NBA Rookie 2009-2010 What "Ifs"
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, 04-29-2010 at 08:11 PM (2018 Views)
As most expected, Sacramento King combo guard (he is not a point guard) Tyreke Evans won rookie of the year. He fairly beat out Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings. While it wasn't Lebron, Melo and Wade, it was a pretty damn good year for rookies. Did anyone see Darren Collison, Taj Gibson, or Marcus Thornton doing so well? Johnny Flynn, James Harden, and Chase Budinger were solid. No one saw Wesley Matthews coming, he wasn't even drafted. Omri Casspi is officially the greatest Israeli NBA player ever. DeJaun Blair's 48 per stats look like a bunch of teams completely whiffed on passing him up. Jonas Jerebko was the only good thing about the Detroit Pistons. All of this, all contributing members of their respective teams, and we did not have the services of the #1 pick (Clipper curse), #2 pick (spent time in the D-league), and #5 pick (thought Spain was better than Minnesota). But what do we really take from it all, if..
1. Suppose Stephen Curry was drafted by a different team?
Let's consider logical destinations: 2 - Memphis, they don't really have a point guard and Curry is unselfish; 3 - Oklahoma City, let's say he's coming off the bench like Harden for 25 mpg or so gunning away. Unlike Harden, he could back up both guard positions; 6 - Minnesota, it's easy to wonder if Rubio would have been enticed; by playing with one of college basketball's greatest assassins; 8 - New York, what if he's passed up by the warriors and he falls to a sane coach that runs the up tempo?; 9 - Toronto, Vinsanity is officially forgotten
What would really make this play out differently? First, if he fell to the Knicks. A likeable draft prospect that can handle the ball very well, play unselfishly but have the potential to shoot as well as Steve Nash AND be coached by Mike D'antoni? There's no way Curry isn't posting 20 points, 6 assists, 2 steals nightly. I'd go out on a limb and say he have more freedom, and would have led all rookies in scoring. The Knicks would still not be any good, as Curry isn't a defender, but they would be somewhat exciting to play, right?
Bill Simmons has pretty much rode out the OKC and Minnesota fantasies, but what about Memphis? Let's say they knew in advance Gasol and Randolph would pan out, they would have no need to draft Thabeet. Open the door for a guard improvement in Curry. Face it, Mike Conley is more reserve point guard than starter. Curry would provide another scoring option, a pure shooter to offset Mayo's chaotic play, and a better teammate. They still don't make the playoffs, but they ultimately become of the must see teams in the league.
2. What if Brandon Jennings carried more positive criticism heading into the draft?
He's immature. He's too small. He's not a point guard. He can't shoot. Frankly, how the Hell did Jennings maintain a lottery status with everything going against him? Perhaps this just proved he had a lot more to offer, instead of being buried by the insults, he placed a big chip on his shoulder and proved many wrong. His shot is still funky, but he's not a horrible shooter, he's just a streaky shooter. He was a solid leader, and a good point guard. It's not about scoring 50 in a game this season, it's him becoming a confident man down the stretch and also stepping it up in the playoffs currently against the Atlanta Hawks. So if he had legit hype, how high does he go? What if, let's say he did go to college and dominated much like Derrek Rose? Or what if he took the Euro-League by storm? I think it would have been hard for the Grizzlies to pass him up, Sacramento would have thought differently since they still have Kevin Martin at the time, and the Knicks and Warriors would have welcomed a point. Problem is, he wouldn't be in the playoffs right now on the verge of upsetting the Hawks.
3. How does the 2009 NBA Draft play out with what we know now?
Let's assume Blake Griffin injury is wiped clean and Ricky Rubio has declared that he would export himself if anyone but the smallish markets (Minnesota, Milwaukee, Memphis, and Toronto eliminated). At the same time, we have no idea how either would perform in the NBA. That's the risk.
1. Los Angeles Clippers - Tyreke Evans (followed by Baron Davis going to New York)
2. Memphis - Brandon Jennings (still not a playoff team, yet)
3. Oklahoma City - Blake Griffin (they could have gotten Salmons for cheap at SG, for example)
4. Sacramento - Stephen Curry (Sacramento makes out either way)
5. Minnesota - Darren Collison (when he filled in for Paul, he posted Paul-like numbers)
6. Minnesota - James Harden (that's a really solid rookie back court)
7. Golden State - Ricky Rubio (Don Nelson is fired, Rubio made player-coach)
8. New York - Jonny Flynn (He probably puts up 20 in that offense)
9. Toronto - Marcus Thornton (14.5 ppg in 25 mpg)
10. Milwaukee - Ty Lawson (he was productive in Billups absence, I think Milwaukee makes the playoffs regardless of the rookie PG)
11. New Jersey Nets - Omri Casspi (they get a more productive and polished swing man)
12. Charlotte Bobcats - Hasheem Thabeet (they're great at drafting overachieving college players)
13. Indiana - DeJuan Blair (I've always digged Hansbrough, but Blair was productive in just 19 minutes a game)
14. Phoenix - Chase Budinger (more of what I thought would be cool, an athletic swingman with range and no defense screams Phoenix)
Instead of Blair, the Spurs will land Jeff Pendergraph in round 2 as their typical draft steal. Jerebko still goes to the Pistons, Gibson still goes to the Bulls, Jrue Holliday still to the 76ers, Jordan Hill falls the Hornets, and Wesley Matthews gets drafted this time around, by the Hawks.