Dunn continues streak of walks

[CincyRedsFan30]

It's a bad spot when he has hitters like Aurilia/LaRue behind him often(and I like Jason). Other teams have realized that he can be pitched around, because they know that they have a better chance of getting out of the inning with the hitters behind him. Watch and see how often he gets little to hit. Another thing to pay attention to is how he often has been the leadoff guy in innings for us. That cuts down on his RBI possibilities right there.

[Wally Mo Pena]

kearns and randa bat behind him first though. I don't think that a pitcher thinks, hmm... i don't want to face this .230 hitter so i'll pitch around him to get to another .230 hitter, and then i'll pitch around him to get to a .285 hitter, and i'll pitch around him to get to jason larue. then i'll get an out.

That doesn't make any sense, he get's plenty of pitches to hit, though he would get more to hit 3rd in the order i'll give you that, but that's the best spot to hit, anyone would get more there. He should be able to hit fifth in the order. If he doesn't get any pitches to hit, why has he struck out more than 60 time already!? Are you saying that when he strikes out looking and strikes out swinging that they are all bad calls or bad swings?

[Sea Ray]

If he doesn't get any pitches to hit, why has he struck out more than 60 time already!? Are you saying that when he strikes out looking and strikes out swinging that they are all bad calls or bad swings?

This is the key question. If he's not getting pitches to hit, then that explains the high walk total, but what explains the record strike outs? What is unique about Adam Dunn that is unlike any other player ever to play the game that explains why he strikes out at the rate he does? Last year he struck out more than Reggie Jackson, Babe Ruth or Bobby Bonds ever did. This year he's showing that was no fluke. Why does this guy strike out more than anyone ever has?

After all these pages all I've heard is that it's justified because he takes a lot of walks.

[Fishercat]

The difference is the value of Dunn's 23% of hits (and getting on base 40% of the time) compared to the value of Kearns' 23% or hits. Kearns SLG is around .400, meaning that in every at-bat, he'd average .4 bases (basically a double every five ABs). If he (Kearns) got a hit 22.5% of the time, then (if my calculations are correct) he gets around 1.8 bases per hit (and 0 on every out). On the other hand, Dunn's SLG is around .550 and he gets a hit 23.6% of the time, he averages 2.33 bases per hit. That's the difference between pitching to one .230 hitter and not to the other. FWIW, Randa averages 1.62 bases per hit, but he gets a hit about 6% more often (in at-bats) than Dunn does. Honestly, the player has to decide between Randa and Dunn whether he'd prefer to take his chances with Dunn (who makes his hits count but are more sparse) or Randa (who doesn't do as much damage but does it more often).

As for the K's, if he strikes out looking, then maybe he was too picky on a 2 strike count. If he strikes out swinging, it only shows that he wasn't expecting the pitch (as almost every hitter does bad on two strike counts) and if he made contact, it would have sucked.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Fisher covered it quite well. Excellent post.

[Wally Mo Pena]

Because I was curious, I checked out the rbi production by batting order and the average OPS from each spot in the lineup (1 Through 8). The argument has been over whether fifth is not a good rbi spot in the lineup or not. Some have said that batting fifth you won’t see enough pitches to hit, or have enough people on base in front of you to produce, and that that’s why Dunn hasn’t been up to par. This is what it looks like across the majors so far this season:

…RBI..OPS
1. 23.8 .757
2. 23.9 .715
3. 34.3 .820
4. 37.4 .829
5. 34.1 .800
6. 30.9 .789
7. 25.8 .698
8. 23.3 .692

It looks pretty much like I thought it might, where the HEART OF THE ORDER (that is 3, 4, 5) is where most of your runs come from. It looks like third and fifth get about the same number of RBI, 4th gets the most (cleanup), and that fifth has a lower OPS than third. The lower OPS makes me think that there are probably a few less pitches to hit in the 5 hole, but as far as this distribution goes, it’s still the 3rd best spot to hit in terms of production, by RBI or OPS. Also, 6th looks pretty good as well. This makes me think even more that Dunn has not produced as well as his OPS might indicate.

[Sea Ray]

Yeah Wally he's really under performed as far as RBI production. I bet his 14 HRs are well above average for a 5th place hitter but his RBIs are below average. He is not a run producer except when he hits HRs like on Opening Day. His walks in the 5th hole are not as productive as the #1 or #2 hole cause the positions behind him are not run producers.

[CincyRedsFan30]

It all comes back to RBI being a team dependent stat. Casey/Griffey were rarely on base for Dunn to drive them in during April. You can't drive in runners that aren't there.

How about also checking to see how many times Dunn has been the leadoff hitter in an inning this year. It's happend way too often because the Reds' lineup has not been structured well. With a hitter like Dunn, hitting him 5th hurts him more than it might for another player by hitting them 5th. Most other teams don't have hitters with Dunn's HR power hitting 5th, but with players like Aurilia/struggling Kearns/LaRue right behind them. That gets him pitched around a LOT. Dunn has already proven himself to many pitchers that he could hit a HR at any time at the plate, and when there are RISP, a player like him isn't going to get many chances to hit 3-run HR, especially while batting 5th or 6th.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Yeah Wally he's really under performed as far as RBI production. I bet his 14 HRs are well above average for a 5th place hitter but his RBIs are below average. He is not a run producer except when he hits HRs like on Opening Day. His walks in the 5th hole are not as productive as the #1 or #2 hole cause the positions behind him are not run producers.

Blame management for that, not Dunn. It's not his fault that he's in an awful spot for the type of hitter he is. I can guarantee you he'd drive in a much great number of runs if he hit 3rd in the lineup instead of 5th or 6th. If he had Pena/Griffey/Casey behind him, he would have other hitters who often scare pitchers behind him, which would give him more pitches to hit for HR AND would make his walks more beneficial to those hitters behind them, who would see more pitches because they wouldn't want to allow another player getting on base after Dunn.

[missionhockey21]

How about also checking to see how many times Dunn has been the leadoff hitter in an inning this year.

Adam Dunn is 2nd on the team in AB's for leading an inning off with 52 (trailing Freel who has 62.)

[CincyRedsFan30]

Adam Dunn is 2nd on the team in AB's for leading an inning off with 52 (trailing Freel who has 62.)

There you go. He's been leading off a lot. I imagine he has also drawn a good number of his walks during those situations. Drawing a BB or hitting a single is certainly the same thing in that situation.

[Wally Mo Pena]

The difference is the value of Dunn's 23% of hits (and getting on base 40% of the time) compared to the value of Kearns' 23% or hits. Kearns SLG is around .400, meaning that in every at-bat, he'd average .4 bases (basically a double every five ABs). If he (Kearns) got a hit 22.5% of the time, then (if my calculations are correct) he gets around 1.8 bases per hit (and 0 on every out). On the other hand, Dunn's SLG is around .550 and he gets a hit 23.6% of the time, he averages 2.33 bases per hit. That's the difference between pitching to one .230 hitter and not to the other. FWIW, Randa averages 1.62 bases per hit, but he gets a hit about 6% more often (in at-bats) than Dunn does. Honestly, the player has to decide between Randa and Dunn whether he'd prefer to take his chances with Dunn (who makes his hits count but are more sparse) or Randa (who doesn't do as much damage but does it more often).

As for the K's, if he strikes out looking, then maybe he was too picky on a 2 strike count. If he strikes out swinging, it only shows that he wasn't expecting the pitch (as almost every hitter does bad on two strike counts) and if he made contact, it would have sucked.

good points about the relative risk of pitching to the guys behind him, i'm just saying that i think it's going a little overboard to just guess that dunn is getting pitched around all the time because he's in the 5 hole. I think kearns and randa are still threatening enough not to be considered auto outs, and there isn't a big enough difference between dunn and the others to pitch around him in enough situations to make that large of an impact on his production. I've said i think he should bat third, i think he would do better, but that doesn't mean that he shouldn't be producing where he has been.

teams are averaging 9 HRs in the 5 hole, for what that's worth.

[Wally Mo Pena]

There you go. He's been leading off a lot. I imagine he has also drawn a good number of his walks during those situations. Drawing a BB or hitting a single is certainly the same thing in that situation.

Leading off a lot or not, he's still had a lot of opportunities with RISP. Team leaders in plate appearances with RISP are:

Kearns 62
Casey 61
Griffey and Dunn 59

If he had batted third like we have said we want, he only would have had 2 more chances with RISP. So leading off doesn't really factor in here.

[Sea Ray]

Blame management for that, not Dunn. It's not his fault that he's in an awful spot for the type of hitter he is. I can guarantee you he'd drive in a much great number of runs if he hit 3rd in the lineup instead of 5th or 6th. If he had Pena/Griffey/Casey behind him, he would have other hitters who often scare pitchers behind him, which would give him more pitches to hit for HR AND would make his walks more beneficial to those hitters behind them, who would see more pitches because they wouldn't want to allow another player getting on base after Dunn.

We're in agreement that Miley has not used Dunn properly. With his high OBP he needs to hit higher in the order.

By the way, was anyone else miffed that Miley saw fit to move Felipe Lopez down in the order? I thought it was a forgone conclusion that Felipe was a success in the #2 hole but not in the eyes of Miley. In all his wisdom he moves him down to #7 where he goes 0 for 4 with three strike outs. That is exhibit 97 for why Miley is not a good manager and how he is screwing up our young players.

[Wally Mo Pena]

Now here are some interesting numbers that don't indicate that Dunn is probably a good leadoff hitter, but might point to dunn being pitched around a little with RISP.

With risp he's had 59 PA and has 18 walks.
with none on he has 129 PA and only 16 walks. and 9 of his HR's have come with none on and his line is: .221 .323 .558 .881.

when there are none on, pitchers go after him and his OPB drops considerably, but he hits some solo shots. With runners on his OBP goes up and his power goes down. I don't know if he's getting pitched around or just not being aggressive enough, but there is a difference.

This discussion has taken some twists and turns, and some good points have been made, but overall i think we'll have to agree to disagree. To me it still looks like Felipe and Freel are the two most valuable offensive players we have, and that dunn would be a better player if his OBP stayed the same but more of it came from hits than walks. Those were the two things that we were originally talking about i think.