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Thread: Contact's importance in terms of Runs Scored

  1. #1
    Hall of Famer CincyRedsFan30's Avatar
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    Contact's importance in terms of Runs Scored

    Contact
    Leaders Trailers
    +------+---------+ +------+---------+
    | Team | Contact | | Team | Contact |
    +------+---------+ +------+---------+
    | ANA | 0.785 | | WAS | 0.729 |
    | SFN | 0.779 | | BOS | 0.728 |
    | CHN | 0.778 | | PHI | 0.727 |
    | OAK | 0.776 | | LAN | 0.725 |
    | BAL | 0.771 | | ARI | 0.725 |
    | FLO | 0.766 | | MIL | 0.721 |
    | DET | 0.760 | | CIN | 0.694 |
    +------+---------+ +------+---------+

    The Los Angeles Angels lead this category, which doesn't surprise me, since they have the reputation of a contact-oriented team. However, seeing Oakland among the leaders did surprise me a bit. It's been pointed out many times that since Moneyball was written in 2002 the A's have been shifting away from the walk-walk-home run paradigm, and this seems to be further evidence of that.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------


    That is a portion of the article from the "Hardball Times" that deals with the percentages of contact made by various teams. The teams on the left made it the most often last year, while the teams on the right made it the LEAST often last year.
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    Hall of Famer CincyRedsFan30's Avatar
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    The results, first for the teams with the MOST contact made:

    Anaheim: 11th in Runs Scored
    San Fran: 29th in Runs Scored
    Chicago Cubs: 20th in Runs Scored
    Oakland: 9th in Runs Scored
    Baltimore: 15th in Runs Scored
    Florida: 19th in Runs Scored
    Detroit: 17th in Runs Scored


    Now the teams with the LEAST contact made:

    Washington: 30th in Runs Scored (not a good start, but...)
    Boston: 1st in Runs Scored
    Philadelphia: 5th in Runs Scored
    LA Dodgers: 26th in Runs Scored
    Arizona: 23rd in Runs Scored
    Milwaukee: 16th in Runs Scored
    Cincinnati: 4th in Runs Scored

    Those are some interesting numbers. Of the teams making the least contact, more are in the bottom 10 in terms of Runs Scored than of those making more contact. However, only one of the teams with more contact is in the top 10 in terms of Runs Scored, while THREE teams with the least contact are in the top 10.

    Is there a common theme between those teams that seemed to be built to not make much contact but score a ton of Runs?

    Let's see:

    Home Runs:

    Cincinnati: 3rd
    Boston: 6th
    Philadelphia: 15th

    Two of the teams were among the best at hitting HR and all three were in the top half.

    Now let's take a quick look at contact vs. OPS vs. Runs Scored of each team and I will leave anything else open to discussion:

    Anaheim: Most contact, 21st in OPS, 11th in Runs Scored
    San Fran: Second most contact, 27th in OPS, 29th in Runs Scored
    Chicago Cubs: Third most contact, 8th in OPS, 20th in Runs Scored
    Oakland: Fourth most contact, 20th in OPS, 9th in Runs Scored
    Baltimore: Fifth most contact, 10th in OPS, 15th in Runs Scored
    Florida: Sixth most contact, 15th in OPS, 19th in Runs Scored
    Detroit: Seventh in contact, 14th in OPS, 17th in Runs Scored

    Washington: Seventh least contact, 30th in OPS, 30th in Runs Scored
    Boston: Sixth least contact, 1st in OPS, 1st in Runs Scored
    Philadelphia: Fifth least contact, 6th in OPS, 5th in Runs Scored
    LA Dodgers: Fourth least contact, 25th in OPS, 26th in Runs Scored
    Arizona: Third least contact, 13th in OPS, 23rd in Runs Scored
    Milwaukee: Second least contact, 11th in OPS, 16th in Runs Scored
    Cincinnati: Least contact, 5th in OPS, 4th in Runs Scored
    The Simpson family gathers around, as Homer places Bart's passed test on the fridge.)

    Homer: We're proud of you, boy.

    Bart: Thanks, Dad. But part of this D-minus belongs to God.

  3. #3
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    This brings up all the very hard to answer questions that follow the game. But it gives a great emphasis on the HR. A lot of people swear that the HR is the most overrated stat in baseball. I agree but only to an extent. How many times have we seen a HR completely change the final score of the game? A walk followed by a bloop single followed by a HR would likely be the most frustrating way an opposing pitcher could give up 3 quick runs. But all in all it was the HR that caused the damage and tacked on the runs. whereas the pitcher could have gotten out of the inning without any damage and each hitter making some form of contact. How many times do we see three hitters in a row hit the ball very hard but it is still recorded as an out? The HR is the no doubter. It does not allow the defense to use their effort in making something happen.

    The Reds hit HR at a surplus and we have no doubt that it is why they score as many runs as they do. But this article shares that contact is not as important as we may think. And it also shows me how far a walk can go. OPS is the ultimate description of how the Reds get it done. They get on base through a Dunn or Hatteberg walk and the hit HRs off many powerful bats.

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