroyo. Most people do not watch the Reds or follow the Reds much as they are not media darlings, and for good reason, but rather look at Arroyo’s bottom line. And the bottom line usually is that of an effective but not spectacular pitcher who logs innings and gets the job done without a level of dominance achieved. But if you would look closer at his seasons, you can find patterns of a #2 and even of an ace. This of course means to balance out to what he is, he needs to pitch pretty poor, which happens. To prove my point I will use the simplest of stats with as little investigation as possible. If I can find these stats at 6:30 AM and write this article within a half hour, any GM worth his weight would be able to do the same (wearing a Matt Stairs t-shirt is purely optional, although highly recommended.)

Over his past 11 starts, Arroyo has 10 quality starts, thrown two complete game shutouts, and pitched into the 7th inning or later in 10 of those starts. Over these 70 innings of work, he has reduced his ERA from 5.85 to 4.23. We could dive further into the statistics, but the picture of Arroyo since early July is rather clear; he could have been a huge help for a team in contention.

Let’s look at a simple split for Arroyo, certainly makes my job easier (big numbers scare the hell out of me,) post-ASG numbers.

Year	IP	H	ER	BB	K	ERA
2006	110.2	100	43	32	86	3.50
2007	99.0	105	39	25	81	3.55
2008	96.0	87	37	27	70	3.47

And in 2009….

Year	IP	H	ER	BB	K	ERA
2009	71.0	63	19	19	42	2.41

Arroyo has had trends which are not the most encouraging, notably his decreasing K/9, but it’s hard to argue with overall success coming after the All-Star Game. We could speculate all day and some of the night on why he improves in the second half; works the rust and the kinks out of his delivery, enjoys a mini vacation on his party boat (search for the pics, I’m not your smut provider), the Reds have completely killed any playoff hopes typically by this point and creates a low stress working environment, etc.

No matter how you slice it though, it seems like Arroyo could have been the arm that some NL teams needed to give them that playoff push and in the new economic times of baseball, teams are valuing frugality over making the required moves for success. The Reds may have been able to move him if they included all-star play C. Ash but alas that is more frugality. Then again, if the Reds are as delusional as they lead us to believe, perhaps they realize the 2nd half warrior that Arroyo is and decided his July-September performance of 2010 might be nice to have.

[realmofotalk]

Even if Arroyo's best years are being wasted in Cincy, at the very least you can sleep well knowing that your team is the beneficiary of Theo Epstein's worst trade to date. Who would have thought that it was Wily Mo Pena, and not Arroyo, whose value had peaked?

[nick]

Good read mission.

Bronson Arroyo is impossible to place firm contract value on, in any given season. 200 innings 5 years in a row (which he is currently on pace to do, barring injury or otherwise) with an ERA around 4.20 on average over that time period, should be very valuable, especially if the team he plays on a squad that can score. As a 3rd or 4th starter who can eat innings, I'd love to have a player like Arroyo who can go 7 or more almost every time out there and keep you in the game most of the time (his 8 straight quality starts as of the last time he pitched is a good indicator of this). However, on the market, I don't know how much someone like him is worth, and if Cincy is looking for frontline prospects, I don't think I would personally want to see a team I was a fan of give them up for Arroyo.

He seems like a guy who could hit FA and sit until January or Febuary, when most of the chips have already fallen. I couldn't even guess what kind of market value he will have by that point, I guess a lot of it depends on what kind of season he has next year (assuming the Reds or whoever he's with buy him out for 2011, which might not happen if he's pitching good). I just don't see him getting a monster deal, but when you compare him statistically lately, he stacks up next to Barry Zito pretty much. And like Arroyo, Zito too is a second-half pitcher. It'll be interesting to see if Arroyo can get even half of what Zito got when he signed with SF, keeping in mind Arroyo is a few years older and probably considered to half less upside than Zito did at that point. But they're both similar pitchers and I just couldn't even imagine Arroyo getting a deal like that.

[Doppelgänger]

Every May I wonder why we keep him, and every September I wonder why we would ever trade him.

[missionhockey21]

Every May I wonder why we keep him, and every September I wonder why we would ever trade him.

What a remarkably true statement.

And Nick, I do agree. I think there is a market for Arroyo, it just depends on who he is competing with. Free agency has changed from the days of Zito and other monster contracts to an extent and Arroyo is not exactly the kind of talent that would get a deal beyond his ability (compared to a flamethrower with similar numbers whose upside would be perceived as higher.) In a mediocre free agency class or one marred with injury prone pitchers, Arroyo's dependability and rubber arm could however be prized. If he managed to lower his ERA below 4.00, the Reds could perhaps get what they would desire for him.

BTW, another quality start last night against the Rockies. 7 IP of 2 ER baseball. ERA is now down to 4.17 for the season.