The Situation At Hand: Griffey's Rise Back To The Top In 2007

[missionhockey21]

The Situation At Hand

"I wouldn't recommend it as a way to learn patience, but when you break your hand, you don't want to be swinging at too many pitches early. It hurt the first three weeks of spring training. Look at how I took batting practice. The first couple of times, I didn't swing at very many balls." -- Ken Griffey Jr., on how his hand injury has helped him.

-- ESPN.com news services

Has a hand injury really caused the resurgence of Griffey? One could argue so. Yet a case could also be made for the move to rightfield giving Griffey a reason to prove the doubters wrong which has been a motivational simulator for him in the past, and adding gasoline to the fire, the doubters have been his own team. By that same token one could argue with the Reds hitting him early on at 4th and 5th in the lineup, out of his customary 3rd being yet another motivator. Afterall, he did hit only 4 doubles and 2 homeruns when batting 4th or 5th combined in 63 AB's but while batting 3rd he has hit 4 doubles and 17 homeruns when batting 3rd in 161 AB's. Or his advancement towards the 600 homerun plateau, his desire to climb up to the place in history he would of already exceeded had it not been for his injuries could be another factor. Then again he might be playing with every ounce of strength to become tradeable once again and earn a plane ticket out of Cincy and last place. No matter how it has happened, Griffey has been a new player this season and by a new player, I mean the old player that fans fell in love with from the exuberant rookie in Seattle, to the more seasoned player who made for a great story for returning home to Cincinnati to play for his father's team. There are many factors to this rebirth as outlined above (plus others), but it all hinges around Griffey being able to wait for his pitch and let his patient pay off to the tune of a .950 OPS this season.

Most know his story though since coming to play for the Reds, injuries and losing seasons are not what storybooks are made of, but when I say Griffey has looked like the player Reds fans were expecting after the trade (with his bat of course) it does appear that this story still has a few more chapters left to be written. I am hoping one of those chapters will be yet another All-Star Game appearance for the man who has received more votes than anyone all-time for the midsummer classic. Yes, I am a Reds fan, but more importantly I am a baseball fan and being one makes it easy to see the value Griffey has brought to the game for his career and why he not only deserves votes for that but because he has earned a starting spot due to his play in yet another comeback season.

Kid, This Could Be Your Big Break

The quote to open this article is monumental in my opinion, because without it, I don't believe we would be discussing one of the biggest offensive threats coming from an NL outfielder. Like I mentioned, Griffey is revitalized in several aspects of his run production capabilities, many of which are stark contrasts to where you would expect him to trend after last season's performance. To analyze his plate discipline to this point, let's compare a few factors: his walks, strikeouts, his walks to strikeout ratio, his groundball to flyball rato, the amount of pitches he averaged per plate appearance, his OPS and his runs created per 27 outs. We will be doing this for a few select years, his rookie season, the 1994 season (yes, it's the strike year but it is also the year in which Griffey was on pace for his career best performance and the single season homerun record), his first year with the Reds in 2000, the 2006 season in which he looked to be declining hard due to age plus past injuries taking a toll and the current 2007 season. Why am is it structured like that? For a few reasons actually, one being that I wanted a season included (his rookie season) in which his power was not yet completely honed and developed yet, a year in his absolute prime (both in age and in results), a year to show Griffey as he was getting older that was align with his two previous years with Seattle but still showing a dominant player, him treading downward and finally his rise back up (to this point in the season). With Griffey returning to where it all started in Seattle this weekend I felt it wouldn't be a bad time to go a bit deeper and look at the complete file on record for him.

Year	BB	SO	BB/SO	G/F	P/PA	OPS	RC/27
1989	44	83	0.53	1.30	3.55	.749	4.99
1994	56	73	0.77	0.81	3.63	1.076	10.25
2000	94	117	0.80	0.69	3.88	.943	7.98
2006	39	78	0.50	1.05	3.69	.802	5.06
2007	39	40	0.98	0.67	3.94	.950	8.39

The selection of years is a bit odd, but I am going somewhere with this and outside of the comparison year for 2007 of 2006, the years happened to be spread out fairly equally. Let's first make it clear that I realize it's not fair to compare Griffey in his prime to Griffey the rookie, or Griffey the skinny 19 year old kid to the full grown man at 37, we're looking for insights from his statistics that in a way tell a story of why this second comeback is memorable.

'89 Griffey, or the rookie version, was still young, essentially fresh out of high school, had quite a bit left to learn, a body to grow into and the results proved this. He had more difficulty utilizing his power as it was still a work in progress, his swing was more prone to hitting the ball on the ground, the plate discipline wasn't the similar to that of an OBP monster and obviously he wasn't an elite player yet. But notice over his career, as his plate discipline improves and he starts to have more ability to drive the ball out of the infield as he matured, his numbers improve with this more capable athletic body with the addition of old player skills, this isn't shocking news to any knowledgeable fan. This is dominant era Griffey, the one that kept up with the infamous single season homerun chase with Big Mac and Sosa long enough that it was considered a three man race for awhile.

He then packs his bags for Cincy in 2000, to much celebration or disgust (depending on your allegiance), has a healthy season that was set with high expectations and he lives up to them for the most part. As a side note, his career was trending towards higher walks and strikeout totals as he became more feared for his swing so the less opposing pitchers wanted to challenge him and the more he would chase a pitch for a bigfly, and again this is expected to a degree. While the 2000 season wasn't quite up to par with his last few years in Seattle, they were very similar in general; his slugging percentage declined from a devastating .646 in 1997 to .611 in 1998 to .576 in 1999 to finally .556 in 2000, this could simply be declining from his peak full season or the degrading of his legs due to the wear and tear of playing on the Kingdome turf in Seattle.

Now let's fast-forward a few years, in 2005 (not listed) where Griffey returns after four injury filled seasons to win NL Comeback Player of the Year with a .945 OPS, giving fantasy owners everywhere who picked him up in the late rounds (or sometimes even worse) sheer delight. Everything seemed to be where you would expect it numbers wise for a guy at his age who had endured what his body had taken. The numbers weren't included for 2005 as on the whole, they are pretty similar to 2007 (sacrifice a bit of OBP for SLG% and there you go) but the real story is his decline in 2006. Griffey has never been Ruth or Bonds-esque with OBP prowess, but he has been someone to achieve .400 OBP+ several times with several 90+ walk seasons so it's not exactly like he is Alfonso Soriano. And as I was illustrating with the above table, he lives and dies by his discipline at the plate like most prolific well rounded hitters.

The above stats show when Griffey is in the zone, mentally, physically, spiritually, economically... whatever, just in the zone. He wants to swing the bat with that pure sweet swing of his when that mentality is turned on. But Griffey at age 37 doesn't have the raw power of Griffey at 27 so the more selective he is, the more success he will find. Griffey would slump in 2006, and many of his homers, both in 2005 and 2006 were not massive power-shots. He was coming off injury in 2004, and as it is commonly known, he is a player that needs to have his legs under him to maximize his swing like most good power hitters. This is why in 2005 for instance he hit 30 doubles in 491 AB's, or the most he had hit since driving 33 balls for two bases in 1998, in which he had about 140 more AB's in that season than in 2005. This isn't discounting his 2005 season as it was a great effort and a true return of a shining star, it just compounds the problem about his 2006 season decline. Outside of the loss of plate discipline, I suspect that after all the rehab (which is tiring) and roaming centerfield for an entire season just wore him out and more importantly wore his legs out. He was visibly frustrated with his play at times on the field and the illnesses his parents suffered surely didn't help. When Griffey would return from injury, he would hit so many to the warning track, it was heart-wrenching to see this sort of "so close, but not quite" type of effort" for any fan of his who so fondly remembered his glory days. But I believe with him being finally far removed from injury to his hamstrings (which is the main culprit in any decline of his in production), in better condition for a relatively long season and playing in a less demanding rightfield, due to all of that he has found his sealegs once again and balls that might of been only worth two bases a couple of years ago are now worth four bases.

For those of you who enjoy the old watch it and comment it approach, last week against the Angels Griffey scorched a pitch a bit above his shoe tops to the deep warning track which I ensure you would not have happened last season. It was Vlad-esque like and not the greatest showing of plate discipline, but impressive nonetheless. If you want numbers, then look no further than his AB/HR stat that improved from 15.9 in 2006 to 12.4 currently in 2007. His doubles are down a bit and while there has been a couple instances in which he could of stretched a single to a double, I have heard many fans comment that they haven't seen him run this good in years. Granted he won't be looking to join the 600-600 club anytime at all, or even the 600-200 club, but his speed if anything has improved since his more present role after coming back in 2005. To put a long story short, re-found plate discipline plus a a physique in better shape is starting to give us vintage Griffey once again.

Griffey's Idea of An April Fools Gag:
One That You Don't Realize Is Even A Joke Until He Hits Moonshots Galore In May

Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
April	59	8	15	5	0	1	9	12	0	5	0	0	.254	.380	.390	.770
May	111	16	34	2	0	10	22	20	0	19	2	0	.306	.403	.595	.998
June	61	15	18	2	0	8	13	7	1	14	0	0	.295	.371	.721	1.092

You might be thinking while the Griffey of 2007 is certainly good, what differs him from the Griffey of 2005? Take my summary of what has led to a vintage Griffey and apply it to May and June. In April, The Kid slugged a palty .390 with only one homerun coming right towards the very end of the month while missing a chunk of games due to diverticulitis. He was coming off of his previously mentioned hand injury and as a result he didn't have the power yet to generate homeruns (which led to over half of his doubles to this point in the season.) But at the same time, he was patient and he managed to contribute in the way of a .380 OBP for the month. He comes back after being off for a few games and his season begins to turn in the right way. While he has started to sacrifice some of his plate discipline for power, that is the risk you take when you have his production at his age. Imagine where Griffey would be had his hand been injured a month earlier and thus his May output might of been his April output (he barely got any spring training game time due to the injury). The past two months have shown why Griffey has been recognized as a legitimate power source for years (regardless of injury even) and why the baseball world shouldn't be pulling down the curtain on him anytime soon. Despite the pedestrian April (yet still influential to his re-found plate discipline), he is on pace for 44 homers, and if his May and June has anything to say about it, that projection could end up being a bit off.

The Near 40 Year Old Kid(s)

Year	Name	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	RC/27**
'66	Mays	35	152	552	99	159	29	4	37	103	70	81	.288	.368	.556	.924	307	7.42
'05	Griffey	35	128	491	85	148	30	0	35	92	54	93	.301	.369	.576	.945	283	7.92
'67	Mays	36	141	486	83	128	22	2	22	70	51	92	.263	.334	.456	.783	220	5.32
'06	Griffey	36	109	428	62	108	19	0	27	72	39	78	.252	.316	.486	.802	208	5.06
'68	Mays	37	148	498	84	144	20	5	23	79	67	81	.289	.372	.488	.860	243	6.48
*'07	Griffey	37	66	231	39	67	9	0	19	44	39	40	.285	.384	.566	.950	133	8.39

(* Denotes current, incomplete season.)
(** RC/27 was found from a different source, so there might be slight inconsistency.)

I wanted to find a good reference point to Griffey and given his jaw-dropping catches, dives, leaps and amazement in the outfield that earned him 10 Gold Gloves during the nineties I happened to have found a pretty good comparison point for The Kid with The Say Hey Kid (Willie Mays). Not only are they both outfielders, both have been recoginized for elite defensive talents, power, and they also share the same essential age of entering into the MLB (which means at 35,36,37 both have experienced a lot of wear and tear, although for different reasons.)

Let me preface this before we discuss it, Willie Mays consistently played in 150 games plus and actually experienced his most prolific stretch of homerun hitting in his early thirties, so this isn't a comparison between the two regarding their careers or the years prior or after (and Mays actually had a better season at age 39) but rather it's looking at it from more an age perspective and the similarities these two legends share in their numbers at their age. Really, some of the similarities are pretty astounding, and quite a nice comparison point given Mays being listed as the top centerfielder of all time as an old player (33 or older is the age Bill James used I believe in his historical abstract.) At age 35, Mays played a bit more than Griffey, slugged a bit less, had a better eye at the plate and hit for less of an average. At age 36, both players are taking less walks for their strikeout totals, both of their slugging percentages decrease by nearly the same amount from the previous season (.09 for Griff, .10 for Mays), and both are making less contact for basehits, with Griffey taking the biggest dive in the BA department of nearly .50 points. Both players make a comeback at age 37, with Griffey making the more impressive showing, at least so far. Mays and Griffey both experience resurgence with their OBP after seeing it drop so low, walking more and striking out less. Their batting averages also make the climb uphill. And while Mays was on the end of his power (again, he did have quite a season for a 39 year old not named Bonds a couple of years later), but that is the key difference between both at age 37. And if what I am claiming here is actually the case, that Griffey having his legs back combined with more selectiveness at the plate should put a good deal of difference between both the Say Hey Kid's output and his output a this age. Let's just hope for the baseball world that Griffey won't regress back at age 38 like Mays did.

Are You Convinced Yet?

With less than 10 days to vote, do the baseball world a favor and vote Griffey in. The game needs all the ambassadors it can get and given the media driving the feelings against certain players and then some other talented players running their mouth a bit too much or letting their cash desires speak more about themselves than their actions as a man and a player... the baseball world needs Griffey. I am 21 years old and Griffey was influential to myself and my friends, we wanted to imitate his swings, his leaping catches against the outfield wall, and today's youth should have the ability to see Griffey on a grand stage. Griffey, classy like always, came out and said he won't be demanding a trade despite the Reds scouting for the number one overall draft pick for the 2008 draft already. Whether his true feelings differ or not, who knows, but with him currently at 582 homeruns the Reds may very well keep him on as a fan draw. However, this isn't about his team situation or trade possibilities, so let's not even get into it, this is about recognizing the talents of a future Hall of Famer and wanting the opportunity to share him with new and old baseball fans alike because he might not ever get that elusive ring. Griffey looks fairly certain to make the game as the second outfielder as the latest polling results revealed him to have about 1,170,000 votes, second to the Mets' Carlos Beltran of about 1,344,000 votes and above the Cubs' Alfonso Soriano of about 1,014,000 votes. And unlike Beltran with his .784 OPS, or Soriano with his .867 OPS, Griffey actually has the statistics to warrant his considerations for top three. So unlike some years in which Griffey has gotten votes for being Griffey (similar to Beltran getting votes for being Beltran and Mets fans being entirely bias), he deserves it this year. The smile, the swing, the swagger, even the bat speed has improved again, it's all still there and it is a delight to experience. Vote for him and enjoy having fans from all over be able to experience Griffey at about as good as you can expect for a player of his age who has taken the hits his body has, it really is something else to see and hopefully millions will have a chance to see a Griffey that reminded them what made him so great once upon a time.... sometimes it just takes one alteration to change a person's season and perhaps for Griffey in 2007 it has an injury to his hand that quickly demolished all low expectations many had for him this season.

Oh and Matt Holliday being 7th in NL voting is simply a crime.

[realmofotalk]

Like I'm gonna waste my vote on Matt Holliday. Blame the Denver fans for not voting often enough.

I'll agree to let Junior in, although isn't he most likely the Reds representive even if he doesn't get voted in?


submitted to Digg

[browntown653]

Awesome article...just one thing. You probably said it here, and I probably just read over it, but I think moving to RF has a lot to do with his comeback, protecting his legs and such - and lest we forget he got hurt a few times playing CF.

+rep, digg

[bwitty24]

Nice article mission, it was a good read. It is unfortunate that Griffey was injured so much as he could have been the greatest player of my lifetime if he stayed healthy.

[redsrbetter]

The Situation at Hand:

I never saw that quote and never thought of it that way. I didn't know his hand was bothering him to that extint. Great research on your part mission. I can now give a reason to his newfound glory in the OBP department.

The walks he has taken and the HR clip he is at are definitely marks of a great season. Lets just hope it continues. Which I believe it will.

Kid, This Could Be Your Big Break:

I love seeing Griffey's stats from his rookie season. I don't know why because they are not awe striking. But simply because he was such a great athelete at the time and he had a whole career ahead of him. Makes you wonder who is out there that could be the next Griffey.

I think the move to Rf was definitely a wise decision. 2 years or more in the making, but it was the right move. I often wonder whether he realizes it or not. He doesn't seem exhausted and his production at the plate describes that to the utmost.

April Fools:

Lets hope the 44 HR projection is off and that he can get even more. He is on a really nice pace right now. I think his power numbers were down along with everything else because of his hand. Look at the doubles in April compared to May. You explained that yourself, but I hate to restate it. It was definitely his hand recooperating. Now we can figure it is well and he is showing signs of greatness again.

40 Year Old Kid(s):

Mays vs Griffey? Just had to pose the question didn't you. The two greatest CF of all time in my opinion. I see similar track records. Hopefully Griffey can keep it going and not experience the decline until at least 40. I sure hope he has a new found life in baseball again. 700, here we come!

Convinced?:

Absolutely. I agree with mofo here as well. Griffey would be the take from Cincy even if not voted. But I think he should definitely be a front runner for the NL. No doubt in my mind. And the Holliday reference, wow. The dude leads the NL in BA. Disgusting.

Great read once again mission. Hopefully this is the beginning to another chapter in Griffey's career.

+rep, DIGG, delicious, YB, FB

[missionhockey21]

Like I'm gonna waste my vote on Matt Holliday. Blame the Denver fans for not voting often enough.

I'll agree to let Junior in, although isn't he most likely the Reds representive even if he doesn't get voted in?


submitted to Digg

I know how you feel about Holliday, or really any player in that situation as the home fans have to lead the charge if a player is that strong. And while it's about guaranteed he will make it in some fashion, it would be nice to see him in the starting lineup which leads me to my next point... yeah, I couldn't see Griffey not making it, but seeing him start in a Reds uniform would be something special since it's been awhile.

And many thanks for submitting this onward and for everyone else who did as well, it really is appreciated guys.

[missionhockey21]

The Situation at Hand:

I never saw that quote and never thought of it that way. I didn't know his hand was bothering him to that extint. Great research on your part mission. I can now give a reason to his newfound glory in the OBP department.

The walks he has taken and the HR clip he is at are definitely marks of a great season. Lets just hope it continues. Which I believe it will.

The quote was just something I found to be fascinating, because like I mentioned in this article and last season, Griffey was not himself in 2006. We so often saw him chasing the first pitch, sometimes in the dirt or way outside of the strikezone and then he would go to the complete opposite of just taking pitches for the sake of taking them.... Griffey, when he is hot, he takes the pitch he can hit and that's been the story this year.

Kid, This Could Be Your Big Break:

I love seeing Griffey's stats from his rookie season. I don't know why because they are not awe striking. But simply because he was such a great athelete at the time and he had a whole career ahead of him. Makes you wonder who is out there that could be the next Griffey.

I think the move to Rf was definitely a wise decision. 2 years or more in the making, but it was the right move. I often wonder whether he realizes it or not. He doesn't seem exhausted and his production at the plate describes that to the utmost.

It is kind of odd to see a line like that, from such a known power hitter, but then again The Kid truly was still a kid at this point. I wonder how the Seattle fanbase felt about him after the season, he had hype galore and did well enough (great for a 19 year old of course), but similar to the early critcism of some to Homer Bailey, I wonder how many felt that way about Jr. (being overhyped for not destroying every single season MLB record in year one.) But to be honest, I can't recall 1989 Griffey, more like 1991 or 1992, ha.

The move should of have happened in 2006, at the very least. He showed glimpses of competency in 2005 to a degree, but they were just glimpses. His range in 2006 was just atrocious, despite still having much better reads on balls than any other outfielder outside of Kearns last season, he just didn't have the ability to get there. You would think he would realize this being a positive move for his career, but I think he's too proud of his former ability in centerfield to admit otherwise.

April Fools:

Lets hope the 44 HR projection is off and that he can get even more. He is on a really nice pace right now. I think his power numbers were down along with everything else because of his hand. Look at the doubles in April compared to May. You explained that yourself, but I hate to restate it. It was definitely his hand recooperating. Now we can figure it is well and he is showing signs of greatness again.

I am pretty sure I mentioned this, but it would of been interesting to see that injury occur a month early and allow for his hand to be at it's May stage in the fictional situational world of April. Those numbers would have the whole baseball world talking.

40 Year Old Kid(s):

Mays vs Griffey? Just had to pose the question didn't you. The two greatest CF of all time in my opinion. I see similar track records. Hopefully Griffey can keep it going and not experience the decline until at least 40. I sure hope he has a new found life in baseball again. 700, here we come!

I believe Bill James listed Mays as the greatest "old" centerfielder, meaning his production at 33 and later I believe. And of course Mays had some flatout dominant years in that 33-35 range (and in his early 30's too as we all know) which differs him from Griffey, but seeing the season he managed at 39, in what was a pitching era, it does give Griffey hope.

Convinced?:

Absolutely. I agree with mofo here as well. Griffey would be the take from Cincy even if not voted. But I think he should definitely be a front runner for the NL. No doubt in my mind. And the Holliday reference, wow. The dude leads the NL in BA. Disgusting.

Great read once again mission. Hopefully this is the beginning to another chapter in Griffey's career.

+rep, DIGG, delicious, YB, FB

Thanks for the comments and the submissions bro.

[missionhockey21]

To show you how big Griffey still is in Seattle, they booed their own pitcher for throwing over twice with Brandon Phillips at first before pitching to Griffey and cheered Griffey for his basehit... against their team. Granted, it wasn't the entire stadium, but I would guess around half we're cheering and the rest was silent. Amazing.

[redsrbetter]

Man reading that gives me the chills and still worries me a bit. I would hate for Junior to get too much love and feel like he needs to go back to Seattle. I hate to ruin the incredible awe that is going on, but Griffey to the Mariners reeps a good story but really nothing good in return for the Reds.

[Providence A's]

I used to love the original SNES Ken Griffey, Jr. Game. It's very easy to root for him. He's a very likable player. I wish he hadn't been hurt so much the last few years because he would have probably had a great shot to beat Bonds once he passes Aaron...now we'll have to wait for A-Rod...good job Mission.

[missionhockey21]

Man reading that gives me the chills and still worries me a bit. I would hate for Junior to get too much love and feel like he needs to go back to Seattle. I hate to ruin the incredible awe that is going on, but Griffey to the Mariners reeps a good story but really nothing good in return for the Reds.

Mariners fans would love it on the whole... but I wouldn't be too concerned about it. Rumors about Griffey seem to be more speculation than anything or just pure fan desire stemming from blog idiocy. I mean the man did start his career there while growing into the star we all got to know, he's been given praise for saving the Mariners and he met his wife there.... the ceremony was extremely touching and you could tell he was a bit emotional and extremely appreciative, but even without it, Seattle will always hold a special place in his heart. And if he ever left Cincy, that would be about the only team I could stand it happening with.

[missionhockey21]

I used to love the original SNES Ken Griffey, Jr. Game. It's very easy to root for him. He's a very likable player. I wish he hadn't been hurt so much the last few years because he would have probably had a great shot to beat Bonds once he passes Aaron...now we'll have to wait for A-Rod...good job Mission.

It's a shame that he won't reach the levels we all would have anticipated him reaching if it weren't for the injury, but I believe in the end he will still surprise many of where he ends up versus the perception a few years ago.

Thanks for the thoughts Prov.

[Porter]

From an actual M's fans perspective here:

Ken Griffey Jr was so loved by this town that for the week leading up to last night. All you could hear on KJR was memories of Griffey. He was the best player Ive ever seen in person. All day yesterday, it was all about Griffey and how he meant so much to this franchise and this town. We would take him back by trade in a heartbeat. I always understood the fact he wanted to go home. Sure I hated it at first because, it would be like John Smoltz if he magically left Atlanta. I haven't seen that many people on the house that Junior mostly built since the place opened. People really stayed just to see him because the Reds kicked our asses all over the building. Fierabend shouldnt have started this game and we should have went with Washburn. The atmosphere was too great for the young rookie.