At this point, Dunn deal doesn't add up

[missionhockey21]

At this point, Dunn deal doesn't add up
Column by The Post's Lonnie Wheeler

A lot of the Reds' hardest decisions revolve around Adam Dunn, and we're not talking about where to put the big guy in the batting order.

On second thought, maybe we will talk about that for a moment, because Jerry Narron seems to have a swell idea. Dunn was batting second Sunday for the second time in days - sandwiched around a seventh and a fourth - in spite of his 21 homers and 275 pounds. The jocular Texan is not your prototypical sacrifice bunter - it took him a couple years of hard swinging to produce a sacrifice fly - but he is brimming with that hot sabermetric commodity, get-on-baseness, which is particularly useful for the top of the order.

The man walks a lot, partly because he's picky for a guy who will eat anything, and partly because pitchers tend to steer clear of 500-foot strikes if they can. Plus, the person Dunn drives in the most is his big ol' country self, in which case you may as well move him up in the order for another whack at Mehring Way.

"I've been thinking about it for a long while, really," said Narron, the interim manager. "Dunn gets on base."

There's a fair chance, of course, that the bases on balls will taper off for the long-hitting Longhorn, what with Ken Griffey Jr. and Sean Casey batting behind him; but that, in turn, could extrapolate to more home runs. If this move turns out to be a win-win, that's already more wins than the Reds usually see in a week.

For a refreshingly normal major-leaguer, meanwhile, Dunn is a most peculiar ballplayer. He reaches base in spite of a low batting average. He's a power hitter who leaves runners in scoring position. He's a strikeout prodigy that teams don't want to pitch to.

He's also 25 and on pace for nearly 90 homers over two years; for a career rate of almost 40 a season. He's eminently durable, which should not be underestimated on Team Disabled List. And he, you know, walks.

OK, the man is no Tris Speaker in the outfield (although, equipped with major-league wit, he is a pretty good Extemporaneous Speaker). A lot of folks think his natural place is first base, where he acquits himself adequately but Casey holds forth. And so, as it goes, the question often comes down to those two.

Whom do you trade?

Click here for the rest

[Jr's Boy]

Trade Casey,Dunn at first,and hope the outfield will do well,i.e. Kearns.

[QuietAcre]

Casey is essentially worthless at 1B. He's an MLB Representative masquerading as a Reds player. Dunn should be the next one on the trading block. Outside of finding another outfielder that can hit long homers, I'm very certain the Reds can get more wins with better pitching, and that they can find an outfielder who was better than Dunn in the field, has more speed and can generate runs.

[AdamDunn#44]

name me an outfielder that is cheaper and can generate more runs than dunn. and he has to be avilable. good luck cuz you wont find one.

[Fishercat]

I'm still willing to bet that some of Dunn's hitting issues stem from being low in the order in the beginning of the year. I was looking at one of my stat books with leaderboards in it, and Adam Dunn (in 2004) was Top 10 in OPS against both fastballs and changeups. Those two pitches are ones that you see when either ahead in the count (where they don't want to walk a player) or you see with support (so they don't risk anything). There's little risk in throwing Dunn 4 curveballs then a slider if he has Jason LaRue, Rich Aurilia, and the pitcher behind him. He walks, he's likely to be stranded at first. However, if you have a guy like Casey (who can screw up guys who like to throw sliders to Dunn since he absolutely clobbers sliders) or Griffey behind him, they may be tentative.

[General]

If I were O'Brien, Casey would be gone already.

[BigRedMachine]

I love Casey but would like to see the following happen. Move Casey with a trade, put Dunn at 1st. Then in a wild move put Jr in Left Field and inject Freel into Center Field. I know in another thread a was placing Freel at 2nd but hey the allows Jr and Dunn to remain in the lineup (they should be batting 3-4 either order) and also some speed in the outfield. Just think Lopez and Freel in the 1 and 2 spots respectively and then up steps either JR or Dunn, with the other to follow. Seems like a good lineup start to me.

OR you could so far as to put Randa at #3 and drop one of the big hitters to fifth.

[redsrbetter]

I likr your thinking BRM. I would want to trade Casey more than anyone of our outfielders as well. Casey has just gotten too expensive and although he is out best man to put the bat on the ball and make contact, we have to free up some space. I was against this thought before, as we really would not have anyone as a "contact" type hitter once Randa and casey are gone. But with Felo playing so well, Freel looking like a solid hitter that gets on base, and the possibilities of EdE being a pretty good hitter, opens up lot of ideas.

Your thought of moving Jr. to LF may be upon us come next season. But I do not think it would be to make room for Freel. I really do not see why they would go after a new 2B, or why they would use anyone until Bergolla is ready. Freel should man the 2 bag next season without a doubt. Call up Bergolla to be our utility man and get him some ABs. Having Freel at 2B, keeps the idea of having Freel and Felo at the top of the order. Dunn then Pena should follow with Griffey pretecting them. Have the hopeful new phenom in EdE bat 6th with the struggling Kearns batting 7th. The rest is already locked with our catcher and pitcher's spots.

[Geki Ace]

There's really no reason Griffey should be moved. If you have Freel in center and Griffey in left, Griffey's unhappy and Freel's dead because Wily Mo will have run him over one too many times. It doesn't make sense to me.