I know everyone here loves that Cincinnati has 4 fine outfielders, 3 of whom seem to have the potential to be perennial All-Stars, and the fourth wrapping up a sure Hall-of-Fame career. But are they really all that good? What does the future hold for Wily Mo, Adam, Austin, and Ken? Now, we can wishcast all we want on these guys (like saying that Griffey will be healthy or that Dunn will stop striking out), but that's pointless. Let's be honest with ourselves, and see each of these individual players for who they are:
Wily Mo Pena: Pena is what he has always been, a low-average, moderate-walk power outlet who whiffs a lot. A player like Pena is essentially all-or-nothing, meaning that his batting average can vary wildly, as we've seen in 2003 and 2004. This means his value will also be highly inconsistent, since he can have a year where he hits .330 and wins the MVP, or hits .230 and is totally useless. The thing is, players of his type can take big leaps forward in no time, or can fall apart just as quickly. While his upside is Dale Murphy, his downside is Pete Incaviglia.
Austin Kearns: Kearns has already shown what he can do at the highest level, excelling at all facets of the game. But health is an ability, and Kearns may or may not have it. Hobbled the last two years, his production has steadily declined from his great rookie campaign. He still has plenty of time to shake it all off, but he actually has to do it for me to believe it. If healthy, it's clear that Kearns can be the .300/.400/.500 rock of the outfield. Yes, the third-base experiment was stupid from the beginning.
Adam Dunn: The current rock of the outfield. For a man his size, he's surprisingly athletic and should not be moved to first for any reason beyond injury. Strikes out an huge amount, but also walks a huge amount, and hits the living hell out of the ball when he makes contact. I can live with that. The key with Dunn is his athleticism. In good shape, think Jim Thome in the outfield. If he gets lazy or injured, think Jeremy Giambi in the outfield. His defense sucks. Oh well.
Ken Griffey Jr.: Looking at his batting average, I'd say he might be slowing down, but he never gets enough time in the field to make that opinion a sure one. He still has his ability to draw walks and hit for power, so his bat should still carry him when he does play. We all need to accept that his hamstrings are scar tissue now, and the damage cannot be repaired. Griffey's lackadaisical approach to stretching has not helped. He simply cannot hold up under a full season. The cliff is coming fast, so enjoy him while you can.
That's my say, and I'm too drunk to think anything different.