Baseball salaries spiral out of control
$136-million man: Former Nationals outfielder Alfonso Soriano hit the jackpot and signed an eight-year contract with the Chicago Cubs.
STEPHANIE MYLES, Montreal Gazette
Published: Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Vladimir Guerrero was three years too early, or three years too late.
The former Expo's free-agent year in 2003 came halfway between perhaps the two biggest inflationary salary spikes we'll see in baseball - although we shouldn't speak too soon.
Guerrero probably hasn't been paying attention, although his agent surely has. But the message sent by this out-of-the-blue offseason spending spree is the following: the Guerrero of three years ago, a monster player who hadn't yet entered his prime, was worth exactly the same as J.D. Drew is today.
Drew, 31, on the verge of signing an identical five-year, $70-million U.S. deal with the Boston Red Sox, is four years older than Guerrero was in fall 2003 and far less productive. In his career, he has missed an average of twice as many games per year as Guerrero missed during five entire seasons between 1998 and 2002. And the raw numbers aren't even close. Drew's career batting average is 40 points lower; Guerrero had 30 per cent more doubles, homers and RBIs, nearly twice as many stolen bases. And Drew struck out nearly 50 per cent more often.
And it's impossible to imagine Drew, who more often than not barely shows evidence of a pulse, carrying a team on his back the way we saw Guerrero do time and time again. And not only will he never win an MVP, Drew won't even be in the top five on his team.
Three years ago, it seemed nearly impossible for Guerrero's agent to extract more than a five-year deal from anyone. But
Alfonso Soriano got eight years and $136 million this year. Carlos Beltran seven years and $119 million last year. Is there anyone who believes a 27-year-old Guerrero wouldn't be worth at least as much?
But that's the way it is. Without factoring in Drew's yet-to-be-finalized deal, or the payday to come for Oakland A's left-hander Barry Zito, Japanese sensation Daisuke Matsuzaka and others, baseball already has spent more than $1.35 billion on free agents this offseason. That's about $45 million per team.
The sheer volume of thoroughly average players getting multiyear, multimillion dollar deals is what is shocking.
Giving malcontents Kenny Lofton and Jose Guillen $6 million is far more offensive than taking a chance on Mascouche native eric Gagne. A report citing anonymous sources yesterday said the Texas Rangers are prepared to offer that amount - pending a physical - to the former Dodgers closer, with incentives that could nearly double its value. Gagne, a right-hander, is recovering from surgeries on his pitching elbow and a herniated disk.
Barry Bonds's $16 million probably will pay for itself at the box office in San Francisco. But the two years and $12 million handed to ageless, but aging Mets right-hander Orlando (El Duque) Hernandez by former Expos general manager Omar Minaya is a bit of a head-scratcher, as is the $5 million going to Guillermo Mota, who tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug last season and will miss the first 50 games of 2007.
But even the biggest numbers this year haven't come close to those during the 2000 winter, three years before Guerrero went contract shopping. That's when Alex Rodriguez got his $252-million contract. Derek Jeter got $189 million, Manny Ramirez $160 million and Mike Hampton $121 million.
"The market has definitely spiked. There's no doubt about it," Red Sox GM Theo Epstein said during the just-completed winter meetings.
Thank you, Captain Obvious.
If the $40-million, four-year deal about to be handed to former Expo and Blue Jay Ted Lilly shocks you, or if you think $24 million for three years to another former Expo/Blue Jay, Miguel Batista, is a lot to pay a 35-year-old, you'll probably remember the nearly $40 million the Yankees paid for yet another former Expo, Carl Pavano, last year as well as the $40 million they gave to Javier Vazquez.
But during that 2000 winter, there were many more cautionary tales concerning pitchers. Five years and $55 million went to Darren Dreifort. Five years and $51 million went to Denny Neagle. Four years and $42 million went to Kevin Appier. Who?
It's not just the Yankees and Red Sox on this spending spree. It's pretty much everyone. Major League Baseball revenues were $5.2 billion U.S. this year. That's $170 million per team, even if the teams themselves obviously don't see all that money. There will be labour peace for the next five years.
That the woeful Kansas City Royals gave $55 million to Gil Meche and offered Batista a similar deal to the one he accepted with Seattle is where we get back to the Expos.
Clearly, there's enough money for everyone, and then some. If only there had been the will to hang in there.
One of the few teams that hasn't spent a dime this winter is, you guessed it, the Washington Nationals. They made an insulting, below-market offer to former Expo Tomo Ohka, but that's it.
They could have done that here.
Note - After his coaching contract was not renewed with the Chicago White Sox, former Expo Tim Raines has returned to his former organization, sort of. Raines will take two steps down from the big leagues after being named yesterday as the new hitting coach for the Double-A Harrisburg Senators, still part of the Nationals' minor-league chain.