stats are saying a lot right now.

[redsrbetter]

Today I took a look at the players stats and I see a lot of other than great things happening. We went into this season expecting Casey to really hit like he did last year. It seemed as if he got 2 hits every single game last season. Thing is, he is still making contact with only 7 strike outs on the year compared to Adam Dunn's 15. But obviously Casey has been in sort of a slump. His contact has not been good contact at all. Aurilia, on the other hand, is pretty much hated by all of us because of Miley's decision to regularly start him. But he has only 6 Ks this year. Which is the best on the team with nearly 40 ABs.

We have only two players with an above .300 AVG. Pena with .353 leads the team in 34 ABs. And our other player over .300 is none other than Freel at .350 in 20 ABs. Which is far better to look at than DJ with .217.

So what we have here is Casey (.250) and Aurilia (.205) making contact, but horrible at getting it to land in for a hit. Randa started the season off on a tear, but has declined his AVG to .294 where last week it was over .400. Lopez trying to get some hitting in, but is never getting enough playing time, therefore he is struggling but still has a respectable .267 AVG. which is far better than Aurilia's. So Miley what do you want? A guy who puts the ball in play, or a guy who puts the ball in play a little less but when he does he gets a hit?

Bottom line on all the hitting right now is that it is inconsistant. It seems like one day we are hyped about how well this team hits. Then the next day we freak out about seeing nothing from the lineup. I really cannot blame Miley or Chambliss either on MOST cases. But some of these guys have to sit. I think it was good to sit Randa today, because he has stopped hitting. Casey sat yesterday for the same reason. But DJ needs to sit every time a right hander is on the mound. Aurilia needs to sit a few more games because he is not hitting outside his homers the other day, but still has a horrible AVG. But this gives Felo a lot more of a chance to get it together.

Freel 2B (is doing well and much better than DJ)
Lopez SS (needs the AB and could strive in the 2 hole)
Dunn LF (is really getting his patience back along with hitting the ball hard)
Pena CF (is on fire no doubt)
Randa 3B (may have to take a few steps back and get things back on track)
Casey 1B (same as Randa with some protection he could get it together)
Kearns RF (I think he is coming out of his slump real quick, but he has to play)
LaRue C (is our only catcher that can hit)
Pitcher ( has to be here, man I wish we had a DH slot!)

This should be our lineup for a little while.

Most surprising offensive stat: Freel with a .500 OBP!

And for the pitching:

Wagner and Mercker are really looking good in the bullpen for us. But believe it or not, they are the only two that have been solid. Graves has the third best ERA for a pitcher out of the bullpen right now at 3.68. Weathers and Coffey are both at 9.00 for the team's worst. So the bullpen could be a lot better than it is.

Starting pitching is not much better though. Harang as been our best regular. But Ortiz was pretty good in his only outing. So hopefully he can get back sooner than later. Wilson and Milton can both be a little better and we know it. And Claussen and Belisle are still getting it together. Look out for Hudson fellas!

The surprising thing to me right now is all the strike outs our pitchers are throwing. Every pitcher not named Graves or Coffey have better than a 5 K/9 ratio. Thats pretty good for our sake.

My thought is that this team has not reached its potential on a player by player basis. A few players namely Wagner and Pena have really shown us what they can do. Hopefully they will last. But everyone else is much better than what they are showing. I am not dogging out anyone, but I am simply saying that this team could play better as a whole. Take that and an above .500 record right now and we have a team that can no doubt contend. But we have to see everyone at their max ability. And it is not there yet. The time is now. Because here comes Florida!

[AdamDunn#44]

re: Casey

It just proves that when contact hitters slump, they really really hurt the team. Casey is killing us right now and another big contact hitter-Jackson Wilson is killing the Pirates.

That's why I like patient hitters...they are usually slump proof.

Interesting thing on Casey-His best year was the year in which he struckout 88 times(career high). he posted a career high .938 OPS that year.

Just goes to show that strikeouts don't affect a player performance.

Good post, btw.

btw again, I think it would be extremely dumb to bat Lopez 2nd. he's struggling right now and even if he were hitting well he shouldn't bat 2nd. 2nd is for guys with GREAT OBP's ala Dunn.

[CincyRedsFan30]

re: Casey

It just proves that when contact hitters slump, they really really hurt the team. Casey is killing us right now and another big contact hitter-Jackson Wilson is killing the Pirates.

That's why I like patient hitters...they are usually slump proof.

Interesting thing on Casey-His best year was the year in which he struckout 88 times(career high). he posted a career high .938 OPS that year.

Just goes to show that strikeouts don't affect a player performance.

Good post, btw.

btw again, I think it would be extremely dumb to bat Lopez 2nd. he's struggling right now and even if he were hitting well he shouldn't bat 2nd. 2nd is for guys with GREAT OBP's ala Dunn.

I'm not arguing with you Claussen, but didn't you say up until a few days ago that you were frustrated because of how poorly Dunn was playing? Well, Dunn is a patient hitter, yet he was slumping until recently.

Also, while I do agree that contact hitters might be more prone to slumps, when they are "on", they seem to have more "unstoppable" stretches than non-contact hitters(as a general rule).

And I agree about the strikeouts... they aren't a big deal, especially for someone like Dunn, who does so many other things.

I agree that it would be dumb to bat Lopez second right now. Here is what I want to see for now:

Freel 2B
Dunn LF
Pena RF
Griffey CF
LaRue C
Randa 3B
Lopez SS
Casey 1B

There is no way Miley will do anything like that, but it's what I want to see as of right NOW.

[AdamDunn#44]

that you were frustrated because of how poorly Dunn was playing? Well, Dunn is a patient hitter, yet he was slumping until recently.

Dunn wasn't a patient hitter then. The Reds had him swingign at everything. In the last week or so, Dunn has gone back to his OWN approach and has bene awesome. He's lifted his OPS up over 1.100.

I wouldn't drop Casey that far.

Drop him to 6th, Randa 5th, LaRue 7th, Lopez/Aurilia 8th.

[CincyRedsFan30]

Dunn wasn't a patient hitter then. The Reds had him swingign at everything. In the last week or so, Dunn has gone back to his OWN approach and has bene awesome. He's lifted his OPS up over 1.100.

I wouldn't drop Casey that far.

Drop him to 6th, Randa 5th, LaRue 7th, Lopez/Aurilia 8th.

He wasn't a patient hitter then, but he's still known as being one. That just proves that patients hitters can sometimes start being impatient, and when they do, they can go into slumps too. I don't think it has anything to do with someone telling him to do something and then suddenly he started ignoring what was said and did what he felt like doing.

And I really don't know if Casey deserves to be any higher right now. He rarely even gets a hit per game. LaRue usually walks/hits more than him lately.

[AdamDunn#44]

He wasn't a patient hitter then, but he's still known as being one. That just proves that patients hitters can sometimes start be impatient, and when they do, they can go into slumps too. I don't think it has anything to do with someone telling him to do something and then suddenly he started ignoring what was said and did what he felt like doing.

He went from swinging at every pitch to being a big time patient hitter over the course of 2 days. I think he had to tweak something in his game to make a big turn around like that.

[CincyRedsFan30]

He went from swinging at every pitch to being a big time patient hitter over the course of 2 days. I think he had to tweak something in his game to make a big turn around like that.

Well, I agree that he obviously tweaked something in his game, but I don't think it was just a matter of "ignore coaches... turn patient". I think his work with Chambliss finally started paying off.

I think he was pressing too much trying to improve his game even more over last year and was struggling as a result, but I think he's finally figured out how to do what he did last year ALONG with the "new" things he has been working on with Chambliss. It seems like he's starting to add a few extra doubles to his repertoire.(To go with the walks and homers)

EDIT: The stats. so far even show these changes. He is on pace to hit 65 doubles this year(at this point). If that amount held up, he'd have more doubles this year than in the prior two years COMBINED.

[AdamDunn#44]

I agree with that.

Whatever he did, I like it.

[CincyRedsFan30]

I think we are all going to like it for most of the rest of the year.

I think he will be a fairly consistent player for the remainder of the year.

[redsrbetter]

I am just not feeling what Casey has done right now. The thing I cannot complain about though is that he is at least putting wood to white circle with red thread. But that round thing is not touching grass, it is hitting dirt then leather a lot this year. Casey favorite color is going to have to be green for a while.

Dunn on the other hand has been real good lately as pointed out. I really like his approach finally, as I agree with AD44 that he was not as patient in the early going. I too, think he has combined the aggressiveness taught this year by Chambliss, with his old approach. Could lead to a big man making big contact or waiting for his pitch and not getting it, which turns into a walk.

As far as my lineup and Felo batting second. I wanted a change in the Griffey idea and I also wanted to see Felo get some more ABs to get back into a groove. I reallly think he has not hit too well, because he has not gotten regular ABs. So I would put him 2nd. Dunn would be our best bet, but I did not want to go back to having Casey or Randa hitting 3rd. They both need to slide down the order for a little while. Randa was hot when he was hitting lower than 4th. He has hit .227 the last seven games. .412 hitting 6th. .276 hitting 4th. .000 hitting 3rd.

Another interesting stat: DJ vs. lefty .500 OBP/ .438 AVG.
vs. righty .183 OBP/ .100 AVG

[NFLman2033]

I'm not arguing with you Claussen, but didn't you say up until a few days ago that you were frustrated because of how poorly Dunn was playing? Well, Dunn is a patient hitter, yet he was slumping until recently.

Also, while I do agree that contact hitters might be more prone to slumps, when they are "on", they seem to have more "unstoppable" stretches than non-contact hitters(as a general rule).

And I agree about the strikeouts... they aren't a big deal, especially for someone like Dunn, who does so many other things.

I agree that it would be dumb to bat Lopez second right now. Here is what I want to see for now:

Freel 2B
Dunn LF
Pena RF
Griffey CF
LaRue C
Randa 3B
Lopez SS
Casey 1B

There is no way Miley will do anything like that, but it's what I want to see as of right NOW.

how is this for your short time lineup

Freel 2B
Dunn 1B
Pena RF
Griffey CF
Kearns RF
Randa 3B
LaRue C
Lopez SS

i say instead of batting Casey in the 8 hole, you might as well get all 4 of our OF's in there, Pena is way to hot to take out, Kearns has been productive when playing, but it is just getting over shadowed by Pena... and I think Jr just needs to hit 1 dinger to break his funk

[NFLman2033]

I am just not feeling what Casey has done right now. The thing I cannot complain about though is that he is at least putting wood to white circle with red thread. But that round thing is not touching grass, it is hitting dirt then leather a lot this year. Casey favorite color is going to have to be green for a while.

Dunn on the other hand has been real good lately as pointed out. I really like his approach finally, as I agree with AD44 that he was not as patient in the early going. I too, think he has combined the aggressiveness taught this year by Chambliss, with his old approach. Could lead to a big man making big contact or waiting for his pitch and not getting it, which turns into a walk.

As far as my lineup and Felo batting second. I wanted a change in the Griffey idea and I also wanted to see Felo get some more ABs to get back into a groove. I reallly think he has not hit too well, because he has not gotten regular ABs. So I would put him 2nd. Dunn would be our best bet, but I did not want to go back to having Casey or Randa hitting 3rd. They both need to slide down the order for a little while. Randa was hot when he was hitting lower than 4th. He has hit .227 the last seven games. .412 hitting 6th. .276 hitting 4th. .000 hitting 3rd.

Another interesting stat: DJ vs. righty .500 OBP/ .438 AVG.
vs. lefty .183 OBP/ .100 AVG

are you sure that DJ stat isn't flipped, because he would have had to have faced more Lefties than Righties, and that would mean with those nubmers he would probably be hitting 300

[redsrbetter]

are you sure that DJ stat isn't flipped, because he would have had to have faced more Lefties than Righties, and that would mean with those nubmers he would probably be hitting 300

Thanks I corrected it.

[NFLman2033]

Thanks I corrected it.

lol.. so maybe DJ should stop batting Left handed, and just be Right Handed all the time.. see how that works

[redsrbetter]

Yep that is what I have been saying. I know if you are a switch hitter it is a lot easier to see the ball from the opposite side of the plate. I have my own personal experiences with that. But DJ just can't get it done from the left side at all. Which really stinks because the majority of pitchers out there are right handed. But it is a indisputable problem right now and something needs to be done.