Bold Prediction

[redsrbetter]

Yeah I have been looking into it. In fact, check out the A's forum. I wanted to get a feel from A's fans on their thoughts on our young talent. Surprisingly, it is not as pleasant as I expected. But it definitely gives you a perspective that Billy Beane may be coming from.

[Providence A's]

the A's would only be interested in a CF as part of a package...he doesn't want corner OFs. 3B, SS, CF, and as always SP.

[redsrbetter]

I think Hamilton is the best fit honestly. Now as much as I would hate to lose him, I know Krivsky is shopping him and that is the only reason why I have brought his name up so much. But of all the outfielders to trade, he would be the last one to go if I were calling the shots.

But if Haren were in the conversation, I would definitely explore the avenues in getting something done.

[Providence A's]

edit: I guess he is...but I don't think he's what the A's would want. If we rebuild, we're building towards 2011 when the new stadium opens...that's why I said prospects in the A's forum...we'd want a couple young, ready guys and some specs. Hamilton will be 27 in May...I think we want guys that are slightly younger to be honest.

edit2: Also, we're not shopping Haren so much as just listening to offers for him. We'd have to be bowled over as there is no need to move him since he's signed cheaply for 3 years.

[redsrbetter]

Thats right, you mentioned that before, I forgot. But Blanton is likely being shopped, right?

Hamilton is a health risk as well. I think that is the only saving grace for us Reds fans to see him play for us next season.

[Mario-Rijo]

the A's would only be interested in a CF as part of a package...he doesn't want corner OFs. 3B, SS, CF, and as always SP.

Hmm let me see what kind of deal I can come up with here. Young players you say, I think we can work something out.

I wanna offer for Dan Haren just for the fun of it, even though Haren has some question marks himself. However my thought process says that Beane wouldn't deal him unless we offered up Bailey or Bruce in said package. But i'll give it a go.

I'll make an offer and you look it over and tell me if it would work, and why or why not.

Class AAA SS Paul Janish 24 yrs old - ETA 2009

Pro's
Plus defender
Doesn't K much
Good Baserunner
Durable

Cons
Only avg speed
Below avg Power
Improving but below avg contact

Bottom line: Projects to be an avg starter who is a good defender and only an avg at best offensive game.

Major league comp: Adam Everett w/ less power and speed but better plate discipline.

Class A+ LHSP Travis Wood 20 yrs old - ETA 2010

Pro's
Left Handed Starter
90-94 MPH Fastball
One of if not the best Change up in the minors
Extremely Athletic
Good control & command of his pitches

Con's
5'11 to 6'0 Tall 165 LBS.
Has had a injury or 2 (But seems to have bounced back nicely)
Is more of a Flyball pitcher, 60% flyball 40% GB

Bottom line: With that Velocity, a nasty change and a solid but developing curve he has the makings of a #2 or #3 guy in the rotation and will likely play above avg defense in the middle as he is athletic (no pun intended) and smart. Assuming his size doesn't make him subsceptible to injuries in which case he could become a great set-up man.

Major Lg comp: Rich Hill sorta


Class A CF Drew Stubbs 23 yrs old - ETA 2010

Pro's
Elite Defensive CF in every way Speed,Range,Glove,Instincts,Arm
Excellent Plate discipline
Has developing power

Con's
Strikes out alot
Great Speed but needs to improve his baserunning

Bottom line: He is a future star if he straightens out the K problem and his power contniues to develop, if he doesn't he may just be a defensive replacement 4th OF type who can take a pitch and pinchrun.

Major League Comp: Mike Cameron


If this won't do it let me know and I will offer up a package for Blanton.

[Mario-Rijo]

What does everyone think the odds are that either the Cards or Reds end up with Matt Morris? I'd have to believe that those odds are pretty good and I would imagine that the Reds chances are even better than the Cards.

Don't get me wrong I ain't sayin' it is a good thing but I am thinking it may well be a sure thing. I'm going to say this as a Bold prediction:


Matt Morris to the Red's for

OF Sean Henry and RHRP Carlos Guevara

[Providence A's]

Hmm let me see what kind of deal I can come up with here. Young players you say, I think we can work something out.

I wanna offer for Dan Haren just for the fun of it, even though Haren has some question marks himself. However my thought process says that Beane wouldn't deal him unless we offered up Bailey or Bruce in said package. But i'll give it a go.

I'll make an offer and you look it over and tell me if it would work, and why or why not.

Class AAA SS Paul Janish 24 yrs old - ETA 2009

Pro's
Plus defender
Doesn't K much
Good Baserunner
Durable

Cons
Only avg speed
Below avg Power
Improving but below avg contact

Bottom line: Projects to be an avg starter who is a good defender and only an avg at best offensive game.

Major league comp: Adam Everett w/ less power and speed but better plate discipline.

Class A+ LHSP Travis Wood 20 yrs old - ETA 2010

Pro's
Left Handed Starter
90-94 MPH Fastball
One of if not the best Change up in the minors
Extremely Athletic
Good control & command of his pitches

Con's
5'11 to 6'0 Tall 165 LBS.
Has had a injury or 2 (But seems to have bounced back nicely)
Is more of a Flyball pitcher, 60% flyball 40% GB

Bottom line: With that Velocity, a nasty change and a solid but developing curve he has the makings of a #2 or #3 guy in the rotation and will likely play above avg defense in the middle as he is athletic (no pun intended) and smart. Assuming his size doesn't make him subsceptible to injuries in which case he could become a great set-up man.

Major Lg comp: Rich Hill sorta


Class A CF Drew Stubbs 23 yrs old - ETA 2010

Pro's
Elite Defensive CF in every way Speed,Range,Glove,Instincts,Arm
Excellent Plate discipline
Has developing power

Con's
Strikes out alot
Great Speed but needs to improve his baserunning

Bottom line: He is a future star if he straightens out the K problem and his power contniues to develop, if he doesn't he may just be a defensive replacement 4th OF type who can take a pitch and pinchrun.

Major League Comp: Mike Cameron


If this won't do it let me know and I will offer up a package for Blanton.

what question marks do you think Haren has? To be honest, I don't see that deal happening for Haren. Beane will have to be blown away to deal Haren and that deal doesn't blow me away. I'd probably at least consider that deal for Blanton. That SS doesn't sound too special and the other 2 guys are in A ball. Beane is going to want guys that aren't that far away. I'd guess two MLB ready guys and two A ball specs for Haren and some combination of three of those for Blanton.

[Mario-Rijo]

what question marks do you think Haren has? To be honest, I don't see that deal happening for Haren. Beane will have to be blown away to deal Haren and that deal doesn't blow me away. I'd probably at least consider that deal for Blanton. That SS doesn't sound too special and the other 2 guys are in A ball. Beane is going to want guys that aren't that far away. I'd guess two MLB ready guys and two A ball specs for Haren and some combination of three of those for Blanton.

Look I would be knit-picking to start criticizing Haren but let me just say that if one was to look strictly at his ERA 3.07 one might think he is a dominant pitcher and while he is very good he isn't great. But I digress because I agree that he likely would have to be blown away to deal him which is the only reason he is on the block. Because the market is so bad that people would likely overpay to get him.

In reality I also think you are right about this deal as it simply wouldn't be enough, I just wanted to see your thoughts on it.

That said I think this deal would be more than enough for Blanton and my guess is that he would be the better target for the Red's assuming they could put a good defense behind him. His HR/F% (HR's to Flyball ratio) for a starting pitcher is phenomenal. His was 7.8% last year and the league avg for pitchers is about 11-12% (Haren's for example was 11.1%), a good avg for relievers is about 5-6% so Blanton is excellent at keeping the ball in the park. If he struck out more guys he would bring more back in a trade than Haren perhaps. He does have a reasonable K rate for a middle rotation guy at 5.7% last year. Haren for example avg. 7.9 K's per game and Aaron Harang avg. 9 K's per game last year.

I dont know if we are a match but I wish we were to get a guy like Blanton would be pretty good for us.

[redsrbetter]

I just think for Blanton even, the market would be higher than your proposal Rijo. Maybe start there, but be prepared to have to offer something a bit better.

[Mario-Rijo]

I just think for Blanton even, the market would be higher than your proposal Rijo. Maybe start there, but be prepared to have to offer something a bit better.

That could be true but I sorta doubt it, unless someone get's desperate (Mets). Stubbs and Wood are very good players and they both likely move up this year to A+ and AA respectively, and perhaps further. They could both easily be in AAA by the end of this next season. Janish ahh not so much, he is a fringey player unless something happens to make him a better contact hitter. Blanton has done well and I like him, but let's not get ahead of ourselves he too has his warts.

Heck Stubbs was a top 10 pick in the draft and for good reason if he sorts out the contact issue. And he flat took it to another level the 2nd half of last year when he made some adjustments at the plate & was taken out of the leadoff spot to a more appropriate #5 hitter where he didn't have to take a bunch of pitches for the team and get into pitcher's counts.

That said if it came to having to offer a lot more I think I would just pass.