My thoughts on the Reds arms

[redsrbetter]

Since we cannot expect to have a winning season any longer, I am looking toward the future. Our problems lie in the face of the pitching staff once again. We definitely expected more this year, and we did not come close to those expectations. So, with the second half of the season on the brink of existance, I am looking for some improvement in some areas. I think we need to find at least 2 solid arms out of what we have in our rotation now. Here is what I see panning out.

Milton- He is still not close to being the man we signed to be our ace. But I like the way Ruhle is handling this process. He has been a lost cause as has the Reds season. So, allow him to use this second half to keep throwing until he figures it out. If he does not get it by then, then we should not keep him around. I think he will get something going, but will not be ace material even for this team.

Projection for 2006: No. 3 in our rotation.

Claussen- The positive thing about this guy is that he is still young. It is his first full season and has not seen a lot of success. I think he has to get something going in order to stay alive or else he will become another one on the long list of lost causes on this staff. It could go either way, but I expect more of the same from him in the second half.

Projection for 2006: Traded

Hudson- This is another guy who we do not know what to expect. One thing to keep in mind is that he is fresh off the DL and may not be at 100% yet. We may see a few more tough outings from him, but I believe he will look like a definite for the rotation near season's end.

Projection for 2006: No. 5 in our rotation.

Ortiz- I like this guys stuff, but he has not done much to show that it is effective. He has a good makeup, but I am dissapointed in him as well. Of course I expected more from everyone, but he is one that I thought would be better than we even expected. Another one on the list of lost causes.

Projection for 2006: Traded

Harang- Has impressed us all this year. But his shortcomings had to come at some point. I just hope he is not getting tired already. I do not want him to be seen as a first half pitcher. So, hopefully he can get over the hump and build on his overall good season this year. I expect him to be a little less than what we saw the first half, but still solid.

Projection for 2006: No. 2 in our rotation

Wilson- I think that his torn ligament is what turned him into the finesse pitcher we have seen the last few years. He was known as a flamethrower when drafted first overall. So, could it be that he can go back to that heat with a good offseason? We know the guy works very hard, so I seriously believe that he will at least come back better.

Projection for 2006: No. 4 in our rotation.

Our No. 1 will come to is in a trade hopefully. With a firesale likely coming soon, we have to try and get someone that will seriously make it happen. Take Dunn, take Kearns, take anyone you want, we need a good pitcher.

We also can hopefully look forward to seeing what Ruhle can do for these guys. Hopefully he can work at least 2 of these guys to help next season be a big one.

[Sea Ray]

Since we cannot expect to have a winning season any longer, I am looking toward the future. Our problems lie in the face of the pitching staff once again. We definitely expected more this year, and we did not come close to those expectations. So, with the second half of the season on the brink of existance, I am looking for some improvement in some areas. I think we need to find at least 2 solid arms out of what we have in our rotation now. Here is what I see panning out.

Milton- He is still not close to being the man we signed to be our ace. But I like the way Ruhle is handling this process. He has been a lost cause as has the Reds season. So, allow him to use this second half to keep throwing until he figures it out. If he does not get it by then, then we should not keep him around. I think he will get something going, but will not be ace material even for this team.

Projection for 2006: No. 3 in our rotation.

Claussen- The positive thing about this guy is that he is still young. It is his first full season and has not seen a lot of success. I think he has to get something going in order to stay alive or else he will become another one on the long list of lost causes on this staff. It could go either way, but I expect more of the same from him in the second half.

Projection for 2006: Traded

Hudson- This is another guy who we do not know what to expect. One thing to keep in mind is that he is fresh off the DL and may not be at 100% yet. We may see a few more tough outings from him, but I believe he will look like a definite for the rotation near season's end.

Projection for 2006: No. 5 in our rotation.

Ortiz- I like this guys stuff, but he has not done much to show that it is effective. He has a good makeup, but I am dissapointed in him as well. Of course I expected more from everyone, but he is one that I thought would be better than we even expected. Another one on the list of lost causes.

Projection for 2006: Traded

Harang- Has impressed us all this year. But his shortcomings had to come at some point. I just hope he is not getting tired already. I do not want him to be seen as a first half pitcher. So, hopefully he can get over the hump and build on his overall good season this year. I expect him to be a little less than what we saw the first half, but still solid.

Projection for 2006: No. 2 in our rotation

Wilson- I think that his torn ligament is what turned him into the finesse pitcher we have seen the last few years. He was known as a flamethrower when drafted first overall. So, could it be that he can go back to that heat with a good offseason? We know the guy works very hard, so I seriously believe that he will at least come back better.

Projection for 2006: No. 4 in our rotation.

Our No. 1 will come to is in a trade hopefully. With a firesale likely coming soon, we have to try and get someone that will seriously make it happen. Take Dunn, take Kearns, take anyone you want, we need a good pitcher.

We also can hopefully look forward to seeing what Ruhle can do for these guys. Hopefully he can work at least 2 of these guys to help next season be a big one.

What's your hang up with Claussen? I think the guy has made great strides this year. His stuff reminds me of Tom Browning. I think you can count on him as a starter on this team next year.

As for Ortiz I'd like to see him moved to the 'pen. He did well in that role last year for the Angels and God knows our 'pen needs help too. I think he can be a valuable setup man.

Wilson didn't have any ligament tears repaired in this latest Kremchek surgery. Just some frayed muscles. I'd say the best we can hope for is a return to 1st half 2004 levels.

We're going to have to get awfully lucky to find a #1 starter. I think we'll have to settle for a decent starter. But we do need to pickup some pitching of some sort with our surplus OF talent. The time has come to cash some of those chips in.

So as of right now I think we've got 4 guys penciled into the rotation and that's not too bad 'cause April 2006 is still a long way off. In addition to trades etc we can still hope guys like Kelly, Hall, Kozlowski, Dumatrait, Basham or Ramirez can contribute by then. That 27 year old Cuban LHP, Cruz, will be on the fast track as well. At 27 I doubt they'll wait too long on him

[redsrbetter]

My bad on the Wilson ligament thing. But I still believe that he will have a good comeback. This problem has been with him for 3 years.

As for Claussen, I may not have loved his outings all that much because my expectations may have been too high. I think his youth may deliver an improving pitcher for years to come. He has also been our second best starter this year. So, my judgement earlier has basis for argument. I, myself am ready to change my mind on the good call from Sea Ray and a quick look at this year's stats. I now hope that Claussen does stick around. Man, I really am an easy mind to change. LOL.

Ortiz to the pen? I could agree with that as well, but I really do not see a future for him in our rotation.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I'll tell you why I'm not completely buying Claussen:

1.53 WHIP

He is lucky he hasn't struggled more with that WHIP. That stat. is a good one, and just like OPS is for offense, it is a great indicator of production. In most cases, a WHIP like that will catch up to a pitcher unless something changes.

[Sea Ray]

I'll tell you why I'm not completely buying Claussen:

1.53 WHIP

He is lucky he hasn't struggled more with that WHIP. That stat. is a good one, and just like OPS is for offense, it is a great indicator of production. In most cases, a WHIP like that will catch up to a pitcher unless something changes.

That's not too bad in our rotation...unfortunately. I think you have to live with that because of his youth and being left-handed. But if you can come up with a better option I'm game!

[CincyRedsFan30]

No better options, but he won't be even an average option if his numbers don't improve soon.

[Sea Ray]

No better options, but he won't be even an average option if his numbers don't improve soon.

??? What could be more average than his numbers to this point? He has an ERA of 4.07 and a record of 4-4. His K:BB ratio is about 2:1. Why do his numbers have to improve?

You could make a case that this year he's been our "best" starting pitcher. His numbers don't support your statement at all. I realize he has a 1.53 WHIP but what is average for a starting pitcher? My guess is that's 1.5 is about average. I bet it's darn good for this staff

[Slyder]

But thats not saying much. League average for WHIP is 1.38 according to Yahoo. Hes allowing a runner and a half per inning pitched. If we are judging pitchers by how they shape up vs the rest of the staff then we will never get out of the funk we are. I want to see us get a staff we can be proud of. One like the starters the Cubs have, a pen that could at least remind us what relief truely is, or like the Braves during the 90s with Smoltz, Glavine, and Maddux, or that the A's had with Mulder, Zito, and Hudson, The Nasty Boys from the 90 team along with starters Tom Browning, Jose Rijo, etc.

[CincyRedsFan30]

The point is, Claussen's numbers will likely increase if that WHIP doesn't go down. It is a similar situation to the Reds last year. Their Pythagorean Record indicated they would finally start to slip, and they did that. These things are pretty trustworthy.

[Sea Ray]

The point is, Claussen's numbers will likely increase if that WHIP doesn't go down. It is a similar situation to the Reds last year. Their Pythagorean Record indicated they would finally start to slip, and they did that. These things are pretty trustworthy.

The hope is that Claussen will get better. If he doesn't then I'll be disappointed. He shouldn't peak as a pitcher this early in his career. But I've been pleasantly surprised with him so far this year. He's one of the bright spots on this team.

[Sea Ray]

But thats not saying much. League average for WHIP is 1.38 according to Yahoo. Hes allowing a runner and a half per inning pitched. If we are judging pitchers by how they shape up vs the rest of the staff then we will never get out of the funk we are. I want to see us get a staff we can be proud of. One like the starters the Cubs have, a pen that could at least remind us what relief truely is, or like the Braves during the 90s with Smoltz, Glavine, and Maddux, or that the A's had with Mulder, Zito, and Hudson, The Nasty Boys from the 90 team along with starters Tom Browning, Jose Rijo, etc.

If we put together a staff like that then I'll be the first to say that Claussen's not good enough, but until that time he can help this team.