Since DanO didn't trade griffey this year, you have to doubt that he'll try to move him this winter.
That leaves Kearns, Dunn, and Wily Mo, and one has to be shipped out.
The only reason you would trade Dunn would be money, and with Graves and others coming off the books, i think it's safe to believe that a deal will be made. How long and for how much, who knows, but dunn stays.
So now it comes to Kearns of Pena, and here's my two cents.
Kearns this year has hit .237 .327 .436 .763 with 37 xbhits (15 HR) and 61 RBI in 100 games.
Wily Mo has hit .255 .304 .497 .801 with 37 xbh (20 HR) and 53 RBI adjusted to 100 games.
Pretty darn similar. Kearns gets on more, pena has more HR power, kearns makes up for it a little with xbhits, a little more with his ability to drive runs in, and certainly more with his defense.
The pure OPS guys might give Wily the edge, people who look at defense more and like situation stats like RBI might give kearns the edge, but either way, it's dead close.
The problem with just looking at the numbers though, is it can lead you to believe that you are comparing players who are the same in other ways, and in this case, that is not at all true.
Kearns is 25 and has spent the appropriate time in the minor leagues to have developed. He has a long injury history and a documented poor attitude (though this may have turned around), and he makes $930,000.
Wily Mo on the other hand is 23 and didn't get the proper seasoning in the minors, so it's fair to say that he's more like the normal 21 or 22 year old, in other words much earlier on in his development. It has been reported that he works very hard, even though he has rarely gotten regular playing time, and he makes $440,000.
This tells me that it should be kearns who goes. Wily mo could be signed to 5 year deal this winter for not much more than 15 mil, and in that time, if he progresses like a normal 22 yr old, we would have the most cost effective power hitter in the league.
You have to think about Wily like EdE. If EdE came up and had an OPS over .800, people would be freaking out over him. Not because that's the best anyone has ever done, but what it would say about his potential and likely development. That's Wily right now.