Reds rebuilding from bottom up

[redsrbetter]

The Cincinnati Reds probably aren't to the point where they can be considered contenders, but based on their recent history, just heading in the right direction should be considered a huge plus.


A new owner and a new general manager are in place, and in their short time with the club, they've renewed hope among longtime Reds fans who want to know why they haven't put a winning team on the field in this millennium.
It's not owner Bob Castellini's physical presence at Spring Training and at Great American Ball Park that will make the ultimate difference in the club's progress in the immediate future. His faith in new GM Wayne Krivsky -- and his commitment to doing what is necessary to build the organization, from the Minor Leagues up -- will dictate how the new regime's legacy begins.

It doesn't take a genius to deduce what this team needs. The Reds finished eighth in the league in hitting and fifth in the National League Central standings last year. The problem is pitching, something the Reds had very little of in 2005. They finished dead last in the league with a 5.15 ERA, worse than the Rockies' 5.13 mark.

Only two teams in all of baseball were worse ERA-wise: Tampa Bay and Kansas City.
A few realities exist. The Reds' payroll is going to fall somewhere in the range of $60-65 million. Eric Milton, and his $25.5 million contract, probably isn't going away. Most of the cast of characters from last year's rotation is back. If the Reds are to have a good season, they'll have to look mostly from within.

The Reds don't have a great recent track record in terms of developing their own pitching talent. The last Reds pitcher who was groomed in the Cincinnati farm system and won 15 games in a single season was Tom Browning in 1990.

A 16-year drought seems a little extreme, until you consider that it's been even longer since any Reds pitcher, regardless of his origin, won 20 games. The last time was 1988, when Danny Jackson won 23.

Sure, they've had some good years in between. But the overall state of the team has moved backward in recent history, and the new regime has to change that. A complete overhaul isn't necessary, nor is it plausible. The Reds are going to have to first ask their current members to be better. Then they may consider looking for outside help for the rotation, although that's a big maybe.

This means that Milton has to be better than 8-15. It means that Harang and Brandon Claussen, who won 11 and 10 games in '05, respectively, have to build on that promise. Dave Williams, acquired in the unpopular Sean Casey trade, needs to produce.
"We had some ups and downs last year," Harang said. "We've got some veteran guys to fill in the bullpen. Starters have to step up and get us through six or seven innings and give our bullpen a chance to finish it."


While it's up to manager Jerry Narron to manipulate on-field activity on the big-league level, Krivsky and Castellini appear to have a side plan for the farm system.

Their first move was to buy the Florida State League's Sarasota franchise from the Boston Red Sox. Sarasota is the Reds' Spring Training home and, pending approval from MLB, the Minor League franchise will become a Reds affiliate. Improvements of the overall facility will follow. The Reds expect that the quality of talent that plays in Sarasota, as well as their other farm clubs, will also improve.

Krivsky, largely responsible for the success of the Minnesota Twins' system, knows how to build from within. His former employer had low revenues, low attendance and high expectations. And the Twins, despite the threat of contraction, won.

Castellini hired him to make the same thing happen in Cincinnati, sans the contraction issues, of course.

"They want to win," Krivsky said about the Reds, soon after he took this job. "They want to do it the right way. They're dedicated and committed to scouting and player development, which is how you build a frontline organization."

It's up to Krivsky to build the farm system, one that grooms players, not rushes them to the big leagues before it's time. In hindsight, promoting Ryan Wagner to the Majors in 2003, two months after he was drafted, probably wasn't the right move.
It is time for the Reds to make smart personnel moves, and that process started as soon as Krivsky was hired. A Reds turnaround isn't going to happen overnight, and it likely won't happen this year. But if they formulate a plan and stick with it, at least there is hope.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/NASAp...ives&fext=.jsp

[redsrbetter]

So what is the Reds’ plan?
Depth chart:
SP:
Harang 1yr/2.35 mill
Claussen 1yr/320 K
Milton 2yrs/8.5 mill (2006) 9 mill (2007) can become a FA after 2006 season
Williams 1yr/1.4 mill
Wilson 1yr/3.75 mill team option for 2007 worth 3.75 to 5.15 mill
-------------------------------
Gosling 1yr/317.5 K
Germano 1yr/MLC
Ramirez 1yr/MLC
Balfour 1yr/340 K
Hall 1yr/MLC
Kozlowski 1yr/MLC
Dumatrait 1yr/MLC
Phelps 1yr/MLC
Bailey 1yr/MLC
Wood
Chick
Pelland
Gonzalez

I think there are a whole lot of future options with our SP. The nucleus of Harang and Claussen is young. Unless Williams is average, we will likely not see him nest year. And if he is average, we could use him as a 5th starter. Milton may still be around and that could be either good or really bad. It may be nice to see the Reds bench him if he has a rough first few starts. Then he could use that FA option. Wilson is on his last season and I think he will be as good as gone.

This leaves only two guaranteed SP in our rotation with Harang and Claussen. Milton is still likely too. So we have room to add 2 more SP for next season. I think there are only a few in our system that may have a chance to break the rotation this year. Gosling, Germano, Ramirez, and Hall all have that opportunity and it is their time to make big things happen.

This season we are going to have to really hope that one of those four makes a huge improvement or that Dumatrait can continue to succeed enough to get a callup in September and really show what he has on the MLB level. If this does not happen over the course of the 2006 season, we will have to see what kind of magic Krivsky can work on the trade front.

RP:
Mercker 1yr/1.35 mill
Weathers 1yr/1.25 mill
Hammond 1yr/800K with 2 mill mutual option for 2007
Belisle 1yr/316 K
Burns 1yr deal
White 1yr/ 600-800 K
Coffey 1yr deal
Wagner 1yr/380 K
Shackelford 1yr deal
Simpson 1yr/318 K
Standridge 1yr deal
------------------------
Guevera

The relief pitching is an entire mix of young arms with veterans. Mercker, Weathers, Hammond, Burns, and White may all be on their last season with the Reds. This means the young guys like Belisle, Coffey, Wagner, Shackelford, Simpson and Standridge will have to make their impact this season.

If most of these six young arms can make their mark, and a few veterans can show that they still can pitch, we may have a good bullpen for a few years already. But that presents a whole lot of ifs. We really have to see the maturity in the young bullpen arms this season to hope for a better future. Otherwise, Krivsky may have to take money away from our SP need and look at bullpen help in FA after the 2006 season.

C:
LaRue 2yr/3.9 mill in 2006 and 5.2 mill in 2007
Valentin 1yr/1.15 mill
------------------------
Sardinha 1yr deal
Perez 1yr deal

The catching position looks to be a lock up for LaRue for the next few years. If he falls off, I believe that Valentin will continue to improve enough to handle an everyday job by the time Perez comes up to back him up.

If LaRue can be locked up after the 2007 season, we should not have to worry about the catcher’s position for a while. But when we do, Krivsky is going to have to find one that is talented with the bat. This year’s draft would be a great time to find such a catcher. This way we will have a new catcher ready in around 4 years to take LaRue place if he gets resigned for a few more years.

1B:
Dunn 2yr/7.5 mill in 2006 and 10.5 mill in 2007
Hatteberg 1yr/750 K
----------------------
Votto 1yr/MLC

Dunn should be the franchise player for this team. We should be locked up for a long time at 1B. But Dunn may opt to go back to the outfield some day. This means Votto will have to be ready.

Krivsky should plan on signing Dunn to a long-term contract after the 2007 season. If he does that, Votto can still come in and play 1B and give us better options for the outfield. Or else, Votto could be used in a trade.

2B:
Freel 2yr/1.3 mill in 2006 and 1.7 mill in 2007
Aurilia 1yr/1.3 mill with a mutual option for 2007 worth 2 mill.
Womack 2yr/2 mil in both 2006 and 2007 (900 K in 2006 is payed for by Yankees)
-------------------
Bergolla 1yr deal

Freel should be this team’s starting 2B. But it will likely go to Aurilia. Both are good options for the next few years. Womack is simply in the way and should only see time as a pinch runner or injury insurance. Krivsky would be smart to get rid of him and his contract soon.

Bergolla looks to be a bright spot for the future for the 2B position. We have to hope and see a great season from him in Louisville. This way he can come up and be a backup for the 2007 season or possibly even start.

3B:
Encarnacion 1yr deal
Aurilia 1yr/1.3 mill with a mutual option for 2007 worth 2 mill.
-----------------
Holbert 1yr deal

Encarnacion will be the present and future of the 3B position. Krivsky should have nothing to worry about any time soon for this position. Aurilia will be nice insurance in case of injury and should definitely not take any starts away from Encarnacion.

Holbert is a speedy infielder who may have a future in this organization. But it would likely just be a utility role unless something happens to Encarnacion or Lopez at SS.

SS:
Lopez 1yr/2.7 mill
Aurilia 1yr/1.3 mill with a mutual option for 2007 worth 2 mill
Olmedo 1yr/322 K
----------------------------
Machado 1yr deal
Rosales

The shortstop position should be a lock as well. Lopez should look to get a long-term contract if he has another big season. Krivsky should start looking his way for that contract very soon before he starts to get real expensive. Aurilia will be nice insurance in case of injury and should definitely not take any starts away from Lopez.

Olmedo is a very nice fit for the backup shortstop position, but Aurilia will be in his way. Rosales looks to have a bright future and could be an option down the road if something happens to Lopez or as trade bait. It would be perfectly fine to get rid of Machado.

LF:
Pena 1yr/1.25 mill
Denorfia 1yr deal
Freel 2yr/1.3 mill in 2006 and 1.7 mill in 2007
-----------------
Stratton 1yr/MLC

Pena is a very bright spot with all the potential in the world. If he achieves that potential, LF will be locked up for the future. Krivsky is going to have to look his direction soon as well if he wants to lock him up for a long time.

Denorfia is a nice backup for any outfield position. With a great year like last season, he could become trade bait because of the mighty outfield depth the Reds already have.

CF:
Griffey Jr. 3yr/12.5 mill per yr team option for 2009.
Denorfia 1yr deal
Freel 2yr/1.3 mill in 2006 and 1.7 mill in 2007
-----------------------
Bruce 1yr/MLC
Szymanski 1yr/MLC

Griffey stepped it back up last year. We should be fine through 2008 with him and having Denorfia or Freel available to back him up.

The future is just as bright in CF with Bruce or Szymanski. Bruce has the higher ceiling, but he may eventually move to RF. Either way, or present and future look secure in CF.

RF:
Kearns 1yr/1.85 mill
Denorfia 1yr deal
Freel 2yr/1.3 mill in 2006 and 1.7 mill in 2007
-----------------------
Bruce 1yr/MLC

Right Field may become wide open if Kearns does not deliver this season. He is another guy with a lot of potential, but he is going to have to show it now.

Bruce is a bright spot for the future here as well. The only problem in RF is if Kearns just does not get it done. It will be a while before Bruce is ready, so Kearns has to be the man now or else Denorfia or Freel are going to have to step in.

Krivsky may have to settle for Kearns for the next few years and if he blows up he can be thankful. I would wait for Bruce to come up and claim his future at this position before I would look at Kearns for a LTC.

What it all boils down to:
SP: we need two next season and 3 after the 2007 season.
RP: wide open as we hope the young arms can come through
C: LaRue has it locked down for a few years, but we have to look for a future catcher soon
1B: Dunn can hold it down for a long time to come
2B: Freel and Aurilia are nice stopgaps for Bergolla
3B: Encarnacion can hold it down for a long time to come
SS: Lopez can hold it down for a long time to come
LF: Pena should hold it down for a long time to come
CF: Griffey is a great stopgap for Szymanski
RF: Kearns is a nice stopgap for Bruce

We likely have a good future with the position players of this team as long as Krivsky can lock them up before they get too expensive. This is with exception to the catcher position and possibly 2B.

I’ll say that Krivsky’s future should have him drafting starting pitchers and a catcher this season. Look to make a trade with any of our positions that have a bright future to take its spot (particularly RF, CF, and possibly 2B) for a SP. Then inform Castellini that we need to raise the payroll a bit to sign Lopez to a long-term contract and sign a FA SP this offseason.

[Geki Ace]

That is some bloody horrible analysis and shows a lack of knowledge about how to build a good system.

[redsrbetter]

OK lets talk about this:

SP:

Do you agree that Harang and Claussen are as close to a fit for the future?

[volzok]

Way to work breaking all of that down redsrbetter. I agree with Harang and Claussen being in the future. I think at some point this year we will see Germano up in Cincy. But from there its really a toss up. A lot will depend on what Dumatrait, Kozlowski and others do at the minor league level this season.

[redsfan28]

Harang is, quite simply, the best pitcher on the roster. If he is on his game, his stuff is filthy. We need to lock him up for a while.

I don't think CF is in as good of a postition as it seems. Yes Griffey kicked it up a notch last year, but that's because he remained healthy for the most part. I contend that he is one major injury away from retiring. As much as I love Griffey, he's a ticking time bomb injury-wise. I'm not sold on Denorfia and I really don't like Freel in CF either. If the CF of the future is 3 to 4 years away, then we had better pray that Griffey stays healthy or we will be in CF trouble.

As far as LF, Wily Mo is a butcher. He's worse than Dunn was. Plus, he had better learn how to hit breaking stuff. Otherwise, pitchers will continue to throw him good breaking pitches to get him out. He'll never see a fastball.

RF concerns me as well. Kearns is not the same guy he was as a prospect. Ray King destroying his shoulder really stunted his growth. Plus, he seems discontent at times, which is a problem. While I'm not sold on Denorfia, I wouldn't be opposed to replacing Kearns with him if Kearns struggles.

1B is okay for the future.

2B had better be Freel's to lose.

SS is good to go.

3B is good to great, depending on how EdE develops in the majors.

C is unsettled if Narron decides to platoon LaRue and Valentin again, which LaRue wasn't thrilled with last year. While Valentin is probably the better hitter, LaRue is a little better defensively. I think Valentin should start, but that's just me.

Pitching: We need some. Its Harang and everyone else. Milton blows and probably is as bad as he was last year. Paul Wilson isn't the best, but depending on how he comes back from his injury, he might be ok. Claussen has shown flashes, but is too inconsistent. Dave Williams is an unknown quantity. He's probably somewhere between bad and mediocre. The bullpen is ok. I have confidence in their ability to finish games. Homer Bailey may get a September call-up. He is definitely our future #1. Other than him, we got nothing down on the farm.

Bottom line: 72 to 75 wins.

[NFLman2033]

That is some bloody horrible analysis.

I am going to disagree with you, I think his analysis was very good, he broke everything down very well, i think you can only really just disagree with his conclussions.. and even there I don't disagree strongly, just in a few areas.. Such as he did a really good job breaking down contract length, but didn't really show a lot of age, and in correlation to age vs loss of ability, as well as talk about the talent of some of these players.. now granted most of us know that some of these guys that we have will never amount to anything.. for instance I think we are in Terrible shape at Catcher.. LaRue and Valentin are pretty much done in terms of improving, i don't see them ever getting any better, and the guys we have have never done anything in the minors to give us an indication that they can do anything at the Major League Level.. 2B has no one under the age of 30 at the Major League level, with our intire future depending on bergolla who was very lack luster last season in his stint with the ball club.. I do however agree with a lot of his analysis in other areas.. for instance, I agree that this is the year that one of our Younger RP's needs to step up and make a name for themselves.. so we can have a closer.. I also agree with the SP's.. we have Claussen and Harang, and forced to have Milton, after this season 2 spots up for grabs as well as 3 if Milton doesn't work out after that.. Too bad, I still don't see a lot of guys that I am excited about.. at least not yet, we do still have a whole season to see what these guys can do.