We all know who was a free agent coming into this year, and where they signed. We also now how these players are doing as of now. But so what? What can we expect in the future from these men on which so much is riding? Vinny Castilla is hitting now, but what can we reasonably expect him to do through his contract? Carlos Beltran? Carl Pavano? I will analyze these men, and their reasonable futures in this, an ongoing column.
The key word is reasonable folks, so no, I won't say your team's big signing will be a Hall-of-Famer unless I think he is. Of course, I reserve the right to be wrong and completely change my mind later. On to it:
Nomar Garciaparra
Chicago Cubs
Contract- $8.25 million for 2005
What he has been- His peak, where he spent three years chasing batting titles, ended in 2000. Nomar has been an elite-level shortstop consistently since then. His only health problem until last year was an offseason wrist injury that seemingly slowed his bat, but did not cost him much value. Sometimes you forget that he's been a certain Hall-of-Famer up until 2004.
What he will be- Hurt. With his year over, and combined with last year's injury, Nomar may now be considered injury-prone. At 31 and a free agent after the year, long-term deals will be hard to come by. The Cubs should be glad they only signed him for this year. The permanent effects of his injuries won't be known for awhile, though.
Mitigating circumstances- With a torn groin muscle (a full avulsion, with the muscle completely separated from the bone), Garciaparra will not be back this year. Any talk that he could come back without surgery is just talk. Steroids had nothing to do with it.
David Eckstein
St. Louis Cardinals
Contract- $2.33 million in 2005, $10.25 million net through 2007
What he has been- A slap-hitting second baseman forced to play shortstop. He's never drawn a large number of walks or hit for any power, so his value is tied up heavily in his batting average. This made him an asset in 2001 and 2002, but a liability in 2003 and 2004. Luis Castillo-lite.
What he will be- He isn't getting any faster or younger, and will probably be dead weight when his bat slows at all. Reports on his defense range from awful to surprisingly elite. He pumps his arms and loads his whole body into every throw, so I don't know what to think. I predict a move to second after Grudz is gone in St. Louis. Eckstein doesn't strike out at all, and can't afford to. If he does, he's done.
Mitigating circumstances- At .307/.381/.379, this is honestly the best the Cardinals can hope. Since they played Tony Womack last year, they'll be happy with it. It's hard to imagine this little guy getting on-base for monsters like Rolen, Pujols, Walker, and Edmonds. Seems vaguely insulting to them. On another note, you could replace the face in Eckstein's picture with the faces of half the members of this forum, and I wouldn't be able to tell the difference.
Edgar Renteria
Boston Red Sox
Contract- $8 million in 2005, $40 million net through 2008
What he has been- Good glove, low walks, nice power, good average. Aside from his fluky MVP-caliber .330/.394/.480 2003 season, we've seen the pretty steady progression of a very good shortstop.
What he will be- The decline will likely continue, and with a power loss last year, his batting average will tell the tale. Not yet 30, this is a bad signing by the Red Sox for as long as they did it.
Mitigating circumstances- A .246/.296/.338 is not the way to create confidence. You can add 30 points to this line by the end of the year. That's still not worth it.
Orlando Cabrera
Anaheim Angels
Contract- $6 million in 2005, $32 million net through 2008
What he has been- A defensive star (until his back hurt), Orlando has had a bat that looks like a good Renteria, or a bad Eckstein. His back may have something to do with this, sapping his power. He actually did both last year, sucking out loud with Montreal, then hitting well in Boston.
What he will be- 30 years old, and with a bat showing wildly varying averages, the future doesn't look too bright for Anaheim at short. He should already be working out with Vladimir Guerrero's personal trainer, as Vlad himself has worked very hard to overcome back issues.
Mitigating circumstances- .237/.303/.367 in 139 ABs has shown that David Eckstein never really left.