A Rocket on the Horizon: Will He Blast Off To The Promised Land?

[Fishercat]

Last Sunday, the Yankees and Mariners were playing a Sunday matinee. The Yankees fans had to be relatively happy around the 7th inning stretch. The Yankees were ahead of the M’s by three runs, with Darrell Rasner pitching shutout ball through five and two-thirds with Proctor and Henn picking up the last one and a third. The Yankees looked primed to take their second game of this four-day affair and hopefully get within a game of .500. Basically, life was good for one day in Yankee Stadium.

Then, PA Announcer Bob Sheppard asked the Yankee faithful to look to the owner’s booth.

The Yankees fans saw something that meant more than anything that could happen on the field. The result caused the Yankee dugout to produce one, collective, unadulterated grin. It resulted in a cringe from fans of MLB teams around the nation (and in Toronto). Particularly, Boston Red Sox fans were reminded of some pretty horrid memories and Houston fans had to be a little surprised by the sight. It even resulted in the first orgasm produced in a Yankees announcer booth that wasn’t from Michael Kay (thanks for that disgustingly homer-tastic announcement Mr…Ms. Waldman). As all the eyes panned up to the owner’s booth and the jumbotron, they saw what some consider to be the Yankees’ saving grace

Roger Clemens is back in black (okay, navy blue, it sounds better in black).

The signing was a bit of a surprise to some fans, as Clemens had stated he wanted to win a title, but is going to the team in the worst current state of his three potential teams in those terms. The Astros are a half game worse right now, but they are in a division where the Brewers have to cool down and one that has no one definitively better. The Red Sox are leading the Yankees by six games early on. Sure, the Yankees have been unlucky, but even fully healthy, it’s a tough battle between the AL East rivals.

So some people were surprised…until the details of his contract came out: a “minor league deal” with a pro-rated salary of 28 million dollars a year, or 4.5 million a month. No logical person turns that down. And the Yankees were smart to seal the deal. On a roster worth nearly 200 million dollars, what’s another 16 million or so when he plays (more with the luxury tax)? And when that roster is forcing Chase Wright and Jeff Karstens into starts, the need for a legitimate SP is even greater. However, is he really the cow bell for the Yankees’ fever?

The Yankees have two notable problems that can be solved by starting pitching. First is the obvious one: performance. The Yankees starting pitchers have an ERA just under five runs this season (as of 5/9). That is not a horrid number, but very few teams can win consistently with SPs giving up five earned runs every nine innings. Last year, no teams with a worse ERA by starters than 4.9 made the playoffs, with the closest being St. Louis with a 4.79 ERA. Philadelphia got close, but they also had the eighth best bullpen in baseball with a 3.79 ERA. The Yankees are almost a half-run above that.

So basically, the Yankees know they have to improve from their 4.9 SP ERA to even make the playoffs, especially if any major offensive player gets injured. Clemens will certainly help with that. But another problem is the abuse their relief pitchers have taken so far. The Yankees have used seven of their bullpen members in 12 games or more, with three of them being in 17 games or more for a total of 120 innings. As a point of comparison, the Red Sox have used four pitchers in twelve games or more, with Hideki Okajima appearing in 15 games. As a bullpen, the Yankees have pitched 40 more innings than the Red Sox. The Yankees are second in baseball in terms of how many innings their RPs have pitched, only behind Florida. That typically is an indicator of poor starting pitching, but it does not bode well for the Yankees, as the abuse of Quantrill and Gordon led to some problems later in the season for usually reliable relief pitchers.

Much of the problem will be solved in time as their starting pitchers return. Wang seems to be able to hold down the fort as a good #2 SP, if not an ace. Mussina is aging like Dick Clark before the stroke, Hughes looks extremely good, and Pettitte is usually reliable for a competitive effort every fifth game. The fifth starter is a bit of a problem, but that’s a problem for almost every team and the bullpen expects to throw some innings on that day. All four of these SPs can go for six to seven innings on a regular basis, and even go for a complete game if they are on a roll. They are good enough to bridge a performance gap and to rest the pen.

With that said, how much of a problem will Roger Clemens really solve?

Let’s look at the performance level first and assume that Clemens replaces the fifth starting pitcher (a bunch of middling minor leaguers, Carl “Dr. Andrews’ Vacation” Pavano, and Single Kei Igawa). That group has been motley this year and there was little reason to expect improvement. Here are their vital stats.

86 innings pitched in 16 games (5 and 3/8 innings per game, so about 16 outs per)
About a 5.54 ERA on my calculations (53*9/86) (53 earned runs allowed)

In comparison, here are Clemens’ vital stats from the last three years

6.41 innings per game
2.40 ERA

The innings were a bit worse and the ERA was a bit better if you just consider 2006, but he was in the NL where SPs are more prone to being taken out and his ERA was in half a season, so you figure it would rise.

That basically shows that the Yankees, if his NL stats hold up, will get an extra inning a game along with 2 less runs or so per game (since they pitch about two-thirds of the game). For the sake of argument though, let’s assume that the AL East (with five of the top eight offensive teams in the AL and with all their teams in the Top 16 overall) will be a tougher hitting division than the NL Central. Additionally, let’s assume that Roger will be allowed to go a bit longer than he did in the NL. So, how about an even 3 ERA and 6 and 2/3 innings per game, just as a guessing estimate, about 20 outs per game.

That most certainly solves a major production problem. The Yankees are improving by about .6 ERA points per rotation cycle by turning their rotating 5th SP into Roger Clemens. That is a pretty huge difference at about 2-3 runs per game, especially considering the Yankees have been involved in eleven losses decided by one or two runs. When you consider that six of those games were started by Rasner, Igawa, Karstens, Wright, or Desalvo, and that the Yankees could have expected a better job by Clemens in four of them, the replacement by Clemens looks like it would have given the Yankees a better chance in a few of those games (although considering the start by Karstens and Wright were next to each other, only one of those games). If you extrapolate that over a season’s length, that could mean four or five more wins for the Yankees by SP performance, a distance that is similar to the one between the Yankees and Red Sox every so often.

However, where Clemens solves one problem, he fails to truly solve the other one. By the guesstimated stats, Clemens would produce four more outs per game than the 5th SP rotation. If he starts 20 games (unlikely, but possible), that’s a total of 80 outs, which is about 27 innings. That seems like a notable amount, but his biggest benefit may hurt the bullpen in this situation. Clemens is far more likely to keep the Yankees in a game than Igawa was. That means that if the Yankees are leading 4-2 when he takes out Clemens after seven, he is more likely to put a set-up relief pitcher in the game. Granted, the poor performance by the rotation of #5 starters didn’t stop Proctor from coming in, but I would guess Torre is even more likely to go to his trusted men if the Yankees are within a run or two of the opposing team. And while it means about 27 less innings, it could mean even more innings for a Proctor, Farnsworth, Bruney, or Vizcaino and less for a Henn or Bean. And that could bite them later in the year if a fatigued Brian Bruney or Mike Myers simply can’t get that fastball by Grady Sizemore in the ALDS, if either team makes it.

All in all, Clemens is a great signing for all parties involved. Clemens is getting around 18 million dollars and he doesn’t even have to travel if he doesn’t pitch. The Yankees get a legitimate ace caliber SP who can put any team away for 7 innings, even if he didn’t have to prove it last year, facing only four top-ten offenses (Philly twice, Atlanta, and Los Angeles if I remember correctly). The fans don’t have to suffer through the one Japanese import this year who is devoid of value so far and is now the ace of Tampa, New York’s single A affiliate. Still, even 18 million dollars may not solve the Yankees woes, and that’s not even talking about starting Doug Mientkiewicz at first base. Seriously?

[browntown653]

Nice job there Fish. I don't think there's any chance Clemens's numbers get better, just historically looking at the switches of pitchers from the NL to the AL, and vice versa. I'm a little concerned about how he'll do at age 44, but the fact that he's continued to dominate the past few years and the fact that it's him or god knows who else is enough to make me happy as a Yankee fan.

digg, +rep

[redsrbetter]

You have to be happy he is with you guys brownie.

Nice article once again Fisher. I give you credit for finding good things in your most hated franchise in sports. (Being a BoSox fan)

But you did an awesome job illustrating how Clemens could hurt the Yankees as well. It is a distant way of looking at it, but you have a point. I guess the good just far outweighs the bad in this situation. But it is smart to point that out anyhow.

+rep, DIGG, delicious, YB

[Fishercat]

I appreciate the positive comments guys.

[Molina00]

Very nice article Fish.

Considering the current state of the Yankee pitching staff there is no doubt he will help them, but I don't know that it will be enough. He put up some solid numbers in his first stint in New York, but still pitched much better in Houston than he ever did for the Yankees. Still, with all that money laying around what did the Yankees have to lose by signing him?

You've been dugg.

[realmofotalk]

Nice statistical analysis about the Yankees' current rotation. And you didn't digress about your Red Sox.

+rep, DIGG

[Providence A's]

good job...I really hope Clemens falls flat on his face though. I'm so sick of him supposedly retiring every year since 2003. It remains to be seen if he'll be the savior for the Yanks. He will probably only be able to go 6 innings max. They're going to have to rely on the bullpen heavily when he's in there.

[missionhockey21]

First off, fantastic article Fisher... possibly your best one yet. We've all had a long time to get to know the Rocket, even us younger guys who hadn't even learned our multiplication tables when a young Rocket first entered his prime (a prime that has lasted a very long time), seeing the financial aspect of the deal shouldn't surprise any. But I must say, whenever we hear Rocket rumors (they are seasonal now) I always hope to hear that Clemens said to hell with the money and went with the team he truly wanted to be with. I don't blame him for taking the money, most would, but I guess in light of other players who defer salary for their teams to make moves or take smaller deals and avoid FA for the better of the team, I was just hoping a guy who has more money than he knows what to do with would of made a really iconic type of move that we all would be left to remember him not as a player, but as a man. Going to the Yankees is a fine move, and talent wise it's hard to argue as a pitcher wanting bats behind him to assist (we all remember his run support statistic with Houston), but it would of been something to see Clemens signing a million dollar deal and pitching simply for love of the game. Of course that's not him though and no reasonable part of my mind believed that something as out of character like that would happen, it still would of been cool though.

As you mentioned, the Yankees have their problems, with or without Roger. Health has obviously been a huge problem with the 2007 Yankees rotation, and when they are healthy, they look quite a lot better but this lack of depth has to be alarming both to the common fan and the front office, they obviously need to bolster their AAA (nothing new) or at least acquire an arm or two for the pen that's capable and can spot start in case of injury. I think your estimation of Clemens production is pretty fair... I could see an ERA up to 3.50, innings down to 6.0 at the worst, he after all will be 45 in a few months, then again he's physically a freak of nature with that workout regiment. But even then Clemens at his "worst" is so much better than Yankee minor leaguers not ready for the show and Carl Pavano in general on any day of the week; also, the numbers that have been produced from that spot this year would likely rise a bit by the end of the season since the Yankees have already showed most of their hidden cards with the pitchers they've rotated into the rotation up to this point (some of which, like Chase Wright, probably had very limited scouting reports.) There will also be a mental effect in play, teams coming to play the Yankees with Desalvo, Wright, Igawa, etc listed as projected starters are likely going to go into it feeling pretty good unless they have to face Wang. Putting Clemens into any series, on name and reputation alone, will get into the opposing teams heads a bit more and will also obviously do wonders in boosting the confidence levels of the Yankees themselves as they have to feel like they have a legitimate chance with Clemens going every five days. But that's just it, Clemens can only go every five days, he will help a good deal but if anything will be the Yankees savior it's good health in my opinion.

Great stuff buddy.