roster shakeup?

[Wally Mo Pena]

Times are drastic - will measures be, too?
Woeful club seems ripe for big move

By John Fay
Enquirer staff writer

NEW YORK - We've been at this juncture before: The Reds are struggling mightily going into an off day.

Would they dare come back with the same club Friday when they open a three-game series with Cleveland?

The Reds finished their latest trip with a 10-6 loss to the New York Mets on Wednesday before a crowd of 26,607 at Shea Stadium.

The loss was particularly ugly.

The Reds didn't get a very good start from Eric Milton (51/3 innings, four earned runs), they didn't hit in the clutch, they made a season-high four errors and closer Danny Graves gave up four runs in a mop-up role.

"Ugly, embarrassing," Reds manager Dave Miley said. "You don't have keys on your computer for what I want to say.

"And (Ryan) Freel was safe."

Miley was ejected in the fifth inning for arguing an out call on Freel at first base. Obviously, the frustration is starting to boil.

The Reds were 2-5 on the trip and lost their last four games. They've lost 16 of their last 20 overall.

But all of that's in the rearview mirror. Today's a new day - and an off day.

The question is worth asking again: Will the Reds do something big, something small or nothing at all?

If history is an indicator, you can expect a minor move. The last time the Reds lost seven straight games heading into an off day, they sent Joe Valentine to Triple-A Louisville and brought up Ricky Stone.

As shakeups go, that barely made a ripple in the clubhouse. This team seems to need more than that.

There are two ways to really jolt the team: Fire someone or shake up the roster.

Miley and his staff - particularly pitching coach Don Gullett - have had a lot of the blame for the slide heaped upon them by the fans. But Reds general manager Dan O'Brien said last week that there would be no staff changes.

Miley says his staff has worked as hard as any in baseball. And given the performance of the high-profile players on the roster, how much is his staff to blame?

Milton is 2-5 with a 7.16 ERA. No. 1 starter Paul Wilson is 1-5 with a 7.77 ERA.

Milton and Wilson aren't going anywhere. Wilson is under contract for the next year with a buyout in 2007; Milton is in the first year of three-year, $25.5 million contract.

But there are players on one-year deals not putting up numbers.

Shortstop Rich Aurilia was hitting .198 before he went on the disabled list. Reliever Ben Weber's ERA was 8.03 before he went on the DL. Second baseman D'Angelo Jimenez is hitting .229, and he made two errors Wednesday and failed to score on a single from second - a play on which any middle infielder should easily.

Jimenez and Aurilia have lost their starting jobs to Freel and Felipe Lopez, respectively. Given that this season is bordering hopeless, would the Reds be better off releasing Jimenez, Aurilia and Weber and going with younger players?

A roster shuffle, particularly one including the release of a veteran, has a way of getting everyone's attention.

Last year after the Reds released Jimmy Haynes, they proceeded to win 11 of 14 games.

If anything happens, it probably won't be announced until Friday.

"(Thursday) will be a quiet day," assistant GM Dean Taylor said.

Sean Casey, who had five hits and four RBI Wednesday, agreed with Miley on his analysis of the game.

"It was pretty embarrassing," he said. "I don't know what else to say. I don't know what else we can do. Losing like this gets old."

Milton was hurt early by the long ball. Chris Woodward hit a two-run homer in the second inning for New York.

It was 15th home run allowed by Milton this season. The Reds have given up at least one in 17 straight games, equaling a club record.

Milton gave up two runs in the third inning and two in sixth. Two errors by Jimenez and one by Joe Randa meant one of the runs in each inning was unearned.

Offensively, the killer inning for the Reds was the fifth. Jimenez started the inning with a double, Jason LaRue was hit by a pitch and Milton singled to load the bases.

But Freel hit into a 1-2-3 double play. Replays showed a tie on the play at first, and Miley argued enough to get tossed for the fifth time as Reds manager.

After Graves gave up four runs in the eighth, the Reds scored three in the ninth - two on a Ken Griffey Jr. homer - but it was too little, too late.

"There is not any facet we're doing well," Casey said. "We're scuffling all over the place."

Will something happen before Friday?

[Wally Mo Pena]

I like the tone of this article, i like the thought of needing to shake things up, but i don't really think there is much substance to it.

As fay notes, Wilson and Milton aren't going anywhere, and they are the most obvious choices to be let go in terms of numbers. As long as the reds have the two of them in the rotation, there isn't much we can do as a team. What if we trade kearns for a decent pitcher? Whose spot is he going to take? If we got a decent pitcher and he replaced Claussn, Ortiz, Harang, or Elizardo, it might not be an upgrade, since all 4 of those guys have thrown decent ball lately. The new guy has to replace Milton or Wilson for it to matter, and that isn't happening.

The reds should release aurilia, and Weber if he doesn't get better from the injury if he even had one, but they're both on the DL, so they won't be released tomorrow.

I'd like to see them release Larue, that's one area that we could bring up a young guy and make an improvement right away, but i really doubt that that will happen, everyone seems to love jason and his terrible play.

Releasing Jiminez doesn't really make sense. He's a switch hitting middle infielder who never should have been given such a big contract, but is still a good back up. He can come in at ss or 2b in a double switch and hit from either side, and that's nice to have. And like fay notes, freel won the starting job, so they aren't going to keep bergolla on the team forever, not as the back up, so releasing jiminez wouldn't even allow them to go with younger players.

So really all we can do is address the pen. Hal did note that the last 7 times the reds have gotten a quality start the reds have lost. Some of that is the offense, a lot of it is the pen. I guess they could release graves, that would be a wild one. But i think more likely is that they will move him to middle relief. I could see wagner closing some games this weekend. Maybe they'll bring up bubba nelson and send down coffey or belisle. Or they could move milton or wilson to the pen. But that's about all i can see.

Likely moves (in order):
graves to MR
Bubba nelson up
milton or wilson to pen
kearns traded
miley fired
larue release, sardinha up

[NFLman2033]

I like the tone of this article, i like the thought of needing to shake things up, but i don't really think there is much substance to it.

As fay notes, Wilson and Milton aren't going anywhere, and they are the most obvious choices to be let go in terms of numbers. As long as the reds have the two of them in the rotation, there isn't much we can do as a team. What if we trade kearns for a decent pitcher? Whose spot is he going to take? If we got a decent pitcher and he replaced Claussn, Ortiz, Harang, or Elizardo, it might not be an upgrade, since all 4 of those guys have thrown decent ball lately. The new guy has to replace Milton or Wilson for it to matter, and that isn't happening.

The reds should release aurilia, and Weber if he doesn't get better from the injury if he even had one, but they're both on the DL, so they won't be released tomorrow.

I'd like to see them release Larue, that's one area that we could bring up a young guy and make an improvement right away, but i really doubt that that will happen, everyone seems to love jason and his terrible play.

Releasing Jiminez doesn't really make sense. He's a switch hitting middle infielder who never should have been given such a big contract, but is still a good back up. He can come in at ss or 2b in a double switch and hit from either side, and that's nice to have. And like fay notes, freel won the starting job, so they aren't going to keep bergolla on the team forever, not as the back up, so releasing jiminez wouldn't even allow them to go with younger players.

So really all we can do is address the pen. Hal did note that the last 7 times the reds have gotten a quality start the reds have lost. Some of that is the offense, a lot of it is the pen. I guess they could release graves, that would be a wild one. But i think more likely is that they will move him to middle relief. I could see wagner closing some games this weekend. Maybe they'll bring up bubba nelson and send down coffey or belisle. Or they could move milton or wilson to the pen. But that's about all i can see.

Likely moves (in order):
graves to MR
Bubba nelson up
milton or wilson to pen
kearns traded
miley fired
larue release, sardinha up

well first off, i like how the words, that DJ and Rich have lost their job, because that is a +

well, Wilson and Milton may not be going anywhere, but it doesn't mean they have to start, just because we have to keep them doesn't mean they have to be starters one or both could move to the Pen. If we get a guy for Kearns there is plenty of room in our terrible bullpen for Wilson and Milton, and there is the rumor of wilson going on the DL. I think some pitching mainly in the bullpen this team is what we want to see out there really..

the best way to see how serious this team is on winning will be how big of a move we make come friday, the bigger the move, the more serious they are, with the excpetion of completing the youth movement and throwing in the towel

[redsrbetter]

I do not trust the fact that Aurilia and Jiminez have lost their job. I bet that Miley, if he is still here, will put Aurilia back into the starting role once he returns from the DL. Which shows why I think he should be fired. He is a good guy, but that is not enough. We need him to be a good manager.

I agree that it sucks for us not to have Milton or Wilson in the realm of being released. Call up Kelly 1.88 ERA in 8 starts with 31 Ks in 48 IP. I say put Wilson on the DL soon, then move Milton to the bullpen. Have our rotation be;
Harang
Ortiz
Claussen
Ramirez
Kelly

Release Weber and send down Coffey. Call up Keisler and move Graves to middle relief to have our bullpen look like this;
Milton LRP
Stone LRP
Weathers MRP
Keisler MRP
Belisle MRP
Graves MRP
Mercker SU
Wagner CL

Next, you fire Miley before Aurilia comes off the DL. I bet DanO has made him be there for so long because he is tired of Miley's antics. Aurilia even admitted his shock when he got put on the DL. So once Aurilia comes off, release him. With Miley gone, hopefully Narron and whoever else takes over the managerial responsibilities can see that Freel needs to play over Jiminez. Have Jiminez be the backup infielder. Send Bergolla back to Louisville when Pena comes off the DL. Lineup should look like this;
Freel 2B
Lopez SS
Griffey CF
Dunn LF
Pena/Kearns RF
Casey 1B
Randa 3B
LaRue C

Bench:
Kearns/Pena
Cruz
Jiminez
Valentin

Then you think about trading Kearns for another starter. You hope that Milton can figure it out in the bullpen and give him another shot at starting once he does. Then you try and figure out Wilson's problem and you take your time with it. Hopefully get him back after the All Star break.

Recap:
Wilson to DL
Call up Kelly
Milton to the pen
Release Weber
Send down Coffey
Call up Keisler
Graves to middle relief
Fire Miley
Release Aurilia
Announce Freel perminant starter at 2B
Get Pena back from DL
Send down Bergolla
Trade Kearns for starter
New pitcher takes whoever is struggling spot in the rotation

[Wally Mo Pena]

i like most of what you have there redsrbetter, but there are a few problems. first, you have 8 pitchers in the pen, and we can't have 13 pitchers for the whole season. Then there are the two guys you have on there who aren't on the 40 man roster in kelly and keisler.

We can't get keisler without loosing someone else, so he has to stay in AAA for now, and i would send down belisle and give nelson a shot setting up.

milton
stone
weathers
graves
nelson
mercker
wagner

If we can trade kearns for a starter we should or we can try to get by with 4 starters until hudson or hancock are ready, and kelly would stay in AAA. Then send down either stone or nelson when the other is off the DL.

harang
ramirez
claussen
trade/hudson/hancock
ortiz

[redsrbetter]

Thanks Wally. I was obviously not thinking that deep. I get ahead of myself a lot.

Sucks that Kelly and Keisler are not on the 40 man. But once we release Weber and Aurilia we could get them on there. Keisler could switch with Weber straight up. Then send Belisle down to make room for him. Get Hudson and Hancock back and send down Stone and Keisler. Then we would still have 13 pitchers as you pointed out. And we have Wilson waiting to come off the DL (hopefully he goes there). So if Claussen, Hancock, Hudson are not doing well they cannot be moved as they are out of options. Next step is to send Ramirez back down. But if he is on fire there is no way we should do that either. Milton and Wilson are still not going anywhere as is the same for Graves. But why couldn't we send Graves down and call it a getting back to life opportunity? Kind of like what the Yanks need to do with Giambi.

[Wally Mo Pena]

good points about cutting weber and aurilia to free up spot on the 40 man. Right now those spots are at a premium and they are wastes of space to say the least. With kelly and kiesler throwing good games in louisville, there is real reason to ditch those guys.

[Sea Ray]

At least you guys are thinking about this and that's probably more than O'Brien does.

The first problem is we have to wait until Weber and Aurilia come off the DL in order to waive them. John Fay has mentioned that they should release LHP Brian Shakelford and I agree with him.

I don't know if moving Graves will happen because he's saved 8 out of 9 and we don't have another option that can do better than that.

I'd like to see Greg Booker sometime this summer. I've seen enough of Todd Coffey. Until he gets his 96 MPH fastball back he's not worth another look.

The area that really needs help is relief pitching and that should be the focus of this franchise. Traditionally this team has had very mediocre starting pitching and stellar relief pitching. This combined with a potent offense led to numerous come from behind wins and a generally good, competitive teams. Bullpens are also cheaper to build and can be done quickly. As much as has been made of this team's lack of ability to develop starting pitching, not enough has been made of it's ability to develop strong relievers. I doubt there's a better team at developing relievers.

Look at this list of the past 20 years:

Jeff Montgomery
Rob Dibble
Rob Murphy
I'm going to throw in Mike Remlinger,Gabe White, John Franco and Norm Charlton because neither one of these guys were worth a darn until they got in our system
Trevor Hoffman
Felix Rodriguez
Scott Williamson
Scott Sullivan
BJ Ryan
Bobby Ayala
Bill Landrum

How many relievers have the Braves or the Dodgers developed in that time?

I think that is an area this franchise does well and that can be rebuilt. Go to work DanO...

[redsrbetter]

Good point Sea Ray. Matter of fact that point makes me feel a lot better about this franchises abilities to make things good. Hopefully DanO can continue this trend.