The Astros already have waited too long to trade Roy Oswalt. But they should not resist the idea any longer.
Much as owner Drayton McLane hates to concede, he needs to understand that A) his team is going nowhere and B) his farm system ranks last in the majors, according to Baseball America.
Trading closer Jose Valverde, shortstop Miguel Tejada and catcher Ivan Rodriguez would be a start. But Oswalt — even a declining Oswalt — could bring the most significant return.
Oswalt, like Jake Peavy and Astros teammates Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, has a full no-trade clause. He is earning $14 million this season, $15 million next season and $16 million in 2011. But given the thin states of both the summer trade market and 2009-10 free-agent market, he still would be attractive to contenders.
Just not as attractive as he once was.
Oswalt, after 10 starts, is in a downward trend. His current strikeout rate would be the second lowest of his career. His groundball rate would be the lowest, his line-drive rate the highest, according to Baseball Info Solutions. His ERA, home-run rate and pitches per inning all would represent career highs.
"Every great pitcher has two careers," one scout says. "He hasn't come up with really good secondary stuff to carry him to his next career phase when he loses his fastball. He hasn't lost his fastball, but it's nowhere near as effective. He has lost some movement."
Still, Oswalt touched 95-96 in his most recent start, and Brewers manager Ken Macha described him as "a strike-throwing machine." Oswalt might be as picky as Peavy in approving possible trade partners. He might bring less than the Astros believe he is worth.
No matter.
The Astros need to make him available, once and for all.