Weekly Discussion: The Race Is On

[redsrbetter]

WEEKLY DISCUSSION: THE RACE IS ON

Its the middle of the summer and the greatest show of all time is building toward its greatest moments. There are plenty of solid teams still climbing their way to a playoff spot. Yes, thats right folks, its time to tally up the Wild Card Race!

This week we are going to discuss who is in the hunt, what teams have the key factors to push them over the edge, and what key matchups will be vital for teams to win. This week, lets concentrate on the American League alone.

Current Wild Card standings: (will be updated every day this week)

Team.......GB
Athletics...LEADER
Yankees...LEADER
Indians....LEADER
Twins......3.5
Blue Jays..6.5
Tigers.....8.5

Lets take a look at each of these teams.

* A's are the current leader and are only 2.5 games behind the Angels in the West. Do the A's have a chance at winning the AL West? If not, will they get the WC? They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and they were against two other teams in the race in the Twins and the Orioles. Those games could have been crucial enough to at least completely put Baltimore out of reach. The A's have to pick it up to stay in it. Can they do it? Lets see how it goes this week.

* Yankees are the team that is always in the playoffs. Is it possible that they don't make it this season at all? They definitely have a good enough team, but with division rivals so close they are going to have to play strong baseball for the remainder of the regular season. The Yanks are currently 4 games behind the BoSox and they have the ChiSox to battle with this week. Is this a crucial time for them to play hard? They have to at least avoid a sweep. What will their chances look like after this week?


* Indians are definitely out of the AL Central division title with the ChiSox 10.5 games up. So they have to play for the Wild Card right now. Their schedule for this week is against the Orioles and then the DRays. If they can sweep the Orioles, they could end Baltimore's chances. With the Yanks battling the ChiSox, can these Indians catch them here soon?

* Twins are another team that has to fight for the Wild Card because they too are in the ChiSox leading central division. They have won 7 of their last eight games to help them get so close in this race already. They have Seattle whom they lost 2 of 3 to last week, and then the ChiSox whom they swept. With another big week, they can be right back on top of things. Can they do it?

* Blue Jays have quietly been in it this season. With other teams getting the attention, can they sneak their way into contention? They are 4 games out which means they have to play some amazing baseball from here on out, but it can be done. They have Detroit right now, then they take on 3 teams fighting in this WC race. Yanks, Indians, and Orioles. With some key victories and winning each one of these series, they can move ahead of some of these teams by the end of the month. Where do you guys see the Blue Jays ending up?

* The Orioles have a fighting chance? They sure do. But 7 games back means they have to be almost perfect. They have plenty of teams on their schedule of whom if they can beat them, and hopefully sweep a few series, things may look really good come the end of September. Is this possible with everything going in with this team right now?


Ok so there it is ladies and gentleman. What do you all see happening? Lets talk this week about some of these games that are going to be very important to the team's possibilities. Its crunch time, who wants it the most?

Also be sure to enter this poll: http://www.strike3forums.com/forums/...ead.php?t=5794

[Fishercat]

Oakland Athletics:

The Athletics, in spite of leading the WC race and still being in competition with Anaheim, have two serious red flags in my book (as do most teams). The first red flag is the lack of a true offensive presence. Chavez, Crosby, and Johnso are all hitting really well, but where's the feared hitter who you either risk pitching to or avoid on purpose? Anaheim has a hired gun like Guerrero that scares teams into pitching to players like the underrated Ben Molina. Baltimore has the 1-2 punch in the middle infield. Teams with the ability to pay from a safe instead of a wallet such as the Red Sox (Ortiz, Ramirez, Varitek, Damon) and Yankees (Giambi, Rodriguez, Sheffield, Jeter, and arguably Matsui) have numerous guys. The only teams in contention in the AL without a big punch hitter is arguably Chicago and Toronto. In fact, according to BP's VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) statistic, Oakland is the only team without at least one player 30 runs over his replacement player. Oakland's offense will not scare anyone, especially when the most hyped up player in recent times (Jay Payton) is sporting an OBP under .300 with the team.

Their other flaw, in my opinion, is the potential for at least two of their starting pitchers to run out of steam. Harden and Zito shouldn't be problems, but you want a guy like Haren in that third SP role when the playoffs come around, and he doesn't have a lot of innings, he could burn out. The offense is clearly the bigger problem.

If I had to guess, I think they won't make the playoffs, but I'd love to see it and I wouldn't be surprised it they did.

[B}New York Yankees[/B]

The Yankees or the Red Sox (depending on who doesn't win division) will win the WC in my prediction. Yes, they have certifiable issues with their starting pitching. Johnson's been inconsistant, who knows on Moose, Brown has built a condo on the DL, Shawn Chacon (who has been fantastic) is still a TBD, Leiter's having troubles late in his career, Wang is out with injury, Pavano's been less-than-spectacular, Wright can only go up at this point. So, how the flying hell am I picking a team with this much trouble to win the WC? Their offense is fantastic on the whole. Posada's not great and whoever the third OF is (that isn't Sheff or Matsui) sucks, but the rest of the lineup is pretty darn nice. Their bullpen has "The Girl Who Loved" Tom Gordon and the impeccable Mariano Rivera (reminds me a lot of the A's pen with Duchscherer and Street, but old), and that PITA Tanyon Sturtze (You don't know how as a Sox fan, but when Sturtze comes in, just fast forward two innings on offense until he's gone). I admit I'm more of a sucker for an elite offense than elite pitching (although I shouldn't be), so I like the Yankees over the A's.

Cleveland Indians

I can't see it. They have offensive firepower from the horrendously underrated Jhonny Peralta and Travis Hafner along with Grady Sizemore. The offense is not the Indians problem. Their pitching simply isn't strong enough to compete. It's slightly better than Boston, but Boston has the offense to make up for it, moreso than Cleveland. They have a decent 1-2 punch with Millwood and Lee, but Sabathia busted this year. Their pen is underrated as there are a bunch of guys there who will give them good innings, but the starting pitching needs to get better for them to seriously compete.

Minnesota Twins
You'd think a team with two of the best SPs in the AL (Silva and Santana) and Crain/Rincon/Romero/Nathan in the pen would have a shot right? They have at least four starters who range from ace to a good #3, and then Joe Mays. Their pen is very nice and it shows in how few pitcher they have had to use this year. The pitching is set for now and the future (I just saw some of Liriano on TV, and I can see why no one wants him traded. He is sick). The pen has got an unexpected boost from Matt Guerrier too, the pitching is a non-issue.

The problem is easily the offense (and no Lynch, it's not Brad Radke. ). Joe Mauer is showing how his potential this year and is their best hitter considering position. Players like Torri and Jacque have been okay, but the offense is simply not good enough to be a realistic contender in my book. At least Oakland has some more upside (Chavez is recovering his stats from a crappy start, Johnson is new, etc.), Minnesota has some major issues and they need some production from within. Fast. I don't see them getting the WC and they'll have trouble moving from third place.

As for the other two AL East teams, I just don't see it. Baltimore has a nice offense for sure, but that pen is really weak and the SP isn't much better. Their best SP has 16 stars, their second best is BRUCE CHEN. He's been very good, but still. They're simply a worse version of the Cleveland Indians. The Blue Jays have an Oakland-esque offense and while the pitching is competent, it's no better than several teams in the race for the WC. If either get the spot, it'll be a surprise.

[Fishercat]

I want to make a bit of a retraction though. My bashing of the Oakland A's offense wasn't warranted. While they don't have that offensive juggarnaut player, they have still accumulated a Top 10 run total and I didn't realize that. I was wrong there. My pick doesn't change, I still think the Yankees or Red Sox will win the WC, but I was wrong on the A's.

[redsrbetter]

Nice thoughts Fisher!

* The A's today and last night to KC. Of all the teams to lose to while in a WC hunt, you lose to one that lost its previous 19. Oakland is still 0.5 games ahead of the Yankees, but with the way their offense has been playing, they may lose that lead real soon.

* The Yankees have gained a full game up on the A's and have beaten the White Sox along the way. They have the Blue Jays next and could really put themselves in control with a sweep against them.

* The Indians have won their last 4 games! They have put themselves in a tie with the Yankees. They also have the luxury of facing TB for the nest four games. They could very well be our WC leader by the end of the week.

* The Twins also gained a game up on the competition with their win today.

* Blue Jays have lost their last 3 to drop to 5.0 games back. Are they out of it now? Or can they gain some kind of momentum against the Yankees? This Yanks series is very big for them. This series will either make them or break them. I think this will be a very interesting series to follow.

* I think the Orioles have completely lost their chances. The Tigers have taken a position ahead of the Orioles now. Better luck next season?

[Providence A's]

I expect the Yanks/Sox to win the Wild Card, but I'd like to see the A's win because everyone wrote them off. I didn't think the A's would be horrible, but I didn't expect them to compete this year. I expected (and still do!) them to compete next year and really clean house in 2007 as the trades of Mulder and Hudson will really pay off and other youngsters will be up with this current group that will be young veterans.

[love_that_reefer]

I would take the Twins, Indians, and A's pitching over the Yankees. I cannot see the Yanks winning the Wild Card with their remaining schedule. Twins are starting to come back around and score some runs and they know how to get into the playoffs. Who would I like to see win it? The Indians. Who do I think will win it? The A's.

[redsrbetter]

OK everyone, good thoughts so far. If you guys would care to join me, I am starting a Game Thread in the Blue Jays forum for the Jays/Yanks game. This is the all important series I was talking about which could decide either teams fate.

EDIT: Halladay has a thread going already!http://www.strike3forums.com/forums/...ead.php?t=5828

[redsrbetter]

Well the Blue Jays got shutout in that game. They are going to have to really pick it up if they want to stay in this thing. Like I said, this series is vital.

[redsrbetter]

Well we now have a three way tie for the Wild Card leader. It is between the A's, the Yankees, and the Indians. The A's have been struggling of late and really need to get it going to regain the lead.

All three teams have it easy this week. A's Vs. Tigers, Yankees vs. Blue Jays, and the Indians vs. DRays. I think this will be a very tight race between the three of these teams.

BTW, the Orioles have all but fallen off the race as they are 8 games back and have to create the impossible now. The Tigers have taken a lead over them. The team that could pull the biggest upset would be the Blue Jays, but they have to get it done against these Yankees over the next three games.

Blue Jays fans, can this be done? Yankees fans, will you guys take the sole lead by the end of the week? A's fans, will you guys pick it up against these Tigers? Indians fans, where are you seeing your team by the end of the week?

[Halladay_is_God]

Blue Jays need to get it together aginast the Yankees, all I want from the Jays is to play spoilers to the Yankees, they got 9 more games against each other in the season.
What a bad time to hit a slump, Jays are getting no timely hitting with runners on base at all and they can't wait until September to make call ups so the bullpen can get some much needed rest, maybe get to see 2004 1st round pick LHP Zach Johnson come up and pitch.

Roy Halladay and Ted Lilly needs to comeback very soon, too bad, that won't happen for another 2 weeks at least

[fpwarriors65]

the indiansa are taking it they are playing so hot right now winning 15 of the last 20 and winning 6 of the last 7 seriss so i think they make the playoffs

[redsrbetter]

2 weeks away for them is a very long time. Especially when they are threading the needle so to speak. This team has to find a way to get it done without their biggest pitchers. We'll see how they do today!

[redsrbetter]

the indiansa are taking it they are playing so hot right now winning 15 of the last 20 and winning 6 of the last 7 seriss so i think they make the playoffs

Yep those series wins have been huge for them. I think if anyone is going to fight the Yankees, its the Indians for sure. Their pitching has been phenomenal even without Sabathia plying as well as we remember him.

[love_that_reefer]

How is the BlueJays/Yanks series an easy one?

[browntown653]

RESULTS - 8/23/2005

NY Yankees 5 - Toronto 4...Felix Escalona wins it with a 2 out single after Hideki Matsui's tying HR in the 9th
Cleveland 5 - Tampa Bay 4...Coco Crisp's 2-run triple in the 7th holds up as the Indians win their 9th straight road game
Detroit 4 - Oakland 1...Carlos Pena homers twice as Oakland drops their third game in a row
Minnesota 1 - Chi White Sox 0...Jacque Jones's 8th inning solo homer is the only hit of the game for the Twins, but holds up behind a dominating performance from Johan Santana

WC Standings
1. Yankees 69 -55
1. Indians 70-56
2. Athletics 68-56
3. Twins 67-58

Last 10 Games :
Yankees 7-3
Indians 7-3
A's 2-8
Twins 8-2

Streak:
Yankees W2
Indians W5
A's L3
Twins W2