So just how good is Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State right-hander who is regarded as the No. 1 talent in this year's draft?
"The best I've ever seen," says a longtime scout. "And it's not even close."
C'mon. Better than Mark Prior? Remember how incredible he looked coming out of Southern Cal -- tall, big legs, good mechanics, robot-like. You're saying he's better than what Prior was then?
"Easily," says the scout, over the phone. "I'm telling you, it's not even close."
What did you see in him? "The day that I saw him pitch, his first fastball was 99 mph, and he was at 100-102 mph the rest of the way," says the scout, someone who is not inclined to hyperbole.
Yeah, heard he had a good fastball. Straight as a string, right? "That's the thing," said the scout. "Whenever you see a fastball at 100 mph, it's always straight. No movement. But his fastball has a lot of movement, which really doesn't make that much sense, because it's on the hitter so quickly. His fastball cuts."
Wow. His secondary stuff must be a work in progress. That's the way it usually is with guys who are that overpowering at that age.
"No," said the scout. "He's got a plus slider, at 93-94 mph, and he's got a plus changeup. He's the best I've ever seen."
How are his mechanics? "Fine," says the scout. "Looks totally fine to me. No real concerns."
Strasburg has thrown 20.1 innings this season, and he has 45 strikeouts. That means that out of the 61 outs he's registered, 45 are by strikeout. "It's like watching someone play one of those baseball video games for the first time -- it's like the hitters are completely guessing where he's going to throw the ball," said the scout. "They're just swinging in a spot and hoping that's where he throws it, because they can't track it."
The way you're describing him, I say to the scout, you're talking about someone who could be in the big leagues this summer?
The scout laughs. "You could put him in a rotation right now, and he could be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter," says the scout. "Right now, he's better than A.J. Burnett."
So in other words, in this scout's eyes, Stephen Strasburg, the ace of the San Diego State Aztecs, is better than the No. 2 free agent pitcher in the offseason, and he could be the ace of the Washington Nationals by the end of the summer -- if they decide to take him.
Here's the primary mitigating factor about the greatest pitching prospect that this scout has ever seen: He's represented by Scott Boras, who has been known to hold out players for months, for years, in his effort to get his clients what he deems to be a fair-market price. Who knows what Boras has in store.
So by the time the draft is held in June, there is going to be immense pressure on the Nationals to draft Strasburg and get him signed, for at least a half-dozen reasons:
1. They've been a disappointment since moving to Washington. Based on the television ratings, it's fair to say that the Nats' fans aren't growing restless so much as they haven't really been paying attention to a team that has basically been terrible.
2. The Nationals really don't have an identity. Strasburg would give them an identity, immediately, a talent that would inspire the fans and draw them to the club's year-old park.
3. The Nationals failed to sign their No. 1 pick from last year, Aaron Crow.
4. A player that the Nationals touted as a top prospect turned out to be the baseball version of Milli Vanilli -- a player who falsified his age, in a revelation that led to the dismissal of assistant Jose Rijo and GM Jim Bowden.
5. Stan Kasten may well choose his next general manager by the time the June draft rolls around, and the organization would not want to saddle that GM with the responsibility of explaining why the club either passed on the top talent in the draft, or why the team failed to sign the player.
6. The Nationals need pitching. Desperately. They will not be relevant in the NL East until they get more pitching.
If the Nationals passed on Strasburg, the Mariners presumably would pounce on the opportunity to pick the right-hander, given how much grief the organization has taken for passing on a local kid named Tim Lincecum a few years ago. And with the addition of Strasburg, the Mariners' rotation would have a backbone of Felix Hernandez, Brandon Morrow and The Greatest Pitching Prospect Ever.
There is a school of thought, among some teams, that drafting a pitcher very high in the first round carries too much risk. If catcher Matt Wieters was in this draft, for example, some teams might be inclined to take him, as a rising star prospect who might play 10-15 years in the majors, over Strasburg, as good as he is.
But, as Keith Law writes in our daily draft blog, there doesn't appear to be anyone comparable to Strasburg. He appears to be the best talent in this draft, and in the mind of some, the best talent ever. The immortal Sidd Finch has come to life, without the quirks and the baggage, and he's pitching for San Diego State. For now. He may well be in the big leagues, if somebody meets Boras' asking price, by August or September.
The Mariners' strong finish last year probably ruined their chance to get Strasburg, writes Jason Churchill.
Here's a look at a 23-strikeout game that Strasburg had last year.