Time, not free reign, is only cure for Reds

[missionhockey21]

Time, not free reign, is only cure for Reds

By John Fay
Enquirer staff writer

A lot of people espouse the Marvin Lewis Theory for fixing the Reds: Bring someone in, give them free reign, and presto, things will be better.

This is no defense of Dan O'Brien or Dave Miley and no knock on Marvelous Marvin, but it's not that simple.

The NFL is set up for turnarounds. Major League Baseball isn't.

The NFL is different in four major ways:

In the NFL, you can cut someone and not pay him. In other words, Eric Milton could be gone after this year and the Reds wouldn't have to pay him $16 million.

In the NFL, small markets and large markets have almost identical payrolls, e.g., the Bengals' payroll is about the same as the New York Giants'. The Reds' payroll is $148 million less than the New York Yankees'.

In the NFL, you draft players who are ready to play. You draft Carson Palmer, sit him a year and he's your key offensive player. There are very few sure bets in the Baseball draft. You also can rapidly fill holes in the middle and late rounds of the NFL draft.

In the NFL, everything is set up to help the struggling teams - from the schedule to the number of teams that make the playoffs.

The point is, you could bring in anyone - John Schuerholz, Bob Howsam, Houdini - give them as much freedom as they need, and turning around the Reds still would take time.

More time, frankly, than O'Brien has been given as general manager.

Miley, or any manager in the current setup, is largely at the mercy of the general manger. You can be the greatest manager in history and you don't win if you don't have the players. Lou Piniella was a walking, talking, cussing example of that this week at Great American Ball Park.

So, as hard as it is for fans to accept, the Reds are probably best off letting O'Brien continue at least through the end of his contract.

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[Sea Ray]

I think John Fay is completely off base here and the following is what I wrote to him:

I totally disagree with your article today saying that Dan O'Brien deserves more time to see his 5 year plan through. Here's why:

If O'Brien is not the right guy to turn this thing around we will have wasted another 5 years and that's five years this franchise can't afford. That is the kind of thinking that Mike Brown used that led to the Dave Shula experience.

I've seen signs that he's not the right guy and this has nothing to do with only being on the job a year or so. Here are three areas he's severely lacking:

1) It seems to me that he's not a good judge of talent. He seems to only know AL West talent and kids from the state of Texas. The folks like Ortiz, Weber, Lidle and Aurilia all had AL West ties but were huge busts. The talent he received in exchange for Chris Reitsma was not good. At best those two pitchers have ceilings equal (middle relief) to the veteran they were traded for. That's not a good way to trade an established major league pitcher. In my opinion, the Reds "interim" GMs were better at bringing in young talent. They brought in Harang, Claussen and even Dumatrait who looks like he may have a future as a major league starter.

2) He's blown a lot of money...money this franchise can't afford to lose. Small markets can't afford to lose money like we've seen in Wilson, Ortiz, Milton and Jimenez. Imagine those mistakes multiplied over another couple of years?

3) The minor league system does not seem to be more stocked with talent than the average franchise. I know you watch the boxes of the minor league games and our talent doesn't stand out against its competition. He's not rebuilding our minor league system.

The next few years bring huge decisions where folks like Dunn, Casey, LaRue and Kearns are concerned. The right GM can turn this franchise around with some good moves. The wrong GM can either blow more of already fragile budget or trade them for more Bubbas or Bongs. We can't wait. O'Brien is not a good GM and the quicker Lindner/Allen realize that and admit their mistake in hiring him the better.

[Jr's Boy]

Great letter,you should be writing for the Cincinnati Enquirer.

[General]

Right, Mission wrote that..

[missionhockey21]

Right, Mission wrote that..

I would believe since what I posted was in quotes and linked to the original article, JR's Boy was speaking of the quality post made by Sea Ray.

[General]

I would believe since what I posted was in quotes and linked to the original article, JR's Boy was speaking of the quality post made by Sea Ray.

Sorry, I'm

[Sea Ray]

Great letter,you should be writing for the Cincinnati Enquirer.

Thanks. I'll report back when/if I get a response

[volzok]

While I agree with most everything you say Sea Ray, its hard to fire a GM a year and a half into it. We may all want to fire him now, but its kind of hard to justify this early. Personally I would like to see John Allen go. Not a whole lot has gone good for the Reds since he has been here but thats probably a unrealistic dream.

[Sea Ray]

While I agree with most everything you say Sea Ray, its hard to fire a GM a year and a half into it. We may all want to fire him now, but its kind of hard to justify this early. Personally I would like to see John Allen go. Not a whole lot has gone good for the Reds since he has been here but thats probably a unrealistic dream.

I'd like to see O'Brien and Miley go at the end of the year. Bring in some new blood like maybe Jim Leyland and a GM he's comfortable with. My point is we can't afford another off season like this one. We can't afford to have him trade Kearns and get back a Bong and a Bubba. We can't afford more Wilson and Jimenez signings. Right now the clubhouse is in disarray and no one wants to be here.

I'm with you on John Allen but a new COO isn't going to keep O'Brien from trading Kearns and Dunn for more AL West rejects.

[volzok]

Yeah I agree with you Sea Ray. We have had some very pitiful moves. Firing Allen may be a moot point if the Reds bring in someone as incompetent. But odds are if they fire O'Brien and Miley, it would not be an improvement. Thats whats frustrating right now. Hopefully something good will happen soon.

[Slyder]

I'd like to see O'Brien and Miley go at the end of the year. Bring in some new blood like maybe Jim Leyland and a GM he's comfortable with. My point is we can't afford another off season like this one. We can't afford to have him trade Kearns and get back a Bong and a Bubba. We can't afford more Wilson and Jimenez signings. Right now the clubhouse is in disarray and no one wants to be here.

I'm with you on John Allen but a new COO isn't going to keep O'Brien from trading Kearns and Dunn for more AL West rejects.

It would if the new COO was in Lindner's ear as a baseball guy more so a penny pincher and Lindner stepped in more.

[Jr's Boy]

Yes I wondered how the BP would have fared earlier on had we still had Reitsma.Bong and Nelson when are going to contribute?

[volzok]

Well, Bong is on the 60 day DL and Bubba is having moderate success down in Chattanooga. But I wouldnt expect to see Bubba a Reds uniform anytime soon.

[Slyder]

Bong had a short stint last year in the rotation with moderate success if i remember correctly. But still both have fallen well short of what Reitsma could have meant to this team the past year and a quarter of the seasons.

[Sea Ray]

I got a response from John Fay and here it is:

Agree with your first two points. But it's too early to tell with the farm system. He just completed his second draft. His record was good with Houston. I wrote I don't know if he is the guy, but you don't fire him now because this team is lousy when he was brought in to implement a three-year plan. If you're not seeing signs at the end of contract, you fire him then.

So basically we differ on a year. I say fire him after two years, he says three. Time will tell who was correct. If he's not the right guy then waiting a year just wastes more time and you take the chance that he'll screw more stuff up.