At the risk of being way too far out in front of this thing, here we go:
The Brewers can win 81 games this season.
Before firing off those stuck caps-lock e-mails railing against the lunatic who somehow sees .500 as a possibility, notice that we said "can," not "will."
Caveats? Aren't there always with the Brewers? It's just that for the first time in an addled memory they're not littering the field like a 4-6-3 double play, set up to be immediately and irrevocably knocked down.
Yet the rotation is again a pending calamity behind Ben Sheets and Doug Davis. There is the matter of a closer. And no everyday player can afford extended disabled-list time; such is the impracticable margin of error for a small-payroll team.
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They're a perfect 10
Otherwise, there is evidence that something approaching competence is about to descend upon the franchise this season.
It's called talent; not the kind to make the Brewers a player in the NL Central yet, even if the Cardinals, Astros and Cubs have taken big personnel hits. But maybe enough to prevent the Brewers from being dismantled after a 13th consecutive year of futility and sold for scrap metal, maybe enough to convince someone that this is a viable operation moving forward.
Actually, the convincing has already begun. That record-setting ticket sales day in February wasn't all faith-based.
"I think we're so much more talented than we've been since we've been here," third-year manager Ned Yost said. "The kids are starting to really get comfortable. They've got a much more relaxed feel about them that they belong a little bit now."
More than that, the Brewers now have legit three-four-five hitters in the order. Sheets will be better for the support. There are no everyday holes to fill, or at least none that needs to be accompanied by widespread panic or a perpetual Plan B. But relying on a rookie shortstop not named Yount? That's never comfortable.
Of course, it has to be tremendously unsettling for the organization that the rotation is not set three days before the opener. Barring a solution there, the kind of freefall that new owner Mark Attanasio would not abide is foreseeable.
And there is health, because depth is always going to be an issue for a $40-something-million payroll. Everything you needed to know about the vulnerable state of the Brewers last season was laid bare when Junior Spivey got hurt; with him went any pretense of competitiveness.
"Health is going to be our friend here," Yost said. "Without it we're going to be in trouble, but if we can stay healthy, I see a lot of good things."
Yost doesn't have to stick with an unproductive player for unreasonable stretches because options are available. His team speeches are down because the culture of losing is eroding.
"It's more of our team here now," Yost said. "The first year, that was what we inherited. Last year, Doug (Melvin) tried to put all our guys together by making that great deal with Arizona. Until injuries hit us last year, we were in great shape. Now, every guy we've got here is our type of guy, the kind of guy we want here."
How can Yost be sure this thing is headed the right way?
"Two million fans told us so last year," he said, which is a good point. If they drew 2 million for 67 victories last season, what might they attract if the win-o-meter nudges toward .500?
"We're getting there," he said.http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brew/mar05/314391.asp