time for an offensive shake up?

[Wally Mo Pena]

the reds offense has struggled lately, and the blame lays squarely at the feet of ryan freel and felipe lopez. with a .300 OBP over the last week our table setters have been leaving it pretty bare, and in that time they've managed only 1 double between them for pop.

freel also hasn't stolen a base in that time, while getting caught once.

all this while kearns, ede, phillips, and dunn have raked.


i think a rest is in order, but unfortunately aurilia just went down so that's not really an option for Felipe. I would like to see freel hit the bench tonight though, to get denorfia on the field, and i'd like to see felipe hit down in the order.

i'd go with:

hatteberg
kearns
dunn
ede
phillips
felipe
larue
denorfia

[redsfan28]

The offensive shake up we need is for Griffey to suck it up and get back out there. He keeps pitchers from pitching around guys like Freel, Lopez, Dunn, and Kearns. The top of the order has a higher batting average when Griffey is in the lineup.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Neither Freel nor Felipe have had much rest, so I'm not surprised.

The team has also faced a lot of tough pitchers lately, which I don't think has helped.

They have averaged 4.1 Runs per game over their last nine games, which for a major slump isn't that bad.

As for that lineup, I definitely wouldn't hit Hatteberg leadoff. He doesn't have enough speed which would clog up the bases for the hitters behind him.

Using those same players, I'd rather try something like:

Phillips (although his lack of BB would be a concern)
Denorfia
Dunn
EdE
Kearns
Lopez
Hatteberg
LaRue

[Geki Ace]

Screw having Hatteberg lead off. OBP is nice and all, but you've gotta have some speed at the top of the lineup.

[Wally Mo Pena]

that's just old baseball folklore. there's actually reams or research showing that speed is much more effective at the bottom of the order. At the top of the order you just need to get on so that the big hitters behind you can do what they do, which is hit for power and knock you around.

near the bottom of the order it helps more becase you don't have all your run producers coming up so moving from first to second or second to third helps them out more. Also, it's more of a waste if you get caught running with the power hitters up next.

all you need in at the top of the order is obp, and the more of it the better.

and while i agree that jr would probably help our lineup, i don't think that people have been "pitching around" our leadoff hitter and 2 hole hitter because he's not there, otherwise, they'd probably be walking more.

[Wally Mo Pena]

JinAZ did a nice treatment of The Book's analysis of lineup construction and noted that:

Another interesting tid-bit on speed guys:

* Stolen bases are most valuable when in front of singles 
hitters who don't strike out much.

* A caught stealing attempt is more costly when in front 
of power hitters than singles hitters.

Both of these seem "obvious," but also unappreciated. 
They argue for a speed guy hitting 6th, as this will put them 
in front of lower-power guys, maximizing the reward/cost ratio 
for any theft activity.

you can find that at: http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2006/...struction.html

and i should probably take my own medicine in that there's just too much evidence out there saying that batting your best hitter third is a mistake, so i should ammend my lineup:

hatteberg
kearns
phillips
dunn
ede
felo
larue
denoria

[Geki Ace]

The problem I have with all this "evidence" is that it's all theory. Until I see a good lineup based on those plans, I'm not gonna buy it. I also think their theories are based more on lineups that have a severe separation in talent from the top and bottom of the order, but the Reds have a quality lineup throughout. Another reason to bat Freel and Lopez high in the order is simply to get them more at-bats, especially in late-game situations. They're slumping right now, but it's incredibly obvious that they're better hitters than Hatteberg and have considerably more impact on a game.

Of course, you're also forgetting the part where Hatteberg is obviously going to begin a heavy decline and would therefore be even more useless in the leadoff spot.

[redsrbetter]

I have to agree that both Felo and Freel need a rest. The whole lineup construction thing makes perfect since to me how Wally has it explained. Although I do believe that we have enough talent to do better than Hatteberg leading off. Even though he is a really good OBP guy for now.

[Wally Mo Pena]

the evidence is a theory, but it's based on analysis of thousands of games. saying hatteberg will begin a massive decline is a theory, but not based on thousands of games, just based on a hunch.

[Geki Ace]

You're right, it's not based on thousands of games. Merely 1023, the amount of games Hatteberg had in his career before this year. In no season with anything resembling significant playing time has he put up numbers anything remotely near what he's done thus far this year. Seeing as how he's 36 and shown decline in recent years, I think it's more than "a hunch" that I'm basing this on.

[Wally Mo Pena]

he had a bad year last year, but has a career .356 OPB and put a .367 obp the year before that in a weaker lineup than what he has now. I don't have studies to back this up, but i bet i could find some showing that the ability to walk is one that declines the least, becuase it's not based on physical tools.

he's a high OBP low power guy, that's what you want in a leadoff hitter. i'm not saying permanently, but when freel is getting on base at a miserable rate for more than a week, maybe a day or two would get us back on track.

In case you failed to notice, it didn't really go so well with Felo there last night.

[Geki Ace]

I don't like having Felipe in the leadoff spot. He's a perfect number two hitter when he's not slumping like he is now. Freel is our leadoff man and should be our leadoff man every day.