Power Rankings, Week 1

[bcshorts]

This is the first of the weekly power rankings I hope to compile throughout the course of the season. Typically, they will be based on certain factors like offense, defense, and pitching, as well as run differentials and records. From time to time, certain subjective factors will also be thrown into the mix. The point of the power rankings? Quite simply, to rank the best teams in baseball, focusing primarily at this point in time, but also largely weighing, as the season goes on, what each team has achieved up to that point.

I will preface this first edition by saying that, quite frankly, some of these look kind of crazy. But it's only been one week of baseball, so bear with it. This week's edition is based almost entirely on predictions and actual game results, and less on some of the nicer numbers of baseball. Other than the actual predictions, though, all subjective ideas are left out of this week's edition. So if you think I'm a homer for having the Braves at #1, it's only because of the predictions used (for example, I have them sixth, Baseball Prospectus fifth, etc.). Without further adieu...

1. Atlanta Braves, 5-1
The boys of the South are off to a very strong start thanks to excellent starting pitching and timely hitting. The additions of Lowe, Vazquez, and Kawakami to the pitching staff have contributed to a combined starter's ERA of 2.20 for the rotation entering today's game. Big starts by rookie Jordan Schafer and Jeff Francoeur make this offense a potentially dangerous one. The Braves have what might be the best offense, in terms of getting on base, in the NL. Everyone can easily hit over .280 and have much higher OBP's. The bullpen is the biggest question mark here, but the back end is very solid with Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. If the rest of the bullpen can bridge the gap between starters and the 8th, this team will be tough to score on.

2. New York Yankees, 3-3
After a tough start to the year, the Yankees won three straight before blowing an eighth inning lead today. If the bullpen can get the ball to Rivera, this team's pitching rivals any in the bigs. If they can't, winning close games could be very tough. The lineup has been off and on this year, and an early injury to Mark Teixeira only hurts. But as long as he can stay in the lineup, the Yankees are going to drive in enough runs. And that's before one Mr. Alex Rodriguez returns.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers, 4-3
The Dodgers sport what might be the best lineup in the National League, and perhaps the whole majors. Anchored by Manny Ramirez, young guns like James Loney, Russell Martin, Andre Either, and Matt Kemp figure to fill the bases all year. The easiest out might be Casey Blake, and that's never a bad thing. The obvious question for the Dodgers is the starting rotation, but budding ace Chad Billingsley, along with Clayton Kerhsaw and Randy Wolf, should provide enough strong outings to let the offense outscore their opponents and win a lot of games.

4. Chicago Cubs, 3-2
The Cubs feature a nice balance between hitting and pitching. A lineup with Alfonso Soriano, Milton Bradley, and Aramis Ramirez has power, but they also have a lot of glue guys in there like Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot. The Cubs need two things to happen, though, to be considered elite again this year. First, the need Milton Bradley to stay healthy. If that happens, they have as great a power threat as anyone else in the NL. Second, Chicago desperately needs something from the third outfield spot (Kosuke Fudodume, I'm talking to you!). If that happens, the pitching is strong enough to get them home field advantage in the playoffs. Carlos Zambrano isn't the prototypical ace, but with two and three options like Ryan Dempster and Rich Harden, they have a very strong top three. The closer's situation is a little confused right now, but there are two very capable options in Marmol and Gregg.

5. New York Mets, 3-3
The Mets have a problem, and that's starting spot number two. After Johan Santana, there is really no one on their staff that is capable of filling that role. And, unlike the Dodgers, they don't have a complete lineup that can consistently outscore people. They rely too much on the homer, and won't score enough runs to offset their lack of a #2. Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez are all solid three or four guys, but unless Pelfrey takes a huge step forward, there's a definitely hole here. The offense also sports an automatic out at catcher, and an aging second baseman in Luis Castillo. They'll get plenty of wins, and compete for the NL East title, but their lack of pitching makes it tough to imagine them doing much in the playoffs. Expect to see the pitching of the Braves and Cubs carry those respective teams to the NLCS.

6. Boston Red Sox, 2-4
What is there to say about the Red Sox except consistency. Their hopes of reaching an elite level once again will rest on their pitching staff. Although Josh Beckett has looked strong early, Lester and Matsuzaka struggled in their first starts. I don't expect that to continue, but both of these guys basically maxed out last season, so some sort of a dropoff is likely. However, the depth of the entire pitching staff provides plenty of room for error. And, unlike the Yankees in recent years, the Red Sox have that intangible ability to win, so expect them to climb up toward the top spot and again challenge for an American League Championship.

7. Tampa Bay Rays, 3-3
The Rays have a lot of question marks this year, as many guys overperformed last season. They really need Kazmir to have a career year if they want to be on the same level as the Yankees and the Red Sox. They have the hitting, especially with added slugger Pat Burrell. But the rotation has to go more than three deep, and I'm not sure it does. In fact, unless Kazmir does have that breakout year, they even lack a true ace, something they won't be able to overcome again.

8. Los Angeles Angels, 3-3
The Angels may have the most question marks of any contending team. Their pitching staff has started the year with a slew of injuries, including to ace John Lackey and rising star Ervin Santana. If those two can return, their staff will be a very good one. If they can't, the Angels are in trouble. The offense has some good pieces, although Guerrero and Hunter are both aging. These guys are the default favorites to win the AL West, as their hitting is certainly no worse than the A's, and the pitching has the potential to be much better. Still, this isn't an especially strong team with it's current composition.

9. St. Louis Cardinals, 5-2
The hopes of the Cardinals ride on the arm of Chris Carpenter. If he can put in close to 30 starts, St. Louis has a legitimate chance to challenge for the Wild Card, although probably not the division. The lineup is an interesting one, consisting of a bunch of sluggers in Ludwick, Ankiel, and Pujols. They will miss Glaus at third, but a possible return in June could give them a nice push. All in all, there are tons of question marks here. But Tony LaRussa always keeps his teams challenging for at least .500 ball, and the potential of Chris Carpenter could push them a little farther.

10. Philadelphia Phillies, 3-3
And now we come to our defending champs, a team hurting in pitching and offering up a very incomplete lineup. Suppose Cole Hamels can pitch 30 starts at close to normal level. Suppose Jamie Moyer can keep his ERA around 4.00. Suppose Brett Myers can avoid implosion. Suppose the third base and catchers spots aren't automatic outs. Suppose Ryan Howard can hit .260. Even if all those things happen, this isn't a playoff team. That's how much this team overperformed last season. They have no staying power atop the NL or even the East. Their top six match up with about anyone else's in baseball, but that can only take them so far. They will be competing with the Mets, Braves, Diamondbacks, and possibly the Marlins, Cardinals, and Brewers, for two spots. Three of those teams are clearly better, and unless a lot of things go right for Philadelphia, those last three could be as well.

11. Florida Marlins, 5-1
12. Arizona Diamondbacks, 2-4
13. Oakland A's, 2-4
14. Toronto Blue Jays, 5-2
15. Minnesota Twins, 3-4
16. Cleveland Indians, 1-5
17. Colorado Rockies, 3-3
18. Detroit Tigers, 4-3
19. Milwaukee Brewers, 2-3
20. Cincinnati Reds, 2-3
21. Seattle Mariners, 5-2
22. Chicago White Sox, 3-3
23. San Francisco Giants, 2-4
24. Texas Rangers, 3-3
25. Baltimore Orioles, 4-2
26. San Diego Padres, 5-2
27. Kansas City Royals, 3-3
28. Pittsburgh Pirates, 3-3
29. Houston Astros, 1-5
30. Washington Nationals, 0-6

[HollywoodLeo]

I object to sub-.500 teams being in the top 10 and a 5-2 first place team being in the bottom 5.

[NYgiantsfan5689]

Yea how can you put the Padres at 5th from the bottom? They're 5-2.

And how can you have the Yankees at #2 and yet not have them on the poll? Plus, they shouldn't be in the top 5 with a 3-3 record

[Porter]

How are the M's #20 after winning their last 4 games?

[CrazyEights]

9. St. Louis Cardinals, 5-2
The hopes of the Cardinals ride on the arm of Chris Carpenter. If he can put in close to 30 starts, St. Louis has a legitimate chance to challenge for the Wild Card, although probably not the division. The lineup is an interesting one, consisting of a bunch of sluggers in Ludwick, Ankiel, and Pujols. They will miss Glaus at third, but a possible return in June could give them a nice push. All in all, there are tons of question marks here. But Tony LaRussa always keeps his teams challenging for at least .500 ball, and the potential of Chris Carpenter could push them a little farther.[/B]

It's amazing how much this team is always underestimated. The Cardinals have a legitimate chance to challenge for the division title if Carpenter's arm can stay healthy. They have a very good top 3 starters (Carpenter, Wainwright, and Lohse).

[Porter]

Id like to keep this in mind before having the Braves #1

The Cards are 2nd in runs scored and only the Pads and Royals have lower ERAs than the Cards (3.33)

[bcshorts]

What none of you guys seem to understand (or read, actually) is that I did not pull these out of my ass, nor were these based on my own subjective opinion. These are based on a combination of predicted strengths and early returns, with the emphasis on predictions. Anyone who decided to read the first two paragraphs would easily understand that. It is also stated that these power rankings are not solely about how the team has performed during the last week, but rely heavily on deciding who the best team is. But perhaps we have a few illiterate or mentally challenged readers here. For that, I'll explain the rankings.

#1 Atlanta Braves: Ranked 6th in my preseason rankings, ranked 5th in Baseball Prospectus's. Ranked 2nd in run differential, ranked 1st in winning percentage.

#2 New York Yankees: Ranked 2nd in my preseason rankings, ranked 2nd in Baseball Prospectus's. Ranked 9th in run differential, ranked 12th in winning percentage.

#6 Boston Red Sox: Ranked 1st in my preseason rankings, ranked 1st in Baseball Prospectus's. Ranked 23rd in run differential, ranked 24th in winning percentage.

#21 Seattle Mariners: Ranked 28th in my preseason rankings, ranked 21st in Baseball Prospectus's. Ranked 6th in run differential, ranked 5th in winning percentage.

#26 San Diego Padres: Ranked 29th in my preseason rankings, ranked 30th in Baseball Prospectus's. Ranked 8th in run differential, ranked 6th in winning percentage.

When ties occur, I rank within that tie based on my preseason rankings.

If you disagree with my methodology for this first week, fine. Go ahead. Congratulations. You want to have bottom ten teams in the top ten because they won five games in their first week, good for you. Go make your own list with the Padres, Mariners, and Marlins in the top five. My purpose is to determine and rank the best teams in baseball, and that's what I'm going to do. The methodology for the entire year isn't completely set in stone yet, but this first week is more about projection than anything else. If you can't understand that, perhaps you should be spending more time getting smarter, not on a baseball forum.

[bcshorts]

It's amazing how much this team is always underestimated. The Cardinals have a legitimate chance to challenge for the division title if Carpenter's arm can stay healthy. They have a very good top 3 starters (Carpenter, Wainwright, and Lohse).

I definitely think they'll be around in some sort of postseason discussion. I'm really not sold, especially at this point, that they can actually compete for the division title. However, the Cardinals are a lot like the Red Sox of the last few years in the respect that they know how to win and are always, consistently competitive.

If Wellemeyer, Pinero, and Lohse can have solid years, the Cardinals might go a little farther than I think. But offensive weaknesses at second, short, and third have me pretty skeptical. That's why I don't think they'll be able to take it to the next level and challenge the Cubs. I certainly hope they can, though, as I am not a Cubs fan at all.

[bcshorts]

Oh, and the Yankees are an option. I'm not sure what you're looking at.

[Porter]

I think the fact there were isn't any pre-season power rankings on the site to go off of at all might have caused the outcry. Just my personal opinion. I think this will get better in time as the season goes on.

[cjkalt]

For what its worth, I kinda like the rankings... u can't overestimate 1 week, but it does matter a bit too

[realmofotalk]

But perhaps we have a few illiterate or mentally challenged readers here.

and butthurt homers.

[NYgiantsfan5689]

and butthurt homers.

Oh, and the Yankees are an option. I'm not sure what you're looking at.

my b, went through the poll too fast

[HollywoodLeo]

What none of you guys seem to understand (or read, actually) is that I did not pull these out of my ass, nor were these based on my own subjective opinion. These are based on a combination of predicted strengths and early returns, with the emphasis on predictions. Anyone who decided to read the first two paragraphs would easily understand that. It is also stated that these power rankings are not solely about how the team has performed during the last week, but rely heavily on deciding who the best team is. But perhaps we have a few illiterate or mentally challenged readers here. For that, I'll explain the rankings.

#1 Atlanta Braves: Ranked 6th in my preseason rankings, ranked 5th in Baseball Prospectus's. Ranked 2nd in run differential, ranked 1st in winning percentage.

#2 New York Yankees: Ranked 2nd in my preseason rankings, ranked 2nd in Baseball Prospectus's. Ranked 9th in run differential, ranked 12th in winning percentage.

#6 Boston Red Sox: Ranked 1st in my preseason rankings, ranked 1st in Baseball Prospectus's. Ranked 23rd in run differential, ranked 24th in winning percentage.

#21 Seattle Mariners: Ranked 28th in my preseason rankings, ranked 21st in Baseball Prospectus's. Ranked 6th in run differential, ranked 5th in winning percentage.

#26 San Diego Padres: Ranked 29th in my preseason rankings, ranked 30th in Baseball Prospectus's. Ranked 8th in run differential, ranked 6th in winning percentage.

When ties occur, I rank within that tie based on my preseason rankings.

If you disagree with my methodology for this first week, fine. Go ahead. Congratulations. You want to have bottom ten teams in the top ten because they won five games in their first week, good for you. Go make your own list with the Padres, Mariners, and Marlins in the top five. My purpose is to determine and rank the best teams in baseball, and that's what I'm going to do. The methodology for the entire year isn't completely set in stone yet, but this first week is more about projection than anything else. If you can't understand that, perhaps you should be spending more time getting smarter, not on a baseball forum.

Maybe you didn't pull the rankings out of your ass but perhaps you should pull the stick out.

So a few people disagreed with your rankings. Deal with it.

FWIW I'm fairly certain the Padres will find their way to the bottom of everyone's rankings pretty soon.

[ljshorty89]

Are you telling me that you think Jurgens/Vazquez/Kawakami are better than Pelfrey? Vazquez is a journeyman, Kawakami is totally unproven, and Jurgens has one decent year, same as Pelf. So if you think that the Braves are the overall number one team with pretty much the same rotation as the Mets(the rotation being what you claim to be the Mets' problem), than how are the Mets in trouble come playoff time?

Also, the Mets do not at all rely on the HR, they have Reyes giving speed, Murphy who is a perfect high average, 15 HR guy batting #2, and then a bunch of guys 3-6 who are double or HR guys in Wright, Delgado, Beltran, and Church. Other than maybe Delgado, not one of them "relies" on the HR. Schneider is not a good hitter, and Castillo is a question mark. If Castillo hits like the last two days, then our lineup is more than fine, and we will prove your power rankings completely wrong. If he doesn't, then who knows. But for you to claim that the Mets rely on the HR and have a significantly worse rotation than the Braves is inane to me.