The Long-Term Look: 2004's Free Agent Third Basemen

[Saber]

We all know who was a free agent coming into this year, and where they signed. We also now how these players are doing as of now. But so what? What can we expect in the future from these men from which so much is expected? Vinny Castilla is hitting now, but what can we reasonably expect him to do through his contract? Carlos Beltran? Carl Pavano I will analyze these men, and their reasonable futures in this, a column I hope to analyze signings position by position.

The key word is reasonable folks, so no, I won't say your team's big signing will be a Hall-of-Famer unless I think he is. Of course, I reserve the right to be wrong and completely change my mind later. On to it:

Vinny Castilla

Washington Nationals
Contract-2 years, 6.2 million net
What he is- Castilla is a low-walk slugger anyway you look at him. Although he hit .232 in 2002, he seemingly bounced back with averages of .277 and .271 in the past two years. Of course, I don't have to note his gigantic splits last year, but I will, 'cause I'm like that.
2004, Home- .321/.379/.575
2004, Road- .218/.281/.493
What he will be- At 37 years old and out of Colorado, any player with Castilla's profile looks bad going forward. That he's a slugger who can't get on base, and with a clearly slowing bat, Vinny was a bad idea from the start. The best the Nats can hope is a fluky good average year, because that's the only way he'll ever be valuable. I don't see a big difference otherwise between him and Tony Batista.
Mitigating circumstances- Starting with a hot 88 ABs as of this writing, Vinny seem to having the kind of start that could make you look at his end-of-the-year line, and think everything went well. Don't buy it. His month-to-month splits will look brutal, I guarantee.

Adrian Beltre

Seattle Mariners
Contract-5 years, 65 million net
What he is- Finally having the huge breakout so many have been waiting for, Beltre had an MVP-caliber 2004 (.334/.388/.629). His walk rate didn't change, but his average and power made huge spikes. Some think that this was the culmination of a huge talent hitting his peak while finally healing from botched surgery years ago. I think this was a career year with a fluky good average boost.
What he will be- 26 years old, the Mariners have Beltre signed through his peak ad then some. He'll keep his power, and some of that average, but you'll never see 2004 again. Expect an excellent third baseman going forward, if not quite the next Mike Schmidt.
Mitigating circumstances- His bat has fallen off the earth so far, and he hasn't quite shown his power. Better hope it turns around, since we've seen this from Adrian before, and not in a good way.

Troy Glaus

Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract- 4 years, 45 million net
What he is-Glaus, even with his injury history, has been very consistent, since his fluky great 2000, hitting around .250 with a .350 OBP every year since. His power has varied, depending on the nature of his injury, swinging his SLG from .450 to .550.
What he will be- At age 28, we can't really expect Glaus to improve. Through his contract, we can expect something around the .250/.350/.450-.550 player we've seen in the past, although age may bring his power into the higher end of that range. The real key here is his health. His last full season was 2002, and his latest injury to his shoulder may force him to first base. He loses a lot of his value across the diamond.
Mitigating circumstances- Already more than halfway to last season's AB total, Glaus is hitting at about the high end of what you could expect over a season, and doing it at third base. There's still a long way to go, but what you see of Troy is what you get.

Joe Randa

Cincinnati Reds
Contract- 1 year, 2.15 million
What he is- For the last few years, Randa has been very consistent, playing at a solid level, around .285/.345/.425. That's not great, or even very good, but it's the kind of performance half the team's in baseball would be happy with from year to year.
What he will be- At age 35, he's aged a lot better than anyone would have thought, and is a good stopgap solution for the Reds. This is the kind of smart deal I like to see, where a team recognizes that a player is not a long-term solution, and signs him just long enough for their star prospect to develop (in the Reds' case, Edwin Encarnacion). Yeah, he's overpaid a bit, but at least the Reds will be happier than the team that signs him in 2006 for multiple years.
Mitigating circumstances- Playing at about the level we expect so far (with a few more walks than expected), Randa is grooving along. He really only has to keep this up for a few more months, then gracefully step aside for Encarnacion. If the Reds actually give him another contract, than I've lost all faith in man. Thinking about it, he makes great trade bait at the deadline.

[Saber]

Aaron Boone (Yes, I'm counting him in, since we all know he was signed expressly to play in 2005)

Cleveland Indians
Contract-1 year, 3 million
What he is-He's Bob's son and Bret's brother. Anyway, he was never a star, but was usually an average bat with a great glove. Injuries have derailed his career, but it wasn't reasonable to expect significantly more than he's given.
What he will be- At 31, he's David Bell without the batting average. And with a lot of injuries. Solid guys like him usually just fall off a cliff.
Mitigating circumstances- He's sucking it up in 2005, and hopefully this is just the result of a lot of downtime instead of the bottoming out of his ability.


Jose Valentin

Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract- 1 year, 3.5 million
What he is- An underrated shortstop with surprising power and good range despite being a booter, Valentin has clearly declined the past few years. While still having his power, his bat is blatantly slowing down, with Jose losing big chunks of average and seeing big increases in his strikeouts.
What he will be- After hitting .216 last season, he's on the brink. He cannot lose more bat speed and be a major league player. Rob Deer without the walks isn't underrated, he just sucks.
Mitigating circumstances- With a .194/.364/.358 start in only about 70 ABs, Valentin looks done. While it may be just a sample size issue, the loss in average and power, with a spike in walks indicating that he has to wait because he can't turn around on pitches anymore, looks like the end of the road. Joe Randa looks better everyday.

Alex S. Gonzalez

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Contract- 1 year, 1.175 million
What he is- A crappy shortstop. He's never hit, showing only some power because he swings for the fences constantly, as evidenced by his big strikeout rate.
What he will be- An even crappier third baseman. At 32, he'll suck and collect over a million for the trouble.
Mitigating circumstances- Hitting .250/.305./355, this is probably the best you can expect. How sad. Joe Randa should be getting 7 or 8 million a year compared to these corpses.

Corey Koskie

Toronto Blue Jays
Contract-3 years, 17 million net
What he is- Not many know it, but Koskie had consistently been one of the game's top third baseman for several years. At 32, he's slowing down a bit, losing average last year when he batted .251/.342/.495. The down year cost him a lot of money in free agency.
What he will be- I expect him to bounce back in average, although not to the level he was at in the early 2000s. But, at his age, he only really figures to decline, and that third year might not be pretty at all.
Mitigating circumstances- At .261/.333./.450, he's still showing that he has his basic skills, and if the average picks up, his year will be in line with with his career. Didn't I tell you Joe Randa would look good after all this? The Joker is easily the bargain third baseman of this year.

[ghettochild]

good read

[Steak]

Great article, Saber.

I hope Beltre can start adapting to the AL real soon.

[A's Baby Girl]

Good article and analysis

[missionhockey21]

I really don't know what's up with Beltre. He's always had so much potential and it never seemed to click.... untill last year, the contract year. I really hope he turns it on soon because the Mariner's need him to produce like the young powerhouse they believed they were getting. I guess this goes to show you should never trust one good season out of a bunch of medicore ones (though to be fair I do recall him heating up in 2003 towards the end.)

As for the others, Glaus I think will level off a bit, but health is the main concern as you mentioned. If he can keep his health, he will contribute. Aaron Boone is a guy I liked a lot as a Reds player. Not so much because of skill or production, just because of the heart he played with on the playing field. That being said, there are some significant holes in his game (swinging at pitches that Shaq might not be able to reach is one of them.) He will bounce back I imagine, I mean he is a decent player. But I think his 2003 season with the Reds was a facade, a career year and you can't expect those numbers from him with the injuries, timeoff, and aging.

This leads me to Randa... boy what a surprise. I expected him to perform with a solid bat and glove but the surprise comes from his increased plate discipline. Last season his K/BB ratio actually increased from the year before and I was concerned the same thing would happen in Cincy. But so far he has been very patent at the plate and he has made some tremendous plays at 3B (with Brandon Larson among others at 3B these past few years, I really appreaciate a solid glove down there.) For the role that is needed of him as a stopgap, I'll gladly take that .878 OPS til Ed E is ready to be our 3B.

Great read Saber! Thanks.

[777rak]

yea what ABG said, nice articles and good read. Very easy to understand

[love_that_reefer]

Good job but I disagree on a few points. To say the Vinny Castilla deal was a bust is one of them. Getting a guy who can knock in 100 runs for only 3.1 mil/yr is a great thing. Comparing him to Batista is ridiculous. Castilla's defense far exceeds Batista's as does his offensive production. Also you said that at 28, people can't get better. Defense was not even brought up on any of the players. Overall is was a good article.

[redsrbetter]

Very nicely done Saber! I like how you broke it down for all the 3B on a new team.

I have no clue what is going on with Beltre either. Did the Mariners make a mistake? They certainly are not getting what they signed him for, either in the money category or the talent category as well. I hope that he does pick it up and gets it going soon.

Glaus has always been a personal favorite at 3B for me. I think the Diamondbacks will be pleased with their signing as he continues to hit hard all year long. I think he has been somewhat underrated on a talented Angels team in the past. But now he may finally stick out. I hope he continues to succeed.

Boone is another one that I believe that could be a good signing for the Indians. He was a good Reds 3B, and a good Yankke as well. But he must still be plagued by his knee injury along with other things. Hopefully we see the return of Aaron soone than later.

Randa was the best signing for the Reds this off season IMO. Interesting to see you feel that he may be gone by the trade deadline. I am not sure if the organization would want Edwin Encarnacion up so soon. Unless, of course, he makes it impossible to ignore. But Randa is a wonderful stopgap as mentioned and I am proud to see him playing solid baseball for the Reds.

Awesome read Saber!

[Fishercat]

OMG Depodesta es teh idiot for not re-sgning teh Beltray!!!111

Very good article, for my on-topic comment.

[Saber]

I think Beltre will be a top third baseman through most of his deal, but it really is just foolish to expect him to keep hitting .330.

[Saber]

As for reefer, RBI is the product of the men in front of you getting on base. Even a bad player can get a good number of RBI if he's batting third or has good players in front of him. Why do great leadoff men have weak career RBI numbers? Because they can't hit in the clutch?

Individual defense is very hard to measure accurately, and the difference between all the players I wrote about likely doesn't add up to much more than 10 runs over the course of a season, or one win.

[love_that_reefer]

Castilla is not a leadoff man. Castilla is in a spot in the lineup to produce. If he didn't produce then you might have a point. As for the whole 10 runs or one win is just ridiculous. I can't believe how many people in this forum just shit on defense. Its all about offense. Silly.

[griffeyfan3]

yes great article...now ive read this i am starting to agree with you on randa..he would make great trade bait by the deadline

[McKain]

It's not even that people are "shitting on defense" or anything; defense is the hardest attribute that can be measured in any sport.

No statistic is going to accurately measure defense, especially in baseball. Any defender on the baseball field is going to have his play affected by at least one guy, whether the other guy be playing shortstop to his third baseman or shortstop to his second baseman, or even pitcher to his catcher.

3Bs and SSs are going to infringe upon each other's field of play because both will be trying to make plays for those borderline balls. Similarly, both will be positively (or negatively) affected by the defensive ability of that person next to them. If you have a poor shortstop, with little range, but his third baseman/second baseman both have excellent range and great arms and can get to all those balls he can't, then clearly that player is going to look better because of the defenders surrounding him.

There is no real way to isolate the work of a defender from the team's defense, because the majority of the time, that player is not working on his own to get to the ball, to get it where it needs to go, and to get the batters out. He has help; a catcher is going to have many more passed balls when he is handling bad pitchers. A catcher with great pitchers is not going to have as many passed balls. It is impossible to judge which is the better catcher, because of outside factors.

I try not to ignore defense in player arguments, and I am sure many of the other intelligent people on these boards do the same, but it is simply impossible to get an accurate grasp of the defensive ability of any player in the MLB today, so oftentimes, it is easier to disregard it than to use faulty measures (read: fielding percentage, zone rating, range factor, etc.) to inaccurately judge.