When Carl Lindner led the charge that bought Marge Schott out of her majority ownership of the Reds, he seemed like a white knight charging in to save the team.
In 1999, Lindner’s first year as the team’s CEO, Cincinnati went 96-57 and lost a National League wild-card playoff game to the Mets. Before his second year, the Reds landed Ken Griffey Jr. in a trade with the Mariners. With a push for a new stadium getting underway, the club’s future seemed bright.
But Griffey got hurt, manager Jack McKeon was let go in a messy squabble after the 96-win season and the Reds quickly found themselves near the NL Central’s basement, dreaming of a .500 season. Cincinnati has endured its worst stretch in 50 years, putting up losing records for five straight seasons.
If there’s any hope for the franchise now, it’s the thought that a new ownership group, led by local businessman Robert Castellini (a minority investor in the Cardinals), will provide the financial backing and the direction to get the Reds back on track. By the time the sale was announced in November, Linder was a lightning rod for fan dissension.
There’s plenty of work to be done. The Reds got a short-term attendance jump and some increased revenues out of the move to the Great American Ball Park in 2003. But their payroll remains in the bottom half of the NL, and a $19 million spending spree before the 2005 season proved foolish. Cincinnati lavished nearly $35 million in contracts on Eric Milton, Ramon Ortiz and Paul Wilson, who went a combined 18-31, 6.15. Milton’s 6.47 ERA nearly set a record for worst ever by an NL starter.
The blame for the misguided pitching binge can be pointed squarely at the Reds’ inability to develop starting pitching in recent years. The farm system has delivered plenty of outfielders (Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena) and enough other position players to form the building blocks of a contender. But being a Cincinnati pitching prospect has been hazardous. Ricardo Aramboles, Bobby Basham, Phil Dumatrait, Richie Gardner, Chris Gruler, Josh Hall, Ty Howington, Luke Hudson and Thomas Pauly all have had their careers delayed or derailed by arm problems.
In an attempt to stanch the bleeding, general manager Dan O’Brien instituted a tandem-starter system with strict 75-pitch limits for the lower levels of the system. That didn’t stop Gardner or Pauly from going down in 2005, but the Reds believe they’re cutting down on the number of injuries.
The added caution, plus Cincinnati’s emphasis on adding quality arms to the system in recent drafts, could be a key to turning the team around. But while Homer Bailey, Travis Wood and Rafael Gonzalez give the team hope for the future, they’re at least a few years away. The Reds will have to plug holes from outside the system, as few prospects in the higher levels are ready to contribute.
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1. HOMER BAILEY, rhp Age: 19 Ht: 6-3 Wt: 190 B-T: R-R
Drafted: La Grange (Texas) High, 2004 (1st round) Signed by: Mike Powers
Background: Bailey has been pitching in pressure games since before he started shaving. He outdueled Ryan Wagner in the Texas 3-A state championship game as a freshman, and capped his high school career with a second state title as a senior. He ranked No. 1 on this list a year ago after signing for a $2.3 million bonus as the seventh overall pick in 2004, when he was also named BA’s High School Player of the Year. The Reds are exercising extreme caution with him, hoping he can avoid the injury bug that has claimed so many of their best pitching prospects in recent years. He pitched just 12 innings after signing in 2004, and was limited by a tandem-starter system with a strict 75-pitch limit in 2005. He worked six innings in a start only once all season and went as many as five innings in just five other outings, yet still managed to claim the title of top pitching prospect in the low Class A Midwest League. He was sidelined for a couple of weeks in April as he worked back from minor knee surgery, a problem that had nagged him since high school. While his first full season was unremarkable statistically, he showed glimpses of his promise in the final month with a pair of scoreless five-inning outings, including an 11-strikeout two-hitter.
Strengths: Bailey has front-of-the-rotation stuff. He’s armed with two plus pitches—a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 96-97 with good life, and a hard 12-to-6 curveball with potential to be a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He pounds the bottom of the strike zone and usually hits his spots. His control will be another plus. Though he did issue more than his share of walks in 2005, the Reds attribute that to their insistence that he work on his secondary pitches. A former basketball player, Bailey is a natural athlete with an effortless arm action and clean delivery that bode well for future projection. He should get stronger, as there’s room to pack more weight on his 6-foot-3, 190-pound frame.
Weaknesses: Bailey’s changeup always will lag behind his two knockout pitches. It’s presently a below-average pitch with just a little sink. He did make it a point to throw the changeup more in 2005, and he did a better job of delivering it with the same arm speed he uses with his fastball. Bailey doesn’t always stay on top of his curveball. He also needs to improve his consistency and show that he can pitch effectively on nights where he doesn’t have his best stuff. Like many dominant high school starters, he didn’t have to work on such nuances as holding runners and quickening his move to the plate. He has made steady improvement in both areas, and he has addressed his rhythm and tempo on the mound. Bailey has admitted that baseball is more of a job than a passion. To achieve his potential as an ace, he’ll have to stay focused as he moves up the ladder.
The Future: While the Reds have yet to turn Bailey loose, they may challenge him with a jump to Double-A Chattanooga in 2006. Though he’s not on the 40-man roster, he has been invited to big league camp to get a taste of what awaits him. He could be poised for a breakthrough season.
2005 Club (Class) W L ERA G GS CG SV IP H HR BB SO AVG
Dayton (Lo A) 8 4 4.43 28 21 0 0 104 89 5 62 125 .232
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2. JAY BRUCE, of Age: 18 B-T: L-L Ht: 6-2 Wt.: 206
Drafted: HS—Beaumont, Texas, 2005 (1st round) Signed by: Brian Wilson
Background: Bruce went from unknown to prospect during the summer of 2004, and his surge continued last spring as he emerged as the cream of a quality crop of Texas high school outfielders. He went No. 12 to the Reds and signed for $1.8 million. He ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the Rookie-level Pioneer League in his debut.
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Strengths:
Bruce draws comparisons to Larry Walker and Jeremy Hermida for his sweet stroke, above-average arm and athleticism. He profiles as a power-hitting right fielder, but the Reds intend to keep him in center until he grows out of the position. He can turn on a fastball, but he also has shown the ability to use the entire field with good bat speed. He has plus speed and good overall instincts.
Weaknesses:
Like many young players, Bruce needs to work on the finer aspects of the game, such as reading pitchers and honing his basestealing technique. He occasionally gets antsy at the plate instead of sitting back and waiting on pitches to drive.
The Future:
Bruce will make his full-season debut at low Class A Dayton. A five-tool talent, his bat will dictate how rapidly he advances.
2005 Club (Class) AVG OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
GCL Reds (R) .270 .331 .500 122 29 33 9 2 5 25 11 31 4 6
Billings (R) .257 .358 .457 70 16 18 2 0 4 13 11 22 2 2
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3. TRAVIS WOOD, lhp Age: 19 B-T: R-L Ht: 6-0 Wt.: 165
Drafted: HS—Alexander, Ark., 2005 (2nd round) Signed by: Mike Keenan
Background: Wood is the highest-drafted Arkansas high school pitcher since the Reds took Dustin Moseley in 1999’s supplemental first round. Wood intrigued teams by reaching 95 mph with his fastball as the draft approached, and he dominated two Rookie leagues after signing for $600,000.
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Strengths:
Wood’s changeup drops off the table and already rates as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. He fools hitters by repeating the same arm speed and motion as when he throws his fastball. He regularly hit 93-94 mph and threw to both sides of the plate with good life during the summer. He also features a cutter.
Weaknesses:
Wood’s curveball isn’t as developed as his other pitches. The Reds have made refining his curve a point of emphasis, and they promoted him to Rookie-level Billings to work with curveball specialist Butch Henry. Wood has some effort in his delivery.
The Future:
Wood aced his introduction to pro ball and seems more than ready for low Class A. He has considerable upside, though coming up with a reliable breaking ball will be crucial.
2005 Club (Class) W L ERA G GS CG SV IP H HR BB SO AVG
GCL Reds (R) 0 0 0.75 8 7 0 0 24 13 0 7 45 .157
Billings (R) 2 0 1.82 6 4 0 0 25 15 0 13 22 .174
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4. B.J. SZYMANSKI, of Age: 23 B-T: b-R Ht: 6-5 Wt.: 215
Drafted: Princeton, 2004 (2nd round) Signed by: Mike Misuraca
Background: A two-sport star at Princeton, Szymanski was the football team’s leading receiver and led the baseball team to the Ivy League title as a junior in 2003-04. Already lacking experience thanks to his dual-sport commitment, he has been hampered by injuries as a pro. A quadriceps injury shortened his 2004 debut, and he missed time in 2005 because of arthroscopic knee surgery and a broken hand.
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Strengths:
When healthy, Szymanski showcases three impact tools, including explosive raw power from both sides of the plate. He has 30-homer potential in the majors. A chiseled athlete, he can fly around the bases and cover the gaps in center field. His arm is average.
Weaknesses:
Szymanski’s swing gets long, and strikeouts and a lower batting average will be a tradeoff for his power. He’s still raw and must improve in the fine points of the game, such as getting jumps and running the bases. Injuries have limited him to just 272 pro at-bats.
The Future:
Coming into 2005, Szymanski looked poised for a breakout season. Ticketed for high Class A Sarasota, he’s again a prime candidate if he can stay in the lineup.
2005 Club (Class) AVG OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Dayton (Lo A) .262 .332 .471 191 32 50 8 1 10 26 21 57 7 1
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5. CHRIS DENORFIA, of Age: 25 B-T: R-R Ht: 6-1 Wt.: 185
Drafted: Wheaton (Mass.), 2002 (19th round) Signed by: John Brickley
Background: With his September callup, Denorfia ensured his title as the top male athlete in Wheaton (Mass.) College history. He earned Division III all-America honors in 2002, when he batted .467.
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Strengths:
He doesn’t have overwhelming tools, but Denorfia has surprised scouts with his improved hitting and power the last two seasons. He displays a good feel for the strike zone and works counts in his favor. He’s a solid runner with enough range to play center field. He’s average defensively in center field and he has enough arm strength to play right.
Weaknesses:
Denorfia doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses. He doesn’t have exceptional bat speed and his swing doesn’t naturally produce loft power. He’s already getting everything out of his ability, so there isn’t much projection left to him.
The Future:
Denorfia is ready to contribute in Cincinnati after a strong Arizona Fall League performance. He may not be more than a fourth outfielder, especially with the Reds’ position depth.
2005 Club (Class) AVG OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Chattanooga (AA) .330 .391 .564 188 40 62 17 3 7 26 17 38 4 3
Louisville (AAA) .310 .391 .505 323 50 100 12 6 13 61 41 54 8 3
Cincinnati .263 .364 .421 38 8 10 3 0 1 2 6 9 1 0
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