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Thread: Harang or Volquez on Opening Day?

  1. #16
    Team to beat! Kiluckzle's Avatar
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    Re: Harang or Volquez on Opening Day?

    That 17-18 inning game against the Padres ( I think?) really seemed to throw Harang's whole season off. Not sure when that was though.

  2. #17
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    Re: Harang or Volquez on Opening Day?

    Harang was just as inconsistent after that Padres relief appearance when he pitched four scoreless innings as he was before.

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    Guess Who's Back missionhockey21's Avatar
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    Re: Harang or Volquez on Opening Day?

    Quote Originally Posted by love_that_reefer View Post
    Harang wasn't that good before he got hurt in July. In fact he wasn't good at all. Yes, the stint on the DL did him some good but overall, the season was awful. Harang wasn't injured the entire season. He gave up a lot of homeruns which was his biggest problem. But you're right, if he looks good in the spring then maybe but if Volquez looks good too, I say you have to give it to him.
    reef, this isn't rose colored glasses. And I don't mean his DL stint. Harang was sent on three days rest, with a 3.50 ERA or so for the season, in late May against the Padres for four innings and then pitched again four days later. After that, his ERA ballooned and he looked AWFUL. Walking way more batters, giving up bombs, etc. Eventually the Reds shut him down in July with the DL stint, he was rocked after that for a few starts. He did regain Harang like performance with a 2.8 or so ERA over his last 8 starts.

    So the question is, do we believe the start and the end of the season that is in line with his pre-2008 numbers or do we trust his numbers after that fateful bullpen apparance? With a guy like Harang, who has legit stuff and can pitch, I think its a clear answer. He was not the same after that bullpen apparance (which he was fantastic in as it was a big game at the time), but he returned to form to close the season out.

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    Re: Harang or Volquez on Opening Day?

    Quote Originally Posted by love_that_reefer View Post
    Harang was just as inconsistent after that Padres relief appearance when he pitched four scoreless innings as he was before.
    Harang had 8 out of 11 quality starts before that appearance (and one of those non-quality starts was a 7 IP 4 ER outing, which isn't the worst.)

  5. #20
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    Re: Harang or Volquez on Opening Day?

    Mission, the beginning of the season wasn't that good for Harang and especially not before the bullpen stint. And yes you did mean his DL stint or else you wouldn't have tried to blame his poor season on injury. I am looking at the game logs and he was all over the place all year long. The start before the infamous bullpen stint Harang was rocked for five runs in five innings against those same Padres. Three days later he pitches four scoreless innings in the pen. The start after that he gives up six runs. The next game he only gives up three runs, then seven, then one. Only once was there a disparity in walk totals after that game and that came after a skipped start because of forearm tightness.

    Again, he was inconsistent all year and the games after the bullpen stint was more of the same. Harang had a 4.80 ERA in the first half, 4.77 in the second half. Opponents hit .286 against Harang in the first half, .279 in the second half with a higher OPS.

    The question I ask my self is if I believe the inconsistent numbers he posted all year. The homerun rates were the same throughout the year. No spike after the infamous bullpen stint. He didn't start too strong and he didn't finish too strong either. It was better than the end result but not strong all the same. The middle was have covered and I do give some sympathy because he did have a DL stint but cannot blame a bad season on one bullpen start in which he was just as inconsistent before and after. All in all, it was a bad season. Volquez was much better and Volquez pitched in the same Padres game as Harang did on two days rest.

    Harang had 17 quality starts last season by the way, not 11

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    Re: Harang or Volquez on Opening Day?

    Quote Originally Posted by love_that_reefer View Post
    Mission, the beginning of the season wasn't that good for Harang and especially not before the bullpen stint. And yes you did mean his DL stint or else you wouldn't have tried to blame his poor season on injury. I am looking at the game logs and he was all over the place all year long. The start before the infamous bullpen stint Harang was rocked for five runs in five innings against those same Padres. Three days later he pitches four scoreless innings in the pen. The start after that he gives up six runs. The next game he only gives up three runs, then seven, then one. Only once was there a disparity in walk totals after that game and that came after a skipped start because of forearm tightness.

    Again, he was inconsistent all year and the games after the bullpen stint was more of the same. Harang had a 4.80 ERA in the first half, 4.77 in the second half. Opponents hit .286 against Harang in the first half, .279 in the second half with a higher OPS.

    The question I ask my self is if I believe the inconsistent numbers he posted all year. The homerun rates were the same throughout the year. No spike after the infamous bullpen stint. He didn't start too strong and he didn't finish too strong either. It was better than the end result but not strong all the same. The middle was have covered and I do give some sympathy because he did have a DL stint but cannot blame a bad season on one bullpen start in which he was just as inconsistent before and after. All in all, it was a bad season. Volquez was much better and Volquez pitched in the same Padres game as Harang did on two days rest.

    Harang had 17 quality starts last season by the way, not 11
    I did not mean his DL start and I stated he had 8 out of 11 quality starts to begin the season, not that he had 11 quality starts. I sadly watch this team a lot more than you do and it was obvious that he was not right after that appearance. Just because he wasn't put on the DL til July doesn't mean he wasn't injured. The Reds just took that long to shut him down as it was obvious his arm was fatigued and his mechanics were thrown out of whack after it.

    The problem of your analysis is that you are looking at just the basic splits which do not tell the whole story. You have to break Harang's season down to three parts: 1.) pre-SD bullpen appearance, 2.) post-SD bullpen appearance 3.) his last eight starts of the season. 1 and 3 account for about 19 of his starts and they overall tell a very different statistical story.

    I have given you ERA totals to support his first 11 starts and his last 8 starts. I am not saying he was flawless or perfect in those starts, but those 19 starts support my assertion that Harang was a different pitcher in period 2 and it took the DL shutdown for rest to get him back on track and effective. That is 128.2 innings of his season of 3.36 ERA ball. Again, he was not perfect in those starts but I am including it all and it follows a story that makes sense. His K/9 could have been higher and his HR/9 could have been a bit lower, but what do you trust more, the way he started and finished or Harang in the middle having back to back 8 ER outings?

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    Re: Harang or Volquez on Opening Day?

    Mission, you make a lot of good points but I am going by what I see in the game logs. He wasn't that consistent before or after the bullpen stint. He hurt his forearm many starts after that bullpen stint so I can't honestly say they were related in anyway. Harang's bullpen stint was on May 25, Harang has to skip a start with forearm stiffness on July 4th. He then made a start after that and then went on the DL. I just don;t see a correlation. Volquez pitched on two days rest and did just fine afterward. We'll just see how the spring goes

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