Is Burnett worth the money?

[Providence A's]

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/spo...8?OpenDocument

The Cardinals have offered a four-year contract worth nearly $40 million to free-agent starting pitcher A.J. Burnett.

Is this a good move, or a waste of money?

Pro: Burnett is entering the prime years of his career. He throws 98 mph. He can dominate and overwhelm hitters. He's the power arm the Cardinals need to go with Chris Carpenter to make the rotation more formidable in the postseason.

Con: Burnett's career won-loss record is 49-50.

Pro: Last season Burnett pumped out 23 quality starts for Florida, which ranked seventh in the National League and was more than any St. Louis starter other than Carpenter. His strikeout rate per nine innings was superior to Carpenter's.

Con: Critics say Burnett is an underachiever.

Pro: Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan's specialty is maximizing the talent of pitchers who haven't reached potential. Carpenter and Woody Williams were basically .500 pitchers until coming to St. Louis and thriving under Duncan's watch.

Con: In the 2005 wild-card race, Burnett flamed out, going 0-4 with a 5.93 earned-run average in September. And after popping off and criticizing the Marlins organization, a petulant Burnett was sent home early.

Pro: The Cardinals have a winning environment. Burnett would thrive on a team that puts a premium on professionalism and perseverance.

Con: Burnett has been on the disabled list four times in his career.

Pro: He's healthy now and threw 209 innings last season.

Con: Burnett has a tendency to fade late in games. Last season batters hit only .229 against Burnett up to his 90th pitch. After his 90th pitch, they batted .289. In the first six innings, the batting against him was .225. After the sixth, it was .321.

Pro: Marlins manager Jack McKeon pushed his starters hard; the Cardinals would use a more intelligent approach.

Con: Since the start of the 2002 season, Burnett has had a 2.85 ERA when pitching in Florida's roomy stadium. On the road, his ERA has been 4.12.

Pro: The new Busch Stadium has more spacious dimensions. Besides, Burnett gives up few home runs - only 12 last season.

On our radio show Friday, I asked Marlins executive Andre Dawson to assess Burnett.

"He has dominant talent, as long as he isn't trying to throw the ball by the hitters all the time," Dawson said. "He needs to work on changing speeds more. His potential is unlimited. He has great work ethic. He wants to win. But he needs to bear down a little more. He tends to lose focus, especially late in games."

Our conclusion: If Burnett signs with the Cardinals, Duncan will push Burnett into greatness. And Burnett is a ground-ball pitcher who would receive a big lift from the Cardinals' tight defense.

Besides, Cardinals ownership is rolling in money. It's not as if the owners will lower ticket prices if they fail to sign Burnett.

I think it would be a good deal for the Cards, but i thought Toronto was going to offer more money...They may have to increase their deal. Also, the Cardinals are going to need to replace some offense as Walker retired and Sanders is most likely gone. That really just leaves Rolen coming off a shoulder injury, Pujols, and Edmonds...

[go_bucs2000]

I think it is a good move by the Cardinals because every time he pitches he will have the padding of runs for him with the explosive Cards,40 mil is alot of money buy hey I think all positions are overpaid

[Fishercat]

Some of those cons are just not legitimate

The W-L Record doesn't matter that much, the fact that he faded as the year ended can be attributed to his TJ Surgery and his lack of action in 03-04.

He's a risk, and I'll be honest, I don't think he's worth 10+ million dollars, but he is likely the best pitcher on the market who won't cost a team established players/high level prospects and for a team with the money, he's a good risk.

[General]

I'm sick of hearing about Burnett. He'll sign, suck, and everyone will hate him. The end.

[Providence A's]

He's a risk, and I'll be honest, I don't think he's worth 10+ million dollars, but he is likely the best pitcher on the market who won't cost a team established players/high level prospects and for a team with the money, he's a good risk.

No, but he will cost you either your 1st round or 2nd round pick plus the Marlins will get a sandwich pick (between 1st and 2nd round)

[Fishercat]

Quite true. In that case, the Sox are in the mid-20's, so they'd lose that pick. Still, rather lose that instead of losing some of the team's best prospects. This is Beckett v. Burnett, I'm fine with what they gave for Beckett/Lowell/Mota, I do worry about Burnett. Almost all of Beckett's injuries have been blisters, and the Sox can just do what they did with Lowe for him, but Burnett has his issues.

[love_that_reefer]

They are better off signing Morris who is a better pitcher IMO for about 2 mil less per year. Burnett is not worth $10 mil but someone will pay it.

[RockSports17]

No, but he will cost you either your 1st round or 2nd round pick plus the Marlins will get a sandwich pick (between 1st and 2nd round)

Really? I didn't know that. I really don't follow those type of things. I can definitely understand why the Tigers won't be going after him now.

With that said, 10 million is overspending, but that's the market nowadays. He does have his games where he can really pitch well, but he's inconsistent. He's a risk like previously said. Would I sign him if I were a GM? Of course, only if my team was a playoff team, had the breathing room money-wise, and was in need for a #1-3 starter.

If I was far from the playoffs and my team was younger, I wouldn't touch Burnett with a 10 ft. pole. It'd be stupid to give up a decent draft pick and watch your 10 mill. go to a high risk player. It's just not a smart move for a non playoff team.

But LTR is correct, there are cheaper, low risks pitchers out there such as Matt Morris, Tony Armas, Jarod Washburn, Jeff Weaver, Kenny Rogers, & Jamie Moyer.

[Providence A's]

The Tigers have the #6 pick, so they'd only lose a 2nd round pick. If you're in the top of half of the 1st round, you get to keep it. If you're in the bottom half (like the A's who lost their pick to the Nationals now) then you lose it. The supplemental picks are added. It's all based on what the free agent is worth.

This has the updated stuff as of 12/2

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...sts/askba.html

[MarinersFan87]

They are better off signing Morris who is a better pitcher IMO for about 2 mil less per year. Burnett is not worth $10 mil but someone will pay it.

Does the fact that Morris has lost 4 MPH on his fastball over the past year not concern you at all?

[love_that_reefer]

Velocity isn't everything. Morris had a good fastball early on in the year when he came back but tailed off at the end. I see that as having an out of shape arm. I see no reason Morris doesn't come back better next year.

[MarinersFan87]

1st half/2nd half splits:

1H 2005: 73k, 16bb, 6hr … 3.10 ERA
2H 2005: 44k, 21bb, 16hr … 5.32 ERA.

Past five years:

2001 – 7.7k, 2.2bb, 0.5hr
2002 – 7.3k, 2.7bb, 0.7hr
2003 – 6.3k, 2.0bb, 1.0hr
2004 – 5.8k, 2.5 bb, 1.6hr
2005 – 5.5k, 1.7bb, 1.0 hr (including the terrible second half)

The drop in K's should be a concern, and can be traced to his shoulder problems. That should also be the reason for his horrible 2nd half, his arm got sore over the course of the season. If he was healthy then he is still a good #2 guy, but if not then he'll be a disaster for the kind of money he is going to get.

[Kingdom]

He'll go down as another bad signing on a long long list of bad signings. Or, at least, he'll join ex-teammate Carl Pavano on some list.

[Providence A's]

1st half/2nd half splits:



Past five years:



The drop in K's should be a concern, and can be traced to his shoulder problems. That should also be the reason for his horrible 2nd half, his arm got sore over the course of the season. If he was healthy then he is still a good #2 guy, but if not then he'll be a disaster for the kind of money he is going to get.

Is that for Morris or Burnett? I think you're talking about Morris since LTR brought him up.

[love_that_reefer]

Like I said, Morris should come back and be 100% in 2006 and has a much better track record than Burnett or Loaiza and other FA pitchers out there. He was a good pitcher on the road and could help a team with a good home park such as Dodger Stadium or SBC Park.