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Today is the 29th day in July, which brings baseball fans closer to the moment they either praise or curse the general manager of their favorite ball club. We are just three days away from the non-waiver trade deadline. No doubt, each buying general manager (GM) has all his competitors on speed dial. And the sellers have their phones turned all the way up. And while the phones are ringing and proposals are being made, next to nothing has come together for these clubs.
Many teams have expressed their needs for what they believe would put them in contention. There are teams that can fulfill those needs with the players these contending teams covet. So why hasn’t there been that many trades yet? I find myself constantly asking this same perpetual question, but I have not come up with a suitable answer.
Perhaps many teams are holding out for more. For example; GM [a] may have a fine offer on the table from GM [b] and is waiting to see if a better offer will be made or if a different proposal with GM [c] will materialize. Or maybe it is like some cases where one move sparks another and we get a wildfire of transactions over the course of a few days.
Nevertheless, I still think moves will be made and am not about to give up hope on where I believe some of the big names are going. I would like to discuss some of those names right now.
Mark Teixeira
Mark Teixeira Pos. AVG HR RBI OBP SLG 1B .299 13 49 .401 .532
The Angels, Braves, and Dodgers look to be the front runners for acquiring the big first baseman. The Angels have offered first baseman Casey Kotchman and a choice of outfielders Nathan Haynes and Terry Evans. There are also reports that the Angels could offer a pitcher to the mix as well. Names like Nick Adenhart, Ervin Santana, or Joe Saunders are intriguing and likely available.
The Braves are said to have talked about Jared Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, and Matt Harrison. But there are also reports that their young prospects are not available. Perhaps they would bend on that for a guy like Teixeira.
The Dodgers like Teixeira and Joaquin Benoit or Eric Gagne. Maybe they can find a deal to work with their surplus of young talent.
My prediction here is that the Angels will get the big left handed bat for Casey Kotchman, Terry Evans, and Ervin Santana. Kotchman is having a good season and is showing he can make solid contact. He is a left-handed first baseman who can step in to fill the void left by Teixeira. Terry Evans is a 25-year-old centerfielder playing AAA ball for the Salt Lake Bees. He his hitting for a nice average at a .317 clip and has an .865 OPS. Not bad for someone who just caught up to his ability. And finally Ervin Santana is a work in progress but is still young and talented enough to take a chance on. If he becomes anywhere near as good as once expected, this could end up being a steal for the Rangers.
Adam Dunn
Adam Dunn Pos. AVG HR RBI OBP SLG LF/DH/1B .266 27 67 .368 .554
Adam Dunn has been linked to nearly every contender it seems. But Reds general manager Wayne Krivsky seems to be asking the world for him even though he would only be a rent-a-player for the rest of the season for the acquiring team.
I believe the closest teams are the Padres, Braves, and possibly the Angels or Dodgers. These teams are still in contention and a bat the size of Dunn’s would be a major upgrade in the power department. I would like to believe the Padres had a shot, but after trading Scott Linebrink to the Brewers, they may not have much to offer. The other three teams are the leading candidates for the Teixeira sweepstakes and once he goes, Dunn should be plan B. I have Teixeira going to the Angels so that leaves Dunn for the Braves or Dodgers.
My prediction is that Dunn does not get traded and the Reds pick up his team option for 2008. Wayne Krivsky just isn’t getting the offers he may have thought he would get and he doesn’t want to pull another deal like he did with the Nationals last season. I just don’t see Dunn being traded unless it is really close to the deadline and someone throws out an offer he cannot refuse. The Dodgers may be in the best position to do that. Loney, Kershaw, and Ethier may be available if the Dodgers do not land anything else.
Jermaine Dye
Jermaine Dye Pos. AVG HR RBI OBP SLG RF .234 18 51 .295 .459
Dye once was touted as a suitor for the Yankees, but those talks ended quickly last month. The frontrunners for this outfielder are the Mets and Mariners. Dye has a partial no-trade clause and stipulations are that Dye will only be traded to a team where he will play everyday. Kenny Williams has asked for packages like Khalil Greene and Scott Linebrink for Dye and many general managers are staying away from these demands.
My only concern for the team that gets him is whether they will pay for what he did last season or if they are paying attention to his numbers this year. He was an MVP candidate last season, but just look at that OBP and tell me he is the same player. Dye may be traded afterall, but if the White Sox are wanting more than a really good glove at shortstop and a nice bullpen arm, they have to be out of their minds.
I predict Dye will stay with the White Sox and become a free agent after this season. Ultimately you would think he wants to be traded to try and get a contract extension from another team. Maybe he plays well where he goes, who knows. But for now, he is not worth his seven and a half million-dollar contract and any general manager can see that. This is why I do not see him fitting any contending team. And like Dunn, he is a rent-a-player.
If he is traded, I say he goes to the Cubs above all current frontrunners. Omar Minaya and the Mets should be concentrating on pitching more than offense. The Mariners are not in contention this season and I just don't see Dye re-signing a contract with them. But the Cubs are still in the race with the Brewers and they might take a chance on him. Dye may see it fitting to play for a contender and not have to move out of Chicago.
Octavio Dotel
Octavio Dotel Pos. ERA IP SO BB WHIP RP 3.91 23 29 11 1.52
Look for Dotel to be traded at the last minute as the Royals try and get as much as they can for him. There is a whole list of teams interested in this top arm but the Dodgers have seemed to be the frontrunner since Dotel was put on the trading block. As mentioned before, the Dodgers have plenty of talent in their system. They have already mentioned that Loney and Kemp are not available for a reliever. But other prospects like Chin-Lung Hu, Tony Abreu, or Jonathan Meloan are all available and may move for Dotel.
I predict Ned Colletti and Dayton Moore will come up with something fitting for both parties. But Colletti is going to have to work real hard to get what he wants for the price he wants with so many other teams in the hunt for Dotel.
The preceeded players are likely the most sought out and most reasonable to be moved. Even though I see there being no fit for Adam Dunn and the Reds, these are the players receiving the most buzz. It is a shame to see very little movement or talk before the deadline this year. But hopefully things will heat up in the coming days. Little talk is being generated and time is burning. Let us see how close my predictions come when and if any of these players get dealt.
Predictions recapped:
Teixeira to the Angels for Santana, Kotchman, and Evans.
Dunn stays with the Reds (If not, the Dodgers will get the deal done.)
Dye stays with the White Sox (If not, the Cubs will take the chance)
Dotel to the Dodgers for Abreu and Meloan
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Originally Posted by redsrbetter
