Six questions from John Fay

[Wally Mo Pena]

Six questions

1 - Can the pitching improve enough for the Reds to be competitive? One insider has a simple formula to make the Reds competitive in the NL Central: Add a starter better than Aaron Harang and add a reliever better than David Weathers. It's feasible to accomplish, if the Reds are willing to deal one of their outfielders, and they have money to spend.

2 - How will the crowded outfield situation be resolved? Neither Wily Mo Peña nor Austin Kearns is satisfied with the current arrangement. It seems like an obvious move to trade one of them or Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr. or Sean Casey. The Reds have more than enough offense and not enough pitching.

3 - Who's going to close? David Weathers has done a decent job after taking over for Danny Graves, converting 15 of 19 save chances going into the weekend. The Reds don't have a young pitcher ready for the role. Will they sign someone and plug them in?

4 - Who's going to be in charge? We know Dan O'Brien is back as the general manager. We know Jerry Narron is back as the field manager. But the club, or at least 51.5 percent of it, is for sale. There's speculation that Carl Lindner will cede control to the new owners. That could have huge ramifications on the way the club is run.

5 - Is Eddie ready? Third baseman Edwin Encarnacion looked like an All-Star at times after taking over for Joe Randa. He looked lost at other times. The kid has pop - over half of his hits are for extra bases. But he has struck out once every 3.5 at-bats.

6 - Will the Reds sign Adam Dunn long-term? Dunn could break the bank in arbitration. You don't want to go to an arbitrator with a guy who made $4.6 million and had the power numbers Dunn did.

Will he stay or go?

Rich Aurilia: There's a mutual option for $2 million. Short of guaranteeing Aurilia a starting job, it's going to be hard to get him to re-up. Aurilia is so valuable - club-best .349 with runners in scoring position and solid defensively at three positions - that Jerry Narron would be wise to make a case to get Aurilia back.

Ramon Ortiz: Ortiz had a run of eight good starts before looking bad recently. His option would pay him $4.5 million for next season, and four spots in the rotation are taken. He's almost certainly gone.

Jason LaRue: The Reds might be tempted to non-tender LaRue, who could make $6 million or so if offered arbitration, but only if there's a money crunch. LaRue and Javier Valentin both have had good years. Neither likely would be as good without the other. Narron can give them plenty of rest and pick matchups with opposing pitchers.

Wily Mo Peña/Austin Kearns: Most people think the Reds need to move an outfielder. GM Dan O'Brien isn't one of them. He likens the Peña-Kearns combo to the LaRue-Valentin duo - a success. But O'Brien's baseball people may convince him to move an outfielder. If Narron gets a vote, Peña goes. His defense just hasn't gotten any better.

E-mail jfay@enquirer.com

[redsrbetter]

This is a perfect format for the offseason questioning. It is going to be long and perhaps a fun time over the next 6 months or so. So lets take a look at how us reds fans feel about these questions.

Here are my thoughts:

1. Can the pitching improve enough for the Reds to be competitive?

With the new ownership likely to hold the reigns in the decision making process, we will never know how to feel about this until we get to know what they want. I would hope that the new ownership would come out wanting to make a difference and see what they can do in one year. Maybe even raise the payroll a bit more! If so, then we may get a better arm. But, we still have DanO to worry about making the decision on who to get. Hopefully he has learned from his mistakes.

2. How will the crowded outfield situation be resolved?

My guess is that Pena is gone. I think Narron feels better about Kearns who can be seen as a guy that can make contact better than Pena and who is a lot better in the outfield. Pena may mash, but we still have Dunn and Griffey for that. Not to mention that some of us still have not given up on Kearns.

3. Who's going to close?

A lot of these questions can be answered over the offseason, but I don't think this one will. I believe that they will try and see what Wagner, Booker, or Coffey can do during the 2006 ST and hope to have Weathers back to be in a set-up role.

4. Who's going to be in charge?

Whatever happens with the ownership, I hope it is for the best of this organization. I don't see Lindner raising the payroll again after the mess this season. So, I kind of hope he does hand over control of the team. And maybe, just maybe, the new regime may want to get rid of Allen? We could on wish.

5. Is Eddie ready?

Maybe not. But what better option do w have? Well, we could resign Aurilia who had a good season (God I hate saying that). I don't like this because EdE needs to stick with it and he will eventually be better than anything Aurilia can do. Try and move Freel to 3B and see what Bergolla can do. But we remember what it was like having Freel start at 3B a lot last season, right? And this will give us another guy who will not be ready to start in Bergolla. This is another no go for me. Our best option is sticking with EdE and watch him become a good player. It will just take some time.

6. Will the Reds sign Adam Dunn long-term?

My guess is yes. And they better do so before they lose him for good. But this could be their answer to the outfield jam as well. They may want to get rid of him to use that money to buy a pitcher instead. Do they like Denorfia or Stratton that much? If so, they may figure that one of those two would be valuable in case Griffey or Kearns goes down again. I say, sign Dunn long term.

Will he stay or go?

Aurilia- I wish he would go honestly, but he will likely stay and will take away money that we would need for pitching. we don't need another middle infielder with Freel and Lopez already a viable establishment.

Ortiz- I wish he would go, and he is likely gone as well. No way this team should pay for his mediocrity any longer. Use that saved money for a better arm.

LaRue- I wish he would stay and I think he is gone. He is a tough guy that has finally shown some serious strides at the plate, but Valentin is a cheaper option and may take control of the starting job solely on account of money. This money better be used for pitching!


Pena/Kearns- I think Pena is gone and Kearns will stay.

[Wally Mo Pena]

i think the two guys in the AFL (bubba nelson and allan simpson) have a good chance of making the reds pen and maybe being the closer at some point next year. Simpson may never get it, but if he figures something out he's could be turnbow overnight. All it takes to become a great closer when you throw 97 is a decent off speed pitch and good comand.

weathers will probably start out as the closer because the reds have no imagination, unless he has a bad spring. then it will be a comittee for a while.

assuming the reds carry 12 pitchers like we usually do, i think pen will look like:

sure things:
weathers
mercker
coffey
belisle
shackleford

probablies:
wagner
simpson
hancock

[Geki Ace]

We better see Wagner next year, and I'm thinking Luke Hudson as the last guy in the pen. We need someone who can make some spot starts, and I prefer Hudson to Hancock.

[Wally Mo Pena]

why hudson over hancock after this season?

[Geki Ace]

Hudson looked good as a reliever and his stuff is too good to not use. If he can improve the control on his fastball over the winter, I think he could be a pretty damn good reliever.

[Wally Mo Pena]

the releif appearance that got hudson most of his innings was esentially a start, when he came in to relieve milton in the first inning and went 6.

other than that he had two 2IP relief appearances. Granted he didn't give up any runs, but it's not exactly overwhelming evidence.

Hancock certainly doesn't have overwhelming evidence, but 14 IP in 11 appearances with one walk and a 1.93 ERA is very good and a little more believable.

Here's hoping one of them can be successful next year, since we were hoping they were both going to contribute this year and neither really did.

[Geki Ace]

Hancock just strikes me as exceptionally hittable, which is something I really don't want out of the bullpen. I suppose he could be a bit like Coffey was for us this year, as opposed to Hudson, who would probably be more like Standridge. I just like Hudson's upside more.

[Geki Ace]

On a completely unrelated note, what about Kyle Farnsworth? I know there's pretty much no hope of us signing him, but he could make a pretty damn nice closer for us, and when Wilson sucks it up, someone can put him in line.

[Wally Mo Pena]

f farnsworth. i hate that guy. he got in another fight this year too. And everyone talks about how he kicked pauls butt, and yes, he did tackle him. But look at where that fight took place. Two steps outside of the batters box! When have you ever heard of a pitcher charging a batter? not the kind of guy i want on my team or in the league, i was disappointed he had any success this year.

[Geki Ace]

I don't give a shit if he kicks Paul Wilson's (or anybody else's) ass. He's got closer stuff, he wouldn't cost nearly as much as a closer like Billy Wagner would, and he can actually throw more than 93 MPH, which is pretty much the limit for the rest of the Reds staff.