Tom Verducci's picks for the 2006 season.

[Providence A's]

I just don't see this happening.If anything,I see the Indians winning more games than last year.Maybe not 10 more games,but a few.

I see them doing about the same...I don't like his pick from last year lol...how could the A's be a disappointment when everyone said they'd be below .500 after trading Huddy and Mulder?? Unless he means he was disappointed that he was wrong because they did way better than anyone (including many A's fans like myself) predicted...

[Dam8610]

So now it was the roids that took away the speed and ot his age? You can't have it both ways man. Either he should decline or he shouldn't. With age came a better command of the strikezone and a loss of speed. Bonds using a different and lighter bat will contribute to that quicker, faster stroke. Providence is right to say that roids will keep you in the lineup.

I'm not trying to have it both ways. I'm telling you the steroids were a factor in his losing speed, gaining better command of the strike zone, and having a quicker and more powerful swing. You're telling me you don't find it odd that his first year of roiding was also his last year of 20+ SBs? Or that these otherworldly OBPs and SLGs start popping up when pitchers can't throw as far inside on him due to his added muscle mass? Or that this new "compact swing" that he "found" late in his career coincides completely with his bulk up, and the AB/HR ratios prove that? If so, I have a bridge that I think you might be interested in.

[love_that_reefer]

well, the effect of taking steroids would have done more than "add 10 games" to his season, but I'll just leave it at that because I don't feel like arguing something that people firmly believe one way or the other.

I am not arguing that roids don't do what you say they do in terms of prolonging a season. They just had nothing to do with the swing aspect of his game. And yes I do think the Indians will win about the same amount of games as last year.

[love_that_reefer]

I'm not trying to have it both ways. I'm telling you the steroids were a factor in his losing speed, gaining better command of the strike zone, and having a quicker and more powerful swing. You're telling me you don't find it odd that his first year of roiding was also his last year of 20+ SBs? Or that these otherworldly OBPs and SLGs start popping up when pitchers can't throw as far inside on him due to his added muscle mass? Or that this new "compact swing" that he "found" late in his career coincides completely with his bulk up, and the AB/HR ratios prove that? If so, I have a bridge that I think you might be interested in.

In 1999 Bonds had knee surgery for the first time so no its not a shock he stopped stealing bases. How were roids contributing to a better command of the strike zone? And yes you are having it both ways. You are trying to say that Bonds got better when he should have declined and that in the declination his SBs went down because of the roids. Either he is too old or he is not. If he is declining, his SBs would too with or without roids.

[realmofotalk]

AL Most Overrated
2005: Chan Ho Park, Rangers. Texas dumped him on San Diego for another overrated player, Phil Nevin.

Was Verducci hiding out in the Tora Bora mountains in 2003 and 2004?

NL Most Overrated
2005: Raul Mondesi, Braves. And to think Atlanta began last season with this guy as an everyday outfielder.

In the time it takes Verducci to figure out that Mondesi is overrated, you can write out a billion pink slips to Gord Ash while taping the event and then watch it in slow motion for a million times and still have enough time to save money on your car insurance.

AL Most Underrated
2005: Travis Hafner, Indians. No longer qualifies after fifth-place showing on MVP ballot.
2006: Jorge Cantu, Devil Rays. His defense is shaky at second base, but this guy can flat-out mash.

NL Most Underrated
2005: Brad Lidge, Astros. With 42 saves, established himself as one of the game's premier closers.
2006: Jason Bay, Pittsburgh. The attention will come if the Pirates finally manage a winning season.

And the award for Mr. Obvious goes to...

[Dam8610]

In 1999 Bonds had knee surgery for the first time so no its not a shock he stopped stealing bases.

Was it a tendon or ligament injury to his knee, or was it a muscle or bone injury? I seem to remember hearing about ligament damage to his elbow that year, but nothing about his knee.

How were roids contributing to a better command of the strike zone?

Okay, once again:

Steroids add muscle mass to the user's body. Added muscle mass makes the user physically bigger. Pitchers can't throw inside on bigger batters who crowd the plate, because they will invariably hit the batter. Eliminating 1/3 of the area the pitcher can throw to will invariably give the batter a better selection of pitches to hit.

And yes you are having it both ways. You are trying to say that Bonds got better when he should have declined and that in the declination his SBs went down because of the roids. Either he is too old or he is not. If he is declining, his SBs would too with or without roids.

What? Added muscle mass, especially at accelerated rates like steroids cause, will make the user slower, because the legs will be pushing more mass.

[Pronk48]

I see them doing about the same...I don't like his pick from last year lol...how could the A's be a disappointment when everyone said they'd be below .500 after trading Huddy and Mulder?? Unless he means he was disappointed that he was wrong because they did way better than anyone (including many A's fans like myself) predicted...

LOL,I don't think the A's were a dissapointment at all last year.I didn't expect them to have a season like they did in the past where they were dominant.When you trade away two of the most dominant pitchers in the league,you're gonna decline.

[HuskerFan2002]

At least Verducci didn't say the Dodgers will win the World Series per Rob Neyer.

[love_that_reefer]

Was it a tendon or ligament injury to his knee, or was it a muscle or bone injury? I seem to remember hearing about ligament damage to his elbow that year, but nothing about his knee.



Okay, once again:

Steroids add muscle mass to the user's body. Added muscle mass makes the user physically bigger. Pitchers can't throw inside on bigger batters who crowd the plate, because they will invariably hit the batter. Eliminating 1/3 of the area the pitcher can throw to will invariably give the batter a better selection of pitches to hit.



What? Added muscle mass, especially at accelerated rates like steroids cause, will make the user slower, because the legs will be pushing more mass.

It was arthoscopic knee surgery just like the ones he had last year or to be more technical in Novemeber of 2004. Elbow surgery was two years before his knee surgery if not mistaken. Maybe three

As for your second theory, that has no baring what so ever on his chasing balls out of the strike zone. He has always been right on top of the plate as all good hitters are. They have their spots in the batter's box where the always plant their feet. You can give the arguement that his elbow pad gives way but other than that, shhhh.

As for the third thing, you are still trying to have it both ways. He is either old or not. You cannot say he is old and then say his SBs declined because of roids. It doesn't hold any weight!

[love_that_reefer]

I see them doing about the same...I don't like his pick from last year lol...how could the A's be a disappointment when everyone said they'd be below .500 after trading Huddy and Mulder?? Unless he means he was disappointed that he was wrong because they did way better than anyone (including many A's fans like myself) predicted...

The A's were in no way a disappointment. They exceeded everyone's expectations but mine. I said they would finish second in the division because who am I to disagree with the scouting that goes on in the A's organization. They have the best when it comes to pitching and I knew they would do well. Look what they said when Hudson, Mulder and Zito came into the league.

[Dam8610]

It was arthoscopic knee surgery just like the ones he had last year or to be more technical in Novemeber of 2004. Elbow surgery was two years before his knee surgery if not mistaken. Maybe three

As for your second theory, that has no baring what so ever on his chasing balls out of the strike zone. He has always been right on top of the plate as all good hitters are. They have their spots in the batter's box where the always plant their feet. You can give the arguement that his elbow pad gives way but other than that, shhhh.

As for the third thing, you are still trying to have it both ways. He is either old or not. You cannot say he is old and then say his SBs declined because of roids. It doesn't hold any weight!

1) So does arthroscopic knee surgery mean he had a bone injury, or a tendon or ligament injury? The elbow tendon injury was in 1999. That's a fact. Another fact is in the offseason between the 1998 and 1999 seasons, Bonds's playing weight went from about 210 to about 225. It's purely coincedence that he tore an elbow tendon and slowed down in a season after adding 15 pounds of muscle mass in an approximately 100 day offseason though, right?

2) You're joking, right? Bonds is far thicker, for lack of a better word, today than he was even in 1998. That, along with his elbow gaurd, completely take away the inside of the plate from the pitcher. Taking a large area away from the pitcher that was there before is going to give Bonds better pitches to hit. If you can't see that, then you've been blinded by Barroid's propoganda.

3) Again, he gained 15 pounds of muscle mass in about 100 days. That's 15 extra pounds that his legs had to push. That, combined with major injuries around that time, at least some of which were caused by the roids, slowed him down.

[love_that_reefer]

1) So does arthroscopic knee surgery mean he had a bone injury, or a tendon or ligament injury? The elbow tendon injury was in 1999. That's a fact. Another fact is in the offseason between the 1998 and 1999 seasons, Bonds's playing weight went from about 210 to about 225. It's purely coincedence that he tore an elbow tendon and slowed down in a season after adding 15 pounds of muscle mass in an approximately 100 day offseason though, right?

2) You're joking, right? Bonds is far thicker, for lack of a better word, today than he was even in 1998. That, along with his elbow gaurd, completely take away the inside of the plate from the pitcher. Taking a large area away from the pitcher that was there before is going to give Bonds better pitches to hit. If you can't see that, then you've been blinded by Barroid's propoganda.

3) Again, he gained 15 pounds of muscle mass in about 100 days. That's 15 extra pounds that his legs had to push. That, combined with major injuries around that time, at least some of which were caused by the roids, slowed him down.

Ok I have no idea where you are getting lost.

1. Bonds' elbow surgery has nothing to do with anything we are talking about. Quit bringing it up. Bonds had surgery in 1999 on his left knee, the same kind of surgery that kept him out last year and that's a fact! The elbow has nothing to do with him running unless I missed something and he runs on is hands.

2. Bonds might be bigger but what the hell does that have to do with him not swinging at balls? He finds his pitch and drives it. He is much more patient at the plate. Add 400 lbs more and that does not change his mental approach. The Barroid propaganda is what you are reading and has failed you time and time again as I am showing.

3. I cannot believe you aren't getting this one. He was in his late 30's and on a bad knee but you think it was the roids that made him become slower and thus not stealing bases. Again and for the last time and I pray to Joe Pesci you get this, you cannot try and say that he is in his declining years and say its the roids that made him stop stealing bases. It doesn't make one bit of since.

[DirtyKash]

This is what preseason prediction threads are for, right? To bring them back up and see how someone has done as the season comes to a close. In this case, Tom Verducci. Let's take a look.

AL MVP
2006: Paul Konerko, White Sox. A power hitter in a power hitter's park can put up even bigger numbers if Jim Thome stays healthy.

.313, 97 R, 35 HR, 113 RBI for Konerko, not bad. Probably top-10 in MVP voting or so.

NL MVP
2006: Pujols, Cardinals. He's that good folks -- an all-time great.

Obvious chalk pick. Either MVP or top-2 in MVP voting.

AL Cy Young Award
2006: Rich Harden, Athletics. It may seem unusual to pick a guy who never has thrown 200 innings, but the same could have been said about Johan Santana in 2004.

NL Cy Young Award
2006: Jake Peavy, Padres. Still only 24 (born in the same year as Harden), Peavy already has an ERA title, a strikeout title, a .597 winning percentage and, according to baseball-reference.com, a Pedro Martinez-like career profile.

Better than his overall numbers indicated, but won't come close to the Cy Young.

AL Rookie of the Year
2006: Delmon Young, Devil Rays. Tampa Bay won't be able to hold him back. I like Francisco Liriano of Minnesota and Justin Verlander of Detroit, but no starting pitcher has won this award since Dave Righetti in 1981.

Delmon was called up too late because of the bat throwing incident, obviously. Props to Verducci for at least getting Verlander and Liriano in there.

NL Rookie of the Year
2006: Prince Fielder, Brewers. Big time power hitter should get plenty of at-bats, keeping a 30-home run season in reach.

Probably top 10 in ROY voting in a solid rookie class.

AL Manager of the Year
2006: Ken Macha, Athletics. Oakland has the best depth it's had in years, and Macha must keep everyone productive.

Who knows? We'll see in November.

NL Manager of the Year
2006: Grady Little, Dodgers. He has the right touch to bring back a team from a 91-loss season.

Another solid prediction.

AL Home Run Champion
2006: Teixeira, Rangers. He's just getting better.

9 HR in the first half, 23 in the second half so far, not quite close to Ortiz.

NL Home Run Champion
2006: Derrek Lee, Cubs. That 2005 season was no fluke.

AL Batting Champion
2006: Derek Jeter, Yankees. Can it really be that he turns 32 in June? The career .314 hitter could get a boost with Johnny Damon in front of him.

Not far off!

NL Batting Champion
2006: Pujols, Cardinals. Here's the scary part: at 26, he's just now getting into his prime.

Good AVG, but no one in their right mind would predict Freddy Sanchez.

AL Most Pitching Wins
2006: Harden, Athletics. He takes his place as one of the five best aces in baseball.

again

NL Most Pitching Wins
2006:Mark Mulder, Cardinals. There are plenty of wins to be had pitching for the NL's best team.

again again

AL Comeback Player
2006: Jim Thome, White Sox. The lineup and the ballpark are too favorable for him not to have a big season.

Dead on.

NL Comeback Player
2006: Eric Gagne, Dodgers. His velocity isn't all the way back yet, but his off-speed stuff still is nasty.

Comeback ... to the disabled list!

AL Most Overrated
2006: Jay Gibbons, Orioles. Not a bad player, but there was no reason for Baltimore to lock up a 29-year-old corner outfielder with a career .315 OBP and one 80-RBI season.

NL Most Overrated
2006: Jacque Jones, Cubs. An older Gibbons: a decent corner outfielder who doesn't get on base enough or produce enough runs.

Sensational picks.

AL Most Underrated
2006: Jorge Cantu, Devil Rays. His defense is shaky at second base, but this guy can flat-out mash.

Not quite...

AL Breakout Player
2006: Felix Hernandez, Mariners. Easiest call. Baseball's Next Big Thing, a once-in-a-generation pitcher.

NL Breakout Player
2006: Edwin Encarnacion, Reds. With Wright, Encarnacion, Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals, Chad Tracy of the Diamondbacks and Garrett Atkins of the Rockies, the hot corner in the NL is stocked with young stars on the rise.

Not a bad choice...

AL Surprise Team
2006: Devil Rays. You read it here first: a franchise record 72 wins. And free parking!

They're at 61-99 with two games left.

NL Surprise Team
2006: Brewers. The Brewers can be on the cusp of a wild-card spot with upper-80s wins.

Brewers are 74-85.

AL Disappointing Team
2006: Indians. Similarly, I think the Indians, who took a big leap forward last year, with take a smaller step backward with five to 10 fewer wins.

WINNER.

[Kingdom]

I think Leyland had the Manager of the Year award locked up months ago.