DiMaggio's Streak

[BuckFoston]

None of this compares to the frenzy that would surround a player who had a hitting streak approaching 56 games. DiMaggio's record is probably the most famous streak in all of sports (above even Ripken's), and the media scrutiny on anyone who challenged it would be insane. But who's got the best chance? I crunched some numbers to find the 10 players who have the best chance of breaking the record.

This amazed me: DiMaggio struck out 13 times in 621 plate appearances in 1941. That's 2.4%. Although a factor, I didn't consider strikeouts in my analysis. Here's what went into it:

Hit Percentage
No, not batting average. Batting average doesn't take walks into consideration, and that's a big factor here. Walks are actually a negative in looking for someone who could put together a long hitting streak- a plate appearance that ends in a walk is one less that can result in a hit. Hit Percentage is simply hits divided by plate appearances. Ichiro leads in this category at .297 over the last three years. In 1941, DiMaggio's Hit Percentage was .311. Walks are the reason guys like Pujols and Utley aren't in the top 10.

Lineup Slot
The higher you are in the lineup, the more times you get to bat, and thus the more likely you are to get at hit. This actually has a pretty significant effect on one's chances of reaching 56 games. The chart on the right shows the expected plate appearances per game for each lineup slot (as you may notice, the math is not terribly complicated- it just goes down by .12 each time). This generally isn't a huge factor, as almost everybody on this list hits first, second or third, with the exception of Robinson Cano (more on that later).

Team Runs per Game
Well, if your team scores a lot of runs they obviously turn the lineup over more often. I found that for each run your team averages above the league average, that adds .15 plate appearances. I didn't use such a dramatic effect in my model, as offenses vary over time and we're looking at each player's entire career rather than just this year or next year.

Age
I just assumed that each player plays until the age of 40. I also factored in a slight decline in both Hit Percentage and games played as players get into their late 30s. What's interesting about this is that the following list isn't dominated by players in their early 20s. This is because your Hit Percentage has to be at such a high level to have any significant chance of breaking the record that age isn't all that important, as only an elite group of players even enters the discussion.

So I've gone through the factors, now here's the list of the guys who have the best chance to break the record.

Vegas Watch: What Are The Odds: DiMaggio's Streak

I don't think Jeter would ever get close to this but I would also put Ichiro over Cano. At the same time though Cano may have more seasons to play then Ichiro so which in turn would give him more chances. They could also both get hit with the injury bug so maybe neither of them could get close to this record... To be honest though I don't see this record ever beeing broken, pitching is just starting to get way to advanced...

[Dry1313]

No one will ever touch this. Ever.

[browntown653]

This is as unbreakable as records get in sports.

[Slyder]

Someone would have to get really lucky to get to Pete's NL record of 44 let alone even approach Joltin Joe. This one is as safe as any in baseball. Just look at how often 35 games gets approached....

Hitting streak - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A grand total of 14 times has someone hit 35 straight games (besides Joe) and Ty Cobb is the only guy to do it twice. Even with the watered down pitching of today it would only take one day to end a streak.

BTW Only 2 of those have come since 1990.

The hitters today are much different also. So many more guys swing for the fences rather than just make contact and let their natural ability take over (like many of the greats). DiMaggio at times went 2 whole seasons without that many K's as even guys like Pujols.