Power Rankings, Week 1

[DiamondDave]

Braves #1... snicker

[love_that_reefer]

Santana's elbow is fine. He had soreness. It's gone now. Do you really believe that the Mets would risk him getting severely injured? I can't possibly believe that the team would just hope for the best, they would be absolutely sure he's fine.

Just curious, What makes you guys pick Lowe for the Cy Young? He's had one REALLY good year(2002), and a bunch of slightly better than league average years since then. He's coming to a better hitting division, and he's older than each of those years(obviously), so what makes him suddenly be the best pitcher in the league? Personally, I don't see it.

Santana's elbow is fine for now but its a long season. It is a legitimate concern just like Hamels elbow is.

I picked Lowe because he has said he learned a lot from his time Greg Maddux and it definitely showed last season, especially in the second half. I see that carrying over to this year.

[ljshorty89]

Santana's elbow is fine for now but its a long season. It is a legitimate concern just like Hamels elbow is.

I picked Lowe because he has said he learned a lot from his time Greg Maddux and it definitely showed last season, especially in the second half. I see that carrying over to this year.

I dunno, yes it's a long season, but in reality, I don't think Santana is any more at risk than anyone else. Hamels is different because he has a history of arm troubles in the minors. But whatever, that's a point of contention that we'll agree to disagree on.

As for Lowe, I know he looked great second half, and I know he learned from Lowe, but I just don't see him being THE singular best pitcher in baseball this year.

[love_that_reefer]

That's fine you don't see Lowe winning the award. Its not a popular pick and didn't expect a lot of people to like it but was glad to see CJ pick him too. He has looked sharp so far in two starts even if the last one was cut short.

[bcshorts]

I understand your opinions, but I respectfully disagree. The notion that Javier Vazquez is better than Pelfrey is something I cannot agree with. He has had a very very average career at best. He is a journeyman because he is not really a 2 starter, he's more of a 3-4. Pelfrey is not an outstanding 2 starter(as of this second), but his numbers last year were outstanding with a 3.72 ERA, over 200 IP. Considering he had only 90 IP prior to last year, I would say that's pretty quick success. Maybe Jurrjens' success came quicker, but I'm not sure it was significantly more impressive. Jurrjens had an ERA .04 lower, about the same WHIP, and a very similar K/BB. So, I'd put Jurrjens on par with Pelfrey. I'd say Maine to Vazquez is a closer comparison. I'd give Kawakami a SLIGHT edge over Oliver Perez. I don't know who the Braves' 5 starter is, but let's say I give him the edge of Livan Hernandez. Santana is much better than Lowe, even though Lowe is very good. So, on the whole, I'd say the rotations are about the same, if the Mets aren't better.

In the lineup, it'd take way too much analysis for me at this time of night, but I will agree that there are spots where both teams have the advantage. It too is close. The bullpen is an interesting spot, because I'm not sure what to expect from the Mets bullpen. However, I also don't know who in the Braves' pen is a sure thing. Moylan/Boyer/Gonzalez/Soriano are talented, but not unhittable, and will probably be a step below K-Rod/Putz/Green. So, I'd say that on the whole the Mets are a better team.

I understand that your rankings factor in a lot on this first week. I'm just saying that I thought your rationale was a little bit weak, since I disagree with you on the Mets' rotation being as glaring a weakness as you made it out to be.

I say Vazquez is better because in his last five seasons in the NL, he has an ERA of 3.80. In this last three years in Montreal, he had ERA's of 3.42, 3.91, and 3.24. That's why I expect him to have an ERA under 3.90 (terrible bet, CJ) and be easily better than Pelfrey. Perhaps Pelfrey will duplicate last year's breakout, and potentially take it even further, but I'll take Vazquez any day.

Jurrjens, also, was better than Pelfrey last year, although their final ERA's looked the same. Maybe it was the law of averages, or maybe it was wearing down. But Jurrjens had an ERA of 3.00 as late as July 8, and 3.28 on August 20, before rising to 3.68 at season's end. He also has a better K/9 and a slightly better K/BB rate than Pelfrey. But we're talking so close, that last year was a complete push. I'm not sure this year will be, as I think Jurrjens will edge Pelfrey by a slightly bigger margin.

For whatever it's worth, that means I think the Braves #2 and #3 are better than the Met's #2, and that's why it's a glaring weakness to me. Of course, Vazquez is known to choke under pressure in Chicago, so maybe he will here as well. But I'm going off a complete year's worth of competition, and I definitely take Vazquez.

I have no clue how to compare Kawakami to Perez. From what I know, Kawakami is at least consistent, which is something I personally value. There's no doubt Perez will have days where he's close to unhittable, but he'll also blow up quite a few times.

Again, I'm not really sure how to compare the fifth spot. I'd assume Hanson gets the job sometime early in the summer, in which case I'd like him. But Hernandez does something I love out of a fifth starter, and that's eat innings. I kind of like him as the Met's #5, actually.

I like the Met's bullpen more than the Braves, but Atlanta's can round into form and become a very solid one. But as I said earlier, I have the Mets as the better team right now. Just happens that the Braves have gotten off to a better start.

And, again, I'm not trying to defend having the Braves #1, because, in my subjective opinion, they're not the best team. But I don't think they're significantly worse than the Mets, and I think they're better than the Phillies and Marlins.

[bcshorts]

And, considering Johan Santana is the best pitcher of the last decade, I think I'll take him slightly over Lowe... He will most certainly have a better year than Lowe, and put up bigger numbers as well. I like Lowe a lot, but there are very few guys who are at the level of Santana, and he's not one of them. Santana >>>>>> Lowe. And I like Lowe a lot.

[bcshorts]

That the Marlins aren't in the top ten is a ridiculous omission!

And not really. Considering the Marlins were pre-ranked 20th and 15th respectfully, a move to 11th is pretty strong.

And besides, they'll be put in their place after the Braves take two, maybe three, in the upcoming series.

[cjkalt]

And not really. Considering the Marlins were pre-ranked 20th and 15th respectfully, a move to 11th is pretty strong.

And besides, they'll be put in their place after the Braves take two, maybe three, in the upcoming series.

I'm 99% sure Reefer was being sarcastic

Did CJ just tell me that Santana=Lowe? Really? The best pitcher in the game(at age 30) who is left handed, has 2 Cy Youngs, and won 16 games last year despite his bullpen blowing 7 leads, and has a 3.10 career ERA and 110 wins is equal to a 36 year old guy who has 127 wins and a 3.74 ERA.

In what way is Lowe even CLOSE to being as good as Santana, CJ? Because he won a ring in Boston? Oh right, that means that F***ing Kevin Millar is as good as Carlos Delgado, and Bill Mueller might be better than Wright? Think about it for a minute, and you'll realize how wrong the "Santana=Lowe" statement was.

Johan obviously has more talent but I believe that the #'s this year will be similar. Lowe, is going to a bigger ballpark and despite what you say the NL East doesn't have the best lineups ever and Lowe last year had a 3.24 ERA, since Pelfrey's 3.7 is very good, Lowe's 3.2 from last year must be amazing. I think Lowe will have an ERA in the 2.85-3 range which makes him equal to Johan for this season.

[love_that_reefer]

No Cj, I was not being sarcastic. The Marlins are for real and its time someone start to notice. Better defense, better offense and a better closer. Plus they are 5-1 and just came off a series win over the Mets. That the Marlins were pre-ranked (where ware these rankings?) so low gives me little interest in these rankings. This team finished just 7.5 games out of first last year and got even better! Hermida to LF and Hanley to the three hole are huge improvements from within.

[bcshorts]

No Cj, I was not being sarcastic. The Marlins are for real and its time someone start to notice. Better defense, better offense and a better closer. Plus they are 5-1 and just came off a series win over the Mets. That the Marlins were pre-ranked (where ware these rankings?) so low gives me little interest in these rankings.

First of all, Lindstrom is not necessarily better than Gregg. That's kind of laughable. Yeah, he strikes more guys out, but Gregg wasn't any worse for the Marlins last year than Lindstrom will be this year.

And they are so low because there are certain ones of us who don't buy into all the media hype and do rankings and projections based on numbers and on our own thoughts. The Marlins won't finish above .500, and that's why they were in the 15-20 range. Makes a decent amount of sense, I think.

Plus, your offense doesn't get better by losing Mike Jacobs and Josh Willingham, and your defense isn't going to improve from last in the NL to something respectable by getting rid of one guy and putting a second baseman at third base. They have more speed, yes, but how often will Maybin and Bonifacio get on base?

And the rotation has serious questions, like Andrew Miller and Anibal Sanchez. Neither of those will be under 4.40. Volstad isn't going to come close to what he did last year, and will be above 4.40 as well. Nolasco and Johnson are very talented pitchers, but Johnson can't stay healthy and Nolasco isn't proven. Not to mention they have the worst bullpen I've seen in awhile. Hell, even the gnats have a better bullpen. Sell, sell, sell...

[love_that_reefer]

Its not laughable one bit. Anyone who has seen Lindstrom pitch can tell him and Gregg are night and day talent wise with Lindstrom being the better of the two. Dominating fastball with a good slider. That's why the Marlins weren't worried one bit about trading him, they had someone better to take his place.

What is laughable is that you somehow think I am buying into this "media hype". I am going off what I saw last year and the improvements they have made as a team. To somehow suggest I didn't do my own thinking on this is an insult and so I will tell you to go **** yourself since you don't know what the **** you are talking about. This is an improved team that finished just 7.5 games back and that's why I have them higher than a lousy 11th.

Hanley moving from leadoff to third does help the offense as does the addition of Maybin. A lot more speed goes a long way in that ballpark they play in as well. Lots of room to play. Hermida to LF was a huge move that will help the defense and Maybin to CF, Ross to RF and Cantu to first does as well. Bonifacio is better than anything the Marlins had at third last year. More range and much more athleticism.

Every rotation has question marks but don't see the Marlins having any more than any other team in the East. Hamels has elbow issues and not much behind him in the rotation, the Mets rotation isn't that strong behind Santana and the Braves have the very streaky Vazquez and a 34 year old Japanese starter that might not hold up. They all have questions and serious ones at that. Sanchez has a very good chance of being under the made up 4.40 ERA since he has the talent to do so. Johnson and Nolasco are too talented to fail without injury. This rotation is a year wiser with some being a year and more past major surgery. All signs point to improvement. The Marlins have a good bullpen with Nunez setting up Lindstrom and Ceda soon to join it. The Giants have a much improved bullpen this year so I don;t get that reference either. Buy if you know what is good for you.

[ljshorty89]

Johan obviously has more talent but I believe that the #'s this year will be similar. Lowe, is going to a bigger ballpark and despite what you say the NL East doesn't have the best lineups ever and Lowe last year had a 3.24 ERA, since Pelfrey's 3.7 is very good, Lowe's 3.2 from last year must be amazing. I think Lowe will have an ERA in the 2.85-3 range which makes him equal to Johan for this season.

I think you're SO wrong. First off Lowe's great ERA last year came against the worst division in baseball (offensively). The NL West LEADER in Runs scored would have been no better than 3rd in any other division last year.

Second off, Lowe also pitched in a HUGE ballpark in LA. In fact, if you use basebal reference, last year, Atlanta's ballpark very slightly favored hitters(was a 101, where over 100 favors hitters), whereas Dodger stadium was a 95/94, so it favored pitchers. If anything he's going to a more OFFENSIVE ballpark.

Third off, Pelfrey is a 2 starter, Lowe is an ace. Pelfrey had 90 career innings before last year, Lowe has almost 2000. Pelfrey is 24, Lowe is 36. The standards are different. Considering everything (in the highest scoring division in the NL overall), Pelfrey was pretty damn good. Lowe was good too, but he SHOULD have been better than Pelfrey.

Fourth off, Johan had a 2.53 ERA last year. Even if Lowe decides he's going to get better at age 36, in a more offensive division, in a more offensive stadium, he will be unlikely to improve his ERA by .5. But even if he somehow improves his ERA that significantly (with all the reasons above listed why he won't), he would still end up with an ERA in the 2.7 or 2.8's....which would be .3 HIGHER than Johan's ERA last year. And Johan was changing leagues, he had more to adjust to. And that's not even mentioning that Johan pitched the last 2 weeks or so with a torn meniscus in his knee...

There is just no way that you can tell me Lowe is equal to Johan, it's just not true.

[cjkalt]

I think you're SO wrong. First off Lowe's great ERA last year came against the worst division in baseball (offensively). The NL West LEADER in Runs scored would have been no better than 3rd in any other division last year.

Second off, Lowe also pitched in a HUGE ballpark in LA. In fact, if you use basebal reference, last year, Atlanta's ballpark very slightly favored hitters(was a 101, where over 100 favors hitters), whereas Dodger stadium was a 95/94, so it favored pitchers. If anything he's going to a more OFFENSIVE ballpark.

Third off, Pelfrey is a 2 starter, Lowe is an ace. Pelfrey had 90 career innings before last year, Lowe has almost 2000. Pelfrey is 24, Lowe is 36. The standards are different. Considering everything (in the highest scoring division in the NL overall), Pelfrey was pretty damn good. Lowe was good too, but he SHOULD have been better than Pelfrey.

Fourth off, Johan had a 2.53 ERA last year. Even if Lowe decides he's going to get better at age 36, in a more offensive division, in a more offensive stadium, he will be unlikely to improve his ERA by .5. But even if he somehow improves his ERA that significantly (with all the reasons above listed why he won't), he would still end up with an ERA in the 2.7 or 2.8's....which would be .3 HIGHER than Johan's ERA last year. And Johan was changing leagues, he had more to adjust to. And that's not even mentioning that Johan pitched the last 2 weeks or so with a torn meniscus in his knee...

There is just no way that you can tell me Lowe is equal to Johan, it's just not true.

You want to make a sig bet? Lowe -.30 vs Johan's ERA? I guarantee you Lowe wins.

[love_that_reefer]

And not really. Considering the Marlins were pre-ranked 20th and 15th respectfully, a move to 11th is pretty strong.

And besides, they'll be put in their place after the Braves take two, maybe three, in the upcoming series.

Sure called that one

[ljshorty89]

Take 2 or 3....Lose all 3....same thing.