It's Miller Time In Kansas City... Or Maybe Not

[missionhockey21]

In studying for my exams two weeks ago, often time my mind would drift in the late hours to places outside the world of education. And as I noticed that it was indeed May 1st, other than thinking about what crazy shocker we’ll see on Lost during sweeps week or how Jack Bauer is unquestionably the man, I realized one of my favorite events is coming up. That is of course the June Amateur Draft. As a Reds fan, you look forward to the draft even though by the end you realize that they probably didn’t research as much as you did with letting several potential steals slip by. Nonetheless, I have never been in the position of knowing that my team will be selecting first in the draft. No worries about who could potentially fall to your pick or if another team realizes the potential of a little talked about but big on talent prospect; your pick essentially shapes the draft. But as a somewhat disappointing movie once said, with great power comes great responsibility. The team in question of selecting the first pick has a lot of pressure in ensuring that they won’t end up with a dud. Too often, and this goes with for so many franchises, you’ll see superior talent passed up due to the expected price tag. And being in the position these top picks are, they simply can’t afford not to spend the cash needed, the future of their franchise needs it.

I know it seems obvious and in delivering an article to you fine folks, I really tried to justify another player as my number one pick. But as with many other publications, the big lefty from North Carolina, Andrew Miller, is my boy. He’s got a great build for a pitcher at 6-6, 210. He possesses as a second pitch a pretty filthy slider when it’s on, with the velocity and break that give scouts feelings that they should only get from their significant other. A fastball that can reach the upper 90’s. Solid control and a good history of success against respectable competition (even if he hasn’t ran away with being the clear cut favorite.) Not to mention despite having the repertoire for the strikeout, he also has pretty strong groundball tendencies with using that plus slider to induce weakly hit groundballs. His delivery doesn’t scream of future torn this or ripped that, just a smooth wind-up and a clean delivery to the plate. He can get into a bit of trouble from time to time, but with the proper instruction and development, that should not be an issue. I can bet that no one in the Cape Cod League views it as such either. And even though from the description of him being a big guy with plus heat, he’s more than a raw flamethrower. From all accounts, it seems that he is mixing up his two-seamers, his four-seamers, his sliders and changing speeds in between to keep those aluminum bats confused.

Player                 ERA   W-L   APP  GS  CG SHO/CBO SV    IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO
Andrew Miller.......  1.91  10-0    11  11   0   0/3    0  75.1  58  25  16  21  79

As you can see, he's held opposing batters to a sub-two ERA while limiting their hits, posted a strong K/9, and shown solid control. I would like to dive deeper into his stats, but the ACC doesn't provide in-depth stats.

So what’s the problem? Most of you know Miller is a solid draft choice and a guaranteed top 5 pick (if not top 3), and many pegged Miller to be #1 in the draft and a Royal. That sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? Unless you’re a passionate Royals hater, for what reason I wouldn’t know (maybe you drove through Kansas City and it smelled funny), it’s nice to see a broken franchise get something they need. With a rotation of Scott Elarton, Mark Redman, Jeremy Affeldt, Joe Mays, and Denny Bautista (among other players lucky enough to be getting a big league salary), it’s not exactly one to wow the fans. Their farm system might have a few bright spots in terms of upcoming bats, and even though they could use any talent they can get, they need legitimate arms progressing towards the majors. Just take a look at the top pitching tools list according to BaseballProspectus.com:

“Best Fastball Luis Cota 
  Best Curveball Billy Buckner 
  Best Slider Greg Atencio 
  Best Changeup Chris Demaria 
  Best Control Chris Nicoll”

If any of those guys are making waves as a great young pitcher in a few years, I’ll be pleasantly stunned. So if they are lacking with serious arms in the rotation, both on the 25 man roster and on the farm, it only makes sense for them to select Miller. He is just about two years away from the majors (maybe less if they rush him) and has the biggest ace potential due to his development, stuff and the fact that he pitches and doesn’t just throw (I hate when that is said, but I just can’t word it any other way.)

But sadly for those poor Royals fans, it appears that KC could bypass Miller in favor of Washington right-hander Tim Lincecum. Is Lincecum a fine pitcher? Sure, but he doesn’t possess the same potential at all. And Kansas City apparently is coming to this decision for monetary reasons. Miller wants a hefty signing bonus in addition to a major league contract totaling close to six million. I will never possess that kind of money, whether to give to someone else or be in the position of receiving personally, but the Royals need to accept that this is the market. They are picking first for a reason, they have an ownership group who has simply refused for them to add the kind of payroll needed to get the talent to compete and to keep the talent they had. But they have a chance now to draft a player who will anchor their staff if all things go according to plan, a cornerstone for their future, why ruin it over a couple million dollars. The message that sends to fans is they are fully acknowledging that by picking last they are an awful team, but also that they lack the serious intent and commitment to pick the best talent no matter what the cost is to change the direction of this ship.

A fan of a struggling team can only take so much. If Miller is bypassed come June 6th, what does that hold for the Royals in the 2007 draft in which they surely will have another top five pick. The Royals will sign or trade for veteran talent like Reggie Sanders or Mark Redman, neither of which will be apart of the future Royals or a current winning Royals team but yet will skip a potential franchise changing player. And in essence this all boils down to the old saying about that it takes money to make money. Selecting a college arm with big time stuff can get the fans interested again if properly marketed. Just like if the common fan hears that the Royals skipped Miller due to monetary concerns while he starts to tear up the big leagues can seriously hurt fan support (assuming Lincecum or whoever they selected has nowhere near the same hype.) Make that leap of faith this year, in 2007, 2008 and onward. No one expects the Royals to become players in the free agent market but if they can build their team by the strength of their farm, maybe there will be hope again for this franchise.

The moral of the story is: You already messed up to get to the position you are in, don’t mess it up any more.

[McKain]

1) If the Royals management select Miller and rush him to the majors, they should be stripped of control over their team.
2) It'll be tough for a guy like Miller to anchor the staff with Zach SchizoGreinke still there... well, as long as he's sane.

Good article; always nice to read something about college baseball (though it's discussing college baseball as more of a side effect than anything else), a sport I never pay any attention to at all.

[missionhockey21]

I agree about not rushing Miller. With Homer Bailey being the only legit arm we have on the farm, my head feels like exploding when boneheads like Jerry Narron talk about him in the rotation this season (and remember, this was a high school arm unlike Miller.) But any team in the dark ages like the Royals are primed for those types of errors. And jeez, I forgot all about Greinke (shows how much this guy fell off the radar, otherwise known as the sanity mobile.)

And thanks McKain. BTW, did you write your article tonight or just finish it up? If you were writing it this late like myself, we must be on the same brain wave... I smell a Twillight Zone episode, or just two guys with nothing better to do at an hour when most people are asleep. I'll save it to read for tomorrow so hopefully I can make comments that are logical and free of non-sequiturs, which I make when I get tired and probably already have.

[McKain]

Hahaha, Narron has thought about bringing up Bailey? He's been spectacular and all, but it's always such a terrble move to rocket a guy up that quickly. Hamels has worked out so far but that won't last.

Yeah, seems everyone forgot about Greinke. Good news is he'll probably be back in another month, though he's still undergoing "psychological treatment" which is the most awful reason I've ever heard for a player to be on the DL. Such a terrible sign, especially at a young age.

I wrote my article tonight; I wrote a different one but it was awful and very incoherent so I switched gears and wrote the production/compilation one tonight.

and yes, I wrote it solely because it was like 2 AM and it was either write something or sit here and wait for the exhaustion to overwhelm me so I could sleep.

[BoSox34]

Great write up Mission... I really enjoyed the read!

[MarinersFan87]

Awesome stuff Mission. I've been really keeping up with the draft this year due to the abnormal amount of college pitchers who will be selected at the top. I love Miller also, he is insane, he had a 4 IP, 12 K game before it was called due to fog. His slider in the Cape Cod Legue this year was notorious, I like this quote from a coach:

'm not going to say this kid's name, but it was a righthanded hitter. He swung and missed at a slider that hit him right in the thigh. I'd seen him hit guys in the back foot on slider strikeouts last summer, but this thing was thigh-high and he swung as it hit him. He had no chance.

"We kept it very calm (in the dugout) because we didn't want to show him up. But some guys had to bite their sleeve to not laugh out loud."

Dominating, tall LHP that have already been seasoned in college for 3 years do not come around often. The only flaw he possesses (besides the signability thing) is some shady command.

However, I gotta disagree with you about the Lincecum potential comment. Lincecum brings it, he isn't as tall as Miller and IMO that is all that keeps him from being put in the same class as Miller. Lincecum has hit 101 a few times already this year, and throws 97-98 all game long. He is the most ready of any of the stud college pitchers this year, he could be a set up man right now from what I've heard. He is just the 3rd Pac-10 pitcher to go for 400 K's (It's not like I checked or anything, but I assume the other two are Prior and Johnson).

As much as I like Miller and Lincecum, they're only 1b and 1c. Brad Lincoln has been the most impressive college pitcher this year. His peripherals this year are out of this world, he is the perfect Moneyball pitcher. Once again, the only thing preventing him from being placed in Miller's category is his height. This past Friday he shut out number one ranked Rice (9 IP, 5 H, 9 K, 2 BB) and Rice averages over 7 runs a game. I'd have to say that he, not Lincecum is the more likely pick for the Royals right now.

[missionhockey21]

I am just extremely impressed with Miller's abillity to mix pitches. I wasn't trying to make a dig on on Lincecum, because truthfully, I do not know as much about him as Miller. But I have heard he has filthy stuff and the stats do not lie (but if I am praising him, it kind of hurts the strength of the article.) With Kansas City though, I think they would best off selecting Miller just due to the fact that in addition to the stuff, he has the qualities of an ace already. A lot of people love Miller's maturity on the mound. Plus, a lot of scouts are projecting Lincecum to be a closer because he does often throw a lot of pitches to each batter and shows wear later in the game.

And Lincoln is a guy I am really high on as well, if the Royals pass over Miller, they should select him. I also like Daniel Bard, Brandon Morrow, Joba Chamberlain, and Max Scherzer in addition to those three for arms to go early on. Personally, I am saying prayers to god that Daniel Bard falls to the Reds 8th pick but I am not for sure how likely that is going to be. What are you hoping for the Mariners pick this year?

Thanks for the comments, love the provided quote for Miller.

Oh and another guy to look for in the top 15 (maybe 10) or so is unsigned Dodger and Boras boy, Luke Hochevar. That is of course if he doesn't sign with the Dodgers by June 4th.

[MarinersFan87]

First of all, from what I've read most scouts do not agree with the Lincecum is going to be a closer statement. He has been described as having a 'rubber arm' and doesn't lose velocity as the game wears on. Plus, pitching in college is different, generally pitchers are allowed to go 125-130 pitches, but only pitch once a week so all of these guys are over-worked in some way (which is why many will probably start out in the pen in the minors). I think Lincecum will probably start out in the pen when he gets to the majors, but will eventually move to the rotation (a la Papelbon).

I want one of the big four pitchers preferably (Miller, Lincecum, Lincoln, Scherzer) but it is likely that they could all go in the first four picks. Evan Longoria is generally considered to be the 5th best prospect, but I don't want the M's to draft another hitting prospect, especially a SS/3B type. I'd probably go with Brandon Morrow, although I do not know as much about him as the other four except that he is 6'3 and gets it up near 100, although there are apparently some injury concerns. I wouldn't be dissapointed with Kyle Drabek or Dellin Betances (especially Betances, he looks like he is going to grow into a huge prospect) but I'd rather not take a HS pitcher. I wouldn't lose sleep if we drafted Bard though either, but I bet he is there for you guys at 8.

And Hochevar is every bit as good as these guys from what I saw last year when he pitched against LSU. But signability is still a concern and a lot of people are saying that he has lost some of his stuff in the layoff, we'll see when he pitches in the Independent League. He'll probably be a late 1st, sandwhich pick.

[MarinersFan87]

By the way, here are some videos, I'll see if I can find anymore:

LHP Andrew Miller, UNC

RHP Tim Lincecum, University of Washington

RHP Daniel Bard, UNC

[Saber]

There haven't been many pitchers with Miller's profile, but almost all of those pitchers have succeeded.

There haven't been many pitchers with Lincecum's profile, and almost all of them have been huge failures.

[HuskerFan2002]

Good read, mission.

[Dry1313]

*cough*RANDY JOHNSON*cough*

[missionhockey21]

First of all, from what I've read most scouts do not agree with the Lincecum is going to be a closer statement. He has been described as having a 'rubber arm' and doesn't lose velocity as the game wears on. Plus, pitching in college is different, generally pitchers are allowed to go 125-130 pitches, but only pitch once a week so all of these guys are over-worked in some way (which is why many will probably start out in the pen in the minors). I think Lincecum will probably start out in the pen when he gets to the majors, but will eventually move to the rotation (a la Papelbon).

I want one of the big four pitchers preferably (Miller, Lincecum, Lincoln, Scherzer) but it is likely that they could all go in the first four picks. Evan Longoria is generally considered to be the 5th best prospect, but I don't want the M's to draft another hitting prospect, especially a SS/3B type. I'd probably go with Brandon Morrow, although I do not know as much about him as the other four except that he is 6'3 and gets it up near 100, although there are apparently some injury concerns. I wouldn't be dissapointed with Kyle Drabek or Dellin Betances (especially Betances, he looks like he is going to grow into a huge prospect) but I'd rather not take a HS pitcher. I wouldn't lose sleep if we drafted Bard though either, but I bet he is there for you guys at 8.

And Hochevar is every bit as good as these guys from what I saw last year when he pitched against LSU. But signability is still a concern and a lot of people are saying that he has lost some of his stuff in the layoff, we'll see when he pitches in the Independent League. He'll probably be a late 1st, sandwhich pick.

You're right, he doesn't lose too much velocity as the game wears on (I heard he still hits 95 or so in the 6th and 7th) but just the mention of possibly being bettered suited in the pen is a worry for a team with such a high pick. I mean, I can see it too, not like it's guranteed but there is a better chance of that with his profile than with Miller's. And Saber makes a good point in regards to their profiles and the typical success associated with them. I think Lincecum is probably closer to 5-10 than 6-0, but then again I haven't seen a guy that small throw that hard, so who knows. It will be interesting to see how these guys develops and what kind of path they'll take to the majors.

Morrow has been making some impressions on scouts, so maybe you'll guys will luck out and he'll get picked, leaving one on your list left. He has been extremely impressive so far.

YEAR	ERA	G	GS	CG	W	L	S	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO
2006	1.74	13	13	2	7	3	0	93.3	65	29	18	36	96

And thanks for the video clips!

[MarinersFan87]

Anyone got the order to the draft? Hopefully a team in the 2-4 range won't be drafting a SP because a part of me might want Scherzer over the other 3 due to his insane season last year, although the injury concerns bother me.

And yea, Morrow is dominating this year, but he seems to be a notch below the other 4.

[missionhockey21]

First round:
1. Royals
2. Rockies
3. Devil Rays
4. Pirates
5. Mariners
6. Tigers
7. Dodgers
8. Reds
9. Orioles
10. Giants
11. Diamondbacks
12. Rangers
13. Cubs
14. Blue Jays
15. Nationals
16. Brewers
17. Padres
18. Phillies (from Mets for Type A Billy Wagner)
19. Marlins
20. Twins
21. Yankees (from Phillies for Type A Tom Gordon)
22. Nationals (from Athletics for Type B Esteban Loaiza)
23. Astros
24. Braves
25. Angels (from Indians for Type B Paul Byrd)
26. Nationals (from Angels for Type B Hector Carrasco)
27. Red Sox
28. Red Sox (from Yankees for Type A Johnny Damon)
29. White Sox
30. Cardinals