Predictions to the Winter Meetings?

[redsrbetter]

Well, we all know that we will still have DanO come Dec. 5th. So, what are we expecting him to do? Anybody think that he is making sure something happens with our outfield situation before the meetings come to a close? He has his job on the line and may be feeling the pressure to do something big. Or he may be feeling like he has to take his time, like always, and make sure his move is the right one. But this could cause too many missed opportunities. Any predictions on who should or may be talking to DanO during these meetings? We should look at a GM that needs a strong outfielder and is willing to trade a SP. Who fits this mold? Lets come up with the greatest thoughts possible right now.

[redsrbetter]

Boston is in need of a 1B and I have seen a rumor that Overbay may be discussed for Clement. What about Casey for Clement? Casey contract is pretty huge (7.8 million) and Clement would be equally as expensive (6.5 million in 2005). This looks good all around for both teams IMO.

Clement has a 2-seamer that acts as a sinker which is much needed at GABP as well. If DanO doesn't see something from Boston in the first few minutes of the meetings, he should approach them on this first hand.

The Problem: Overbay comes a heck of a lot cheaper than Casey with a $446,000 salary in 2005. I still think that casey has the better bat though. Overbay hit 19HR as Casey only had 9. But the .312 BA Casey had vs. Overbay's .276 is a nice factor in our favor. This may depend if Boston is going to be picky in the power department with the likely departure of Manny.

The bottom line on this thought is that DanO has got to look at it and propose the suggestion to the Red Sox.

[Geki Ace]

Overbay is three years younger than Casey and better defensively. He's about equal with a healthy Casey in terms of power, with more walks but a lower average. And he's making over $7 million less per year. There's no way we'd get Clement for Casey straight-up.

[redsfan28]

Prediction 1: The New York Yankees acquire CF Ken Griffey, Jr. from the Cincinnati Reds for a jock strap and a bucket of ice.

Prediction 2: The Houston Astros acquire LF/1B Adam Dunn from the Cincinnati Reds for SP Brandon Backe and two minor leaguers. (Wish it was Dunn for Oswalt)

Prediction 3: (Well, its more of a wish that will never come true) The Cincinnati Reds terminate the contract of GM Dan O'Brien and sign GM Theo Epstein to a 3 year deal. The Cincinnati Reds terminate the contract of manager Jerry Narron and sign manager Lou Piniella to a 3 year deal.

[Maximillian]

Well if your serious perdiction #1, the jock strap, would probably be Carl Pavano and the bucket of ice could be Christian Garcia or Phillip Hughes. If #1 goes through then #2 is dead. Can't see the Reds moving both their left-handed power bats. If one goes the other stays. I really like Perdiction #3.

[Wally Mo Pena]

i agree with max that we won't see jr and dunn both traded (can you imagine kearns, pena, and denorfia?) first off. After that i think there's too much in the air to say anything very certainly, so these are the options i could see, and how likely i think they are.

Grifey traded for salary dumping purposes, no major league starter included. Not likely since i don't think that there's anyone that the reds are looking at to give griffey's money to, and i don't think they're looking to cut salary, so give it to griffey.

Kearns or Pena traded for mid-level youngish SP. Here are some possibilities in decending order of how much i would want them, and probably how hard it would be for the reds to get them:

D Cabrera
J Towers (may be easier if Jays get burnett)
K Lohse
B Arroyo
B Chen

All of those guys make the reds better, and most of them have the potential to be better than they have been so far (cabrera and arroyo especially) but none of them are aces. Harang, Claussen, and any of those guys gives us a pretty respectable middle of the rotation. Too bad it would be the front of our rotation.

This option seems like the most likely to me. I could definitely see the red sox coming after Pena if Manny gets dealt, offering Arroyo and a prospect and laughing all the way to the playoffs when Wily puts up 40 HRs for the next 10 years.

Dunn traded for high level youngish SP. Again some possibbilities:

S Baker
B Zito
J Blanton
B Webb
A Eaton

Most of these deals would have to be a lot more complex, and that's enough reason right there for me to think they are less likely. As talked about in another thread, Dunn For Zito might not take too much extra compensation one way or the other, but the other deals would all take a lot of money/players being added. For instance, i'd love to get Baker from the twins, but i'd want another player (maybe JC Romero) since he's not the proven commoditiy that Dunn is, while the twins would probably want money and maybe a prospect since they are loosing a younger guy and taking on a lot of salary.

I would rather DanO stayed away from these deals though, since we know what we're going to get from Dunn for a long time to come, and there's just too much risk for a dolt like our GM. You really have to grow your own aces (or trade for them as prospects) most of the time. I think he should go with one of the Pena/Kearns deals if he can get one that looks especially good.

Then we hope that two of Milton/Wilson/Belisle/Hudson/Hancock/Ramirez/Germano step up and give decent performances.

It can't be said enough with our offense: We don't need to dominate with our starters, we need to stay in the game. Milton had an ERA of 6.50 for pete's sake! If we got someone who could go out and consistently put up and ERA of 4.50 or below (which anyone listed could), we'd have been in pretty decent shape. If harang and Claussen can continue to be around 4 with the ERA and everyone else can stay under 5, the reds will be competitive.

[Geki Ace]

I don't see much purpose in trading Dunn for a year of Barry Overrated Zito (Haha, that's puntastic!). He'll command a deal like what Burnett's getting this year as soon as he becomes a free agent. Baker and Blanton are both similar to what we already have in Harang, minus the awesomeness. I don't know where you're getting the idea that Eaton is anything special, since he's 28, gives up a fair amount of longballs, doesn't strike out any impressive numbers, and has never put up an ERA under 4.08. And I have to question his durability as well. I'd love Webb, but I don't see the D-Backs letting him go for anything, really.

[redsrbetter]

I agree with you guys a lot. I really do not want to trade Dunn despite all my talks of possibilities and what not. Yes, Dunn would bring an ace, but I see DanO getting another Milton for him. Imagine if we were excited about a guy like Zito coming in and him falling apart at GABP. We would really miss Dunn then.

Wally made that excellent point that we just need guys to have a breakout season and to trade Pena/Kearns for some talented young prospects. Honestly, IMO this is the best way to go. Signing Dunn long-term will benice as well. But I don't see us getting anyone that will help this team now without trading Dunn and even that would be a mistake.

[Wally Mo Pena]

like i said, i don't think the dunn deals are going to be good for the reds right now, but baker and blanton being the same as Harang? that's a pretty big stretch. I don't think Zito is overrated, but your point about only having him for one year is important.

i have really liked arroyo at times, and if he commanded his fastball a little better he could really succeed.

[Wally Mo Pena]

What about Dunn for the Twins Scott Baker and Kyle Lohse? I've been debating this one with a twins fan friend of mine, and i'm starting to sort of like the simplicity of it. Two young starters to the reds, a big bat to the twins, who basically don't even feel the loss of the two starters, since they have 7 starters who are as good as our ace.

maybe we can use the money saved on Dunn to pick up a decent reliever or a back up IF.

Harang
Baker
Claussen
Lohse
Wilton

Freel
FeLo
Wily Mo
Grif
Kearns
Casey
EdE
Larue

It might not be the best deal in the world, but it could work.

[Geki Ace]

I like Arroyo's potential, and the Red Sox could afford to give him up, especially now that they have Beckett. I'd love to make a run at him. As for Zito, I think he's a good pitcher, but he's not an elite one in the league like some people make him out to be and he's very prone to giving up the longball, which wouldn't go over to well at GAB. I love his durability, but I don't think he could dominate for us and he'd essentially be a rental, which rules him out.

Blanton and Baker, on the other hand, are similar to Harang in terms of stuff. They're not overpowering pitchers and get their outs on control more than stuff. I like them both, but not at the price of Dunn. The Lohse deal is okay, but I don't think he's really that much better than a healthy Paul Wilson for this year and he'd also probably be a rental as well.

[redsfan28]

Honestly, the Reds aren't going to do anything (except trading one of the outfielders, probably WMP or Griffey). DanO, Narron, et al. are all in a lame-duck situation due to the new ownership group. Why do anything now when you can wait and see what the new owners want to do.