Cubs need a healthy rotation

[redsrbetter]

Phil Rogers On Baseball Healthy dose of reality
Mark Prior has to stay off the DL for the Cubs to succeed

"MESA, Ariz. -- On the first two days of workouts, two Cubs were conspicuously absent from the crowd of pitchers climbing on and off the 10 practice mounds at Fitch Park.

Guess which two?

That's right: Kerry Wood and Mark Prior.

If all the exams in college had been this easy, I would have been on the dean's list. The absence of Wood and Prior is about as stunning as rush-hour traffic on the Kennedy or an increase in the price of bleacher tickets, and just about as welcome too.

It's safe to say the buzz in Mesa remains a little different than it was at the start of camp in 2004, when the Cubs were coming off a championship series and had added Greg Maddux to a rotation of Carlos Zambrano, Wood and Prior. The sight of those guys all on these mounds … well, it's safe to say that not even the worst pessimists could have seen 89- and 79-victory seasons coming.

"The best I've ever felt about our team was when spring training started in 2004," general manager Jim Hendry said. "We were coming off a great season, we had just signed Greg, and then, boom, the second day of camp Mark went down."

Given the level of angst over the health of Prior and Wood the last two seasons, their limited availability at the moment constitutes only a Level 1 or 2 scare.

Wood wasn't expected to be working off a mound at the start of camp because he had shoulder surgery in late August. The best-case scenario for him is to fill the fifth starter's spot on April 15, so he has plenty of time to make that happen.

And Prior is starting slowly because of a mysterious, fatiguing illness over the winter, not more questions about his elbow or Achilles' tendon.

The outlook for both is good, which is probably why manager Dusty Baker is in such good spirits. Asked if this is a big year for him because his team missed the playoffs the last two seasons, he said, "Being out two years, that means I have about four or five [playoff] years in a row coming."

If anyone can make that happen, it is Prior.

While Carlos Zambrano was the horse in 2004 and '05, going 30-14 in 64 starts, Prior (17-11 in 48 starts those seasons) remains the most likely Cub to win a Cy Young Award. His 18-6 performance in 2003, when he was 22, is the best season of pitching during the Baker era, and he was only scratching the surface.

That's why it was Prior rather than Zambrano whom Baltimore GM Jim Duquette was asking for during the lengthy Miguel Tejada negotiations in December and January. One of the lingering perceptions from those talks is that the Cubs have begun to value Zambrano higher than Prior, but that's not correct.

They value both of them highly but were willing to consider giving one of them up because Hendry believes Tejada ranks behind only two other players, Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. You can argue you never should trade young pitchers who can dominate, but Tejada forced Hendry to consider making an exception.

No matter now. Prior and Zambrano have remained with the Cubs and will be here even if Hendry eventually succeeds in adding another hitter—say Tejada or Washington's Alfonso Soriano—this season.

For the Cubs to get in the playoffs, they need solid seasons from the three pitchers they should be able to count on—Prior, Zambrano and a fitter Maddux, who has made 33-plus starts for 10 straight seasons and is determined to miss more bats than last year when he went 13-15.

They might get a lot from Wood but aren't counting on it. He has made 30 starts just twice in eight seasons.

Prior gets lumped with Wood because of their stuff and injuries, but health-wise, that's unfair to Prior.

"Obviously I've had a rough couple of years," he said. "Some freak things … some of it I couldn't have prevented and maybe some I could have prevented."

With Wood already sidelined by a strained shoulder, a Brad Hawpe liner off Prior's elbow on May 27 was a death blow for last year's Cubs, who had started 21-24.

"That not only was frightening but very unfortunate for him and us," Baker said.

While Prior often has been injured, he has shown toughness. He pitched through Achilles' pain during the 2003 run, then returned in less than a month after the Hawpe liner. The initial report was a fracture, but he came back to make his last 18 scheduled starts, allowing more than three runs only twice.

If he has gotten rid of his bad luck, he still should achieve the greatness that has been forecast for him since he was a star at USC. He's not worried about having to work himself into shape in spring training.

"I expect to go out and have a good season," Prior said. "A great season."

Short of Tejada showing up on the doorstep, nothing would help the Cubs more."

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune....ck=1&cset=true

[Saber]

If you want healthy Cubs pitchers, fire Dusty.

[realmofotalk]

If you want healthy Cubs pitchers, fire Dusty.

Right, it's Dusty's fault that a line drive hit Mark Prior on the elbow and that Kerry Wood's arm was overworked in his rookie year and led to his arm problems.

[rockin500]

cubs need healthy pitchers. hint to phil rogers: every damned team needs a mostly healthy staff to win.

[Saber]

It's Dusty's fault that Zambrano and Prior ranked 2nd and 3rd respectively in Pitcher Abuse Points in 2005.

It's Dusty's fault that Zambrano ranked 3rd and Kerry Wood ranked 16th in 2004.

It's Dusty's fault that Wood ranked 2nd, Prior was ranked 4th, and Zambrano was ranked 10th in 2003.

Dusty kills pitchers.