Adam Dunn's Asking Price

[love_that_reefer]

According to the Washington Post, free agent outfielder Adam Dunn's asking price is four years and $56 million.
The Nationals are the one team that has targeted Dunn all along, but they're not willing to go that high. He's reportedly been telling teams he won't move to first base, so that would rule out the Red Sox even if they could find a taker for Mike Lowell. Dunn is a bargain at anything less than $10 million per year, but he can thank Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi's infamous radio rant for the lack of league-wide interest.

WOW! Talk about wishes not coming true. Dunn is DH material and on a short term deal, Bobby Abreu is still a better option at this point. Abreu's price will have to drop as well in order to get a job. With guys like Giambi and Burrell taking lesser deals, Dunn might have to settle for a one year deal and hope the economy gets better. If Bowden isn't willing to spend on Adam Dunn and the Reds don't want him back, that should tell you a lot about how baseball views Adam Dunn. Dunn will give you a lot of homeruns and a lot of walks but sadly that comes with a ton of strikeouts and horrible defense.

[Hybrid]

I think Dunn will be lucky to get $8-10 mil per the way things are looking, and you are right, he may be better off signing a one year deal for now.
After Manny signs, I do think guys like Dunn, Abreu, etc. will find homes, but they won't get what they are looking for contract wise...not this year.

[HollywoodLeo]

What was J.P.'s "infamous radio rant"?

[NYgiantsfan5689]

JP called Adam Dunn a guy who plays with no effort and doesn't try. He said he wouldn't want him on his team. It was a ridiculous statement.

I'm gonna be totally honest here, I don't understand why teams wouldn't shell out the money for this guy, he's a great player, despite his strikeouts. I would pay up for him if I needed a big bat.

[Dam8610]

What was J.P.'s "infamous radio rant"?

The one where he basically called Adam Dunn a horrible investment.

[NYgiantsfan5689]

Here's the thread from it

http://www.strike3forums.com/forums/...no-reason.html

[Foster]

Jays notebook: Ricciardi trashes Adam Dunn on radio show - Posted Sports

JP, the Destroyer. He can kill a career, and a franchise...

[CrazyEights]

I don't know how much effect that radio rant has on the demand for Dunn. There never really seemed to be any demand for Dunn except in his own mind. There wasn't much demand for Dunn at the trade deadline either. If there was, then the Reds could have gotten a lot more value for him than they did. GM's have had a low opinion of Dunn for a long time, and it is just showing up in his demand now. I think it would be more accurate to say that JP's opinion reflects how the majority of the GM's have felt all along. They aren't just lemmings following his lead. Whether you think he is right or not, I do think most GMs have a similar opinion of Dunn, and have all along. I think the Reds would have traded him long ago if they could have gotten good value for him, but they could never find a taker that valued him as much as they did. I do think Dunn is worth at least $10Mil a year, and probably more. It all depends on the market though, and a lot of players are worth less in this market than they otherwise would have been. I agree that a one year deal is probably in his best interest. In this market, teams are leary of giving big contracts to players with a questionable past such as Dunn and Sheets. With Sheets, you have a pitcher with amazing talent, but that is also injury prone. With Dunn, you have a great power hitter, but his downside is that he hits for a low average, strikes out a lot, and isn't a good defender. We could debate how much affect his batting average and strike out total should have on his value, but most baseball general managers seem feel that it is a lot of baggage. In this market, it might just seem like too much of a risk for them to sign him to a huge contract.

[love_that_reefer]

JP called Adam Dunn a guy who plays with no effort and doesn't try. He said he wouldn't want him on his team. It was a ridiculous statement.

I'm gonna be totally honest here, I don't understand why teams wouldn't shell out the money for this guy, he's a great player, despite his strikeouts. I would pay up for him if I needed a big bat.

How exactly is Dunn a "great" player?

[NYgiantsfan5689]

.381 career OBP, .518 slugging, 100+ RBI's 4 of the last 5 seasons, 40 HR exactly the last 4 seasons and 46 in '04, at least a 127 OPS+ in his last 5 seasons and as high as 146, i'd say that's pretty damn ****ing great

average is overrated. he gets on base and drives in runs, that's really all that matters

[love_that_reefer]

He drives in far fewer runs than he should thanks to his massive strike out rate. He hits 40 bombs but can barely reach 100 RBI? And don;t even try and blame it on his team. He has plenty of chances and comes up short. Yes, he can hit the ball a mile but he is a DH playing the OF. Yes, he can get on base but he is very slow which diminishes his impressive walk totals. He cannot hit for average (still valid) and definitely cannot hit with RISP.

So basically Adam Dunn is a bad defender who can hit a lot of homers, gets on base but is very slow while on them, cannot hit for any kind of average, strikes out a ton and doesn;t collect a lot of hits but I am supposed to think he is "great"? If he is great, I guess Jason Giambi is too? No thanks. There is reason a lot of teams are shying away from Adam Dunn.

[Dam8610]

I'm surprised at some of the names still left on the market. I think some teams may get some bargain contributions out of this class.

[NYgiantsfan5689]

Orlando Hudson should have a team too. That's a bit ridiculous

[CrazyEights]

I think a lot of it is that players such as Hudson, Dunn, ect overvalued themselves at the beginning of the offseason. They used the traditional thought of waiting until the bigger players signed, and then they would get a better deal. Unfortunately for them, the economy fell flat right about the time, or at least it was most noticeable. Every year the free agent market is different, and it isn't always easy to predict the best way to get the best deal. A lot of players and their agents misread the market this year. In retrospect, players that signed with their former team at the end of the season or signed a big deal early on in the off season, ended up getting better deals. I don't ever remember so many good players still being unsigned this late in the offseason. I'm surprised more teams aren't jumping at these players, because they will likely get a better deal. Although, you have players like Dunn that think they will be able to get a $56Mil deal. I don't know what they are thinking. I can't see a team signing a player for that type of contract at this point in the off season. If the player was that desirable, then they probably would have been signed a month ago.

[Slyder]

Dunn is Dunn. The Enigma. Much time has been spent among Reds Circles about what Dunn's "actual" value is. I think he gets a bum rap on defense. He's 6'6" probably 260ish I dont care who you are youre going to look bad running out there regardless of how good of a job making plays you do. He's never going to win Gold Gloves but he's far from the worst in LF with the glove.

He's not a bat that can carry a team for very long, he would be a perfect complement much like Big Papi to Manny in Boston (for example). You can pretty much guarentee (Im leaving RBIs off for a minute) 40 HRs, 100 Runs, 100 walks, 150 ks, 140+ games. The guy is durable and can play through a lot of injuries. You stick him on a team thats willing to think outside the box with a lineup and I think you could have the leagues most dangerous #2 hitter in baseball.

RBI is such a team reliant stat that I try not to use it because you have managers who dont value OBP as much as others *cough Duhhhster cough* but if you have a guy whos even remotely competant leading off then he's in scoring position just by being on base with Dunn up. If pitchers try to pitch around him (or pitch to not make a mistake) then you put another guy on for most teams best hitter with his great eye and take better advantage of the walk.

Yes Dunn will k and k often thats a given with his size and swing. He gets lift when he makes contact so he's not going to be like Sean Casey or Brandon Phillips (40 GIDP in the past two years) . He won't ever be mistaken for Ricky Henderson but he wont run you out of innings. 75.6 career SB%, granted he might be "to big" to really steal any more but he has shown to be a decent guy on the base paths.

If you told me I could spend 90-100 mil and Dunn would eventually sign for close to what Burrell or Bradley got and you have a good/great hitter behind him I would do it in a heart beat.